Patrick Bodilly Kane1, Daniel M Benjamin2, Roger A Barker3, Anthony E Lang4, Todd Sherer5, Jonathan Kimmelman1. 1. Biomedical Ethics Unit, Studies of Translation, Ethics and Medicine (STREAM) Research Group, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada. 2. Information Sciences Institute, University of Southern California, Marina del Rey, California, USA. 3. John van Geest Centre for Brain Repair, Wellcome Trust/Medical Research Council (WT/MRC) Cambridge Stem Cell Institute, Department of Clinical Neuroscience, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom. 4. Edmond J. Safra Program in Parkinson's Disease and the Morton and Gloria Shulman Movement Disorders Clinic, Toronto Western Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. 5. The Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson's Research, New York, New York, USA.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Commentators suggest that patients have unrealistic expectations about the pace of research advances and that such expectations interfere with patient decision-making. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to compare expert expectations about the timing of research milestone attainment with those of patients who follow Parkinson's disease (PD) research. METHODS: Patients with PD and experts were asked to provide forecasts about 11 milestones in PD research in an online survey. PD experts were identified from a Michael J. Fox Foundation database, highly ranked neurology centers in the United States and Canada, and corresponding authors of articles on PD in top medical journals. Patients with PD were recruited through the Michael J. Fox Foundation. We tested whether patient forecasts differed on average from expert forecasts. We also tested whether differences between patient forecasts and the average expert forecasts were associated with any demographic factors. RESULTS: A total of 256 patients and 249 PD experts completed the survey. For 9 of the 11 milestones, patients' forecasts were on average higher than those of experts. Only exercise therapy met our 10% difference threshold for practical significance. Education was the only demographic that predicted patient deviations from expert forecasts on milestone forecasts. Patients offered significantly higher forecasts than experts that the clinical trials used in milestone queries would report positive primary outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Differences between patient and expert expectations about research milestones were generally minor, suggesting that there is little cause for concern that patients who follow PD research are unduly swayed by inaccurate representations of research advancement in the media or elsewhere.
BACKGROUND: Commentators suggest that patients have unrealistic expectations about the pace of research advances and that such expectations interfere with patient decision-making. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to compare expert expectations about the timing of research milestone attainment with those of patients who follow Parkinson's disease (PD) research. METHODS:Patients with PD and experts were asked to provide forecasts about 11 milestones in PD research in an online survey. PD experts were identified from a Michael J. Fox Foundation database, highly ranked neurology centers in the United States and Canada, and corresponding authors of articles on PD in top medical journals. Patients with PD were recruited through the Michael J. Fox Foundation. We tested whether patient forecasts differed on average from expert forecasts. We also tested whether differences between patient forecasts and the average expert forecasts were associated with any demographic factors. RESULTS: A total of 256 patients and 249 PD experts completed the survey. For 9 of the 11 milestones, patients' forecasts were on average higher than those of experts. Only exercise therapy met our 10% difference threshold for practical significance. Education was the only demographic that predicted patient deviations from expert forecasts on milestone forecasts. Patients offered significantly higher forecasts than experts that the clinical trials used in milestone queries would report positive primary outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Differences between patient and expert expectations about research milestones were generally minor, suggesting that there is little cause for concern that patients who follow PD research are unduly swayed by inaccurate representations of research advancement in the media or elsewhere.
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