| Literature DB >> 32938955 |
Riddhi P Doshi1,2, Kun Chen2,3, Fei Wang4, Harold Schwartz5,6, Alfred Herzog5, Robert H Aseltine7,8,9.
Abstract
Age-adjusted suicide rates in the US have increased over the past two decades across all age groups. The ability to identify risk factors for suicidal behavior is critical to selected and indicated prevention efforts among those at elevated risk of suicide. We used widely available statewide hospitalization data to identify and test the joint predictive power of clinical risk factors associated with death by suicide for patients previously hospitalized for a suicide attempt (N = 19,057). Twenty-eight clinical factors from the prior suicide attempt were found to be significantly associated with the hazard of subsequent suicide mortality. These risk factors and their two-way interactions were used to build a joint predictive model via stepwise regression, in which the predicted individual survival probability was found to be a valid measure of risk for later suicide death. A high-risk group with a four-fold increase in suicide mortality risk was identified based on the out-of-sample predicted survival probabilities. This study demonstrates that the combination of state-level hospital discharge and mortality data can be used to identify suicide attempters who are at high risk of subsequent suicide death.Entities:
Year: 2020 PMID: 32938955 PMCID: PMC7495431 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-71320-3
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Sci Rep ISSN: 2045-2322 Impact factor: 4.379
Characteristics of the study population.
| All patients with prior attempt | Prior attempters dying by suicide within study period | Prior attempters not dying by suicide within study period | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N | % | N | % | N | % | |
| Total | 19,057 | 100.0 | 571 | 3.0 | 18,486 | 97.0 |
| 18–29 | 5,577 | 29.3 | 109 | 19.1 | 5,468 | 29.6 |
| 30–44 | 6,382 | 33.5 | 214 | 37.5 | 6,168 | 33.4 |
| 45–59 | 5,881 | 30.9 | 227 | 39.8 | 5,654 | 30.6 |
| 60 + | 1,217 | 6.4 | 21 | 3.7 | 1,196 | 6.5 |
| Male | 8,840 | 46.4 | 393 | 68.8 | 8,447 | 45.7 |
| Female | 10,217 | 53.6 | 178 | 31.2 | 10,039 | 54.3 |
| Black | 1,957 | 10.2 | 8 | 1.4 | 1,949 | 10.5 |
| Asian | 128 | 0.7 | 1 | 0.2 | 127 | 0.7 |
| Hispanic | 2,472 | 13.0 | 4 | 0.7 | 2,468 | 13.4 |
| White | 13,909 | 73.0 | 557 | 97.5 | 13,352 | 72.2 |
| Other | 589 | 3.1 | 1 | 0.2 | 588 | 3.2 |
| Mean | SD | Mean | SD | Mean | SD | |
| 65,002 | 26,479 | 71,512 | 27,563 | 64,801 | 26,421 | |
Characteristics of the study population.
| All patients with prior attempt | Prior attempters dying by suicide within study period | Prior attempters not dying by suicide within study period | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N | % | N | % | N | % | |
| 1 | 16,309 | 85.6 | 459 | 80.4 | 15,850 | 85.7 |
| > 1 | 2,748 | 14.4 | 112 | 19.6 | 2,636 | 14.3 |
| Poisoning | 14,542 | 76.3 | 431 | 75.5 | 14,111 | 76.3 |
| Hanging | 279 | 1.5 | 18 | 3.2 | 261 | 1.4 |
| Firearms | 123 | 0.6 | 1 | 0.2 | 122 | 0.7 |
| Cutting | 3,235 | 17.0 | 99 | 17.3 | 3,136 | 17.0 |
| Jumping | 148 | 0.8 | 4 | 0.7 | 144 | 0.8 |
| Drowning | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 5 | 0.0 |
| Other | 725 | 3.8 | 18 | 3.2 | 707 | 3.8 |
| Mood disorders | 10,356 | 54.3 | 316 | 55.3 | 10,040 | 54.3 |
| Psychotic disorders | 343 | 1.8 | 14 | 2.5 | 329 | 1.8 |
| Anxiety disorders | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 6 | 0.0 |
| Substance abuse disorders | 1,295 | 6.8 | 34 | 6.0 | 1,261 | 6.8 |
Results from marginal variable screening analysis and Cox proportional hazards model predicting time to suicide death among suicide attempters.
| Marginal screening results | Cox proportional hazards results d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n c | Hazards ratio | CI lower | CI upper | Exp | CI lower | CI upper | |||
| Agea | – | – | – | – | – | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | < .0001 |
| Sexa (Male = 1) | – | – | – | – | – | 2.7 | 2.3 | 3.3 | < .0001 |
| Race (White) a | – | – | – | – | – | 24.5 | 11.6 | 51.9 | < .0001 |
| Median household income ($65,002) | N/A | 1.1 | 1 | 1.2 | 0.047 | 1.1 | 1 | 1.2 | 0.042 |
| Multiple suicide attempts | 2,748 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.001 | 1.1 | 1 | 1.1 | 0.172 |
| Discharged/transferred to a psychiatric hospital or psychiatric distinct part unit of a hospital | 3,353 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 0.001 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 21.8 | < .0001 |
| Discharged/transferred to another type of institution for inpatient care | 2,197 | 1.2 | 1 | 1.5 | 0.035 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.150 |
| Other persons seeking consultation | 166 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 4.8 | 0.003 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 4.4 | 0.008 |
| Non-operative intubation and irrigation b | 2,619 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 0.009 | – | – | – | – |
| Other operations on bones, except facial bones | 37 | 2.7 | 1 | 7.3 | 0.046 | 18.7 | 1.38 | 253.5 | 0.028 |
| Operations on esophagus | 23 | 5.8 | 2 | 14.5 | 0.001 | 5 | 1.9 | 13.6 | 0.001 |
| Operations on penis | 9 | 8.4 | 2.1 | 33.7 | 0.003 | 8.2 | 2 | 34.4 | 0.004 |
| Operations on tongue | 9 | 8.3 | 2 | 33.2 | 0.003 | 6 | 1.1 | 32.5 | 0.037 |
| Operations on the breast b | 7 | 7.2 | 1 | 51.6 | 0.048 | – | – | – | – |
| Aortic and heart assistant procedures except pulsation balloon without MCC | 12 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 18 | 0.034 | 6.6 | 0.9 | 49.7 | 0.067 |
| Suicide attempt by hanging | 299 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 3 | 0.009 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 0.080 |
| Accidental poisoning by drugs, medicinal substances, and biologicals | 2,758 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1 | 0.025 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.002 |
| Injury undetermined whether accidentally or purposely inflicted | 2,287 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.002 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.005 |
| Other psychosocial circumstances | 2,219 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 0.001 | 1.4 | 1.01 | 1.8 | 0.023 |
| Poisoning and toxic effects of drugs with major comorbid condition (MCC) | 2,209 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 0.012 | 1.3 | 0.99 | 1.7 | 0.084 |
| Toxic effects of alcohol b | 1,378 | 1.4 | 1 | 1.8 | 0.025 | – | – | – | – |
| Other and unspecified disorders of back | 849 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.027 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.005 |
| Poisoning by primarily systemic agents | 813 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 0.023 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 0.303 |
| Other nonorganic psychoses | 329 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 0.028 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 0.141 |
| Accidental poisoning by other solid and liquid substances, gases, and vapors | 276 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 0.015 | 1.7 | 1 | 3 | 0.051 |
| Organic sleep disorders | 202 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 3.8 | 0.010 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 3.7 | 0.013 |
| Open wound of other and unspecified sites except limbs | 169 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 0.031 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 0.554 |
| Human immunodeficiency virus | 123 | 2.1 | 1 | 4.5 | 0.048 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 4 | 0.121 |
| Multiple sclerosis | 97 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 6.5 | 0.001 | 0.4 | 0 | 4.5 | 0.478 |
| Seizures without MCC | 16 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 21.1 | 0.019 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 17.3 | 0.042 |
| Disorders of the pancreas except malignancy without MCC b | 15 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 20.2 | 0.023 | – | – | – | – |
| Multiple sclerosis with other nonorganic psychoses | – | – | – | – | – | 63.4 | 6.8 | 588.3 | < .0001 |
| Other nonorganic psychoses with open wound of other and unspecified sites except limbs | – | – | – | – | – | 15.1 | 1.7 | 137.5 | < .0001 |
| Other psychosocial circumstances with other operations on bones, except facial bones | – | – | – | – | – | 14.8 | 1.5 | 146.6 | < .0001 |
| Hanging with other and unspecified disorders of back | – | – | – | – | – | 9.8 | 2.1 | 46.6 | 0.004 |
| Number of visits with aortic and heart assistant procedures except pulsation balloon without MCC | – | – | – | – | – | 9.1 | 2 | 40.1 | 0.004 |
| Accidental poisoning by drugs, medicinal substances, and biologicals with open wound of other and unspecified sites except limbs | – | – | – | – | – | 8.3 | 1 | 71.6 | 0.053 |
| Accidental poisoning by other solid and liquid substances, gases, and vapors with poisoning by primarily systemic agents | – | – | – | – | – | 7 | 1.4 | 34.7 | 0.016 |
| Accidental poisoning by drugs, medicinal substances, and biologicals with other and unspecified disorders of back | – | – | – | – | – | 3.4 | 1.3 | 9.1 | 0.016 |
| Poisoning and toxic effects of drugs with MCC with poisoning by primarily systemic agents | – | – | – | – | – | 2.3 | 0.9 | 5.7 | 0.076 |
| Operations on tongue with median income | – | – | – | – | – | 2.2 | 0.9 | 5.8 | 0.093 |
| Age with accidental poisoning by drugs, medicinal substances, and biologicals | – | – | – | – | – | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.125 |
| White race with discharged/transferred to a psychiatric hospital or psychiatric distinct part unit of a hospital | – | – | – | – | – | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.001 |
| Multiple sclerosis with median income | – | – | – | – | – | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.042 |
| White race with other operations on bones, except facial bones | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 0.005 |
aAge, sex, and race were not included in the marginal screening analysis.
bThese procedures/diagnoses were not selected for inclusion in the final Cox proportional hazards model.
cThis column presents the number of patients in the analysis with this characteristic.
dWe caution against the interpretation of individual parameter significances in this specification of the model since the computation of the p-values does not account for the uncertainty in predictor selection.
Summary of risk and protective factors associated with death by suicide among previous attempters.
| Demographic factors | Contextual features of the prior attempt |
|---|---|
| Older age | Multiple suicide attempts |
| Male sex | Discharged/transferred to a psychiatric hospital or psychiatric unit of a hospital |
| White race | Discharged/transferred to another type of institution for inpatient care |
| Higher median household income | Others persons seeking consultation |
Entries in italics were not selected in the final Cox proportional hazards model. A minus sign (−) indicates a protective factor in which this characteristic was associated with lower risk of subsequent mortality.
Figure 1The probability cutoff, the size of the high-risk group relative to the general cohort, and the increase in suicide risk.
Figure 2Out-of-sample mean ROC curve and its 90% confidence bands computed from the random splitting procedure.