Modelling competition in health care markets as a complex adaptive system: an agent-based framework.

Health market reforms necessitate continuous re-evaluation of initiatives, competitive regulations, and antitrust policies. Synergistic implications, evolution, and behaviour changes associated with the market competition are often overlooked due to methodological limitations. To rectify these limitations, parallels between defining features of health care markets (HCM) and complex adaptive systems (CAS) are drawn. The science of CAS develops complex system-level models of dynamic interactions to allow insights for heterogeneous agents and emergent behaviours. Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a computational tool of CAS science suitable for investigating competition in HCM. The proposed agent-based framework conceptualises agents, environment, and interactions, and formalises agent-specific attributes and modules that achieve agent roles to recreate HCM dynamics. The framework conceptualises competition in HCM into an implementable ABM for a CAS assessment, identifies data sources, and develops face-validity procedures. Developments in data, computational power, and decisions theory compel CAS approach to complement studies on pressing HCM issues. © Operational Research Society 2019.