Multiple stressors and data deficient populations; a comparative life-history approach sheds new light on the extinction risk of the highly vulnerable Baltic harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena).

Many endangered marine mammal populations are difficult to study, spread out over large areas, and capturing them for branding and research purposes would be unethical. Yet, they are in urgent need for assessment and conservation actions. We suggest collecting data from other more abundant populations of the same species, with careful consideration of body size, age at sexual maturity, and ecological conditions to produce scientifically sound best approximations of vital rates of data deficient endangered populations. The genetically distinct Baltic Sea harbour porpoise population amounts to about 500 animals and is classified as 'Critically Endangered' according to the IUCN red list. Data deficiency on nearly all demographic parameters have precluded systematic investigations of the relative importance of stressors affecting population viability. We took a comparative life history approach and investigated the phenotypic plasticity in somatic and demographic vital rates of seven larger, well studied North Atlantic harbour porpoise populations, enabling us to approximate the missing pieces of the life history of the Baltic population. We parameterized a stochastic, individual-based population model, and performed a population viability analysis for a range of biologically realistic parameter values and scenarios of environmental stressors. The baseline scenario was based on the most representative samples of healthy harbour porpoise populations and challenged with three different levels of bycatches. Due to high levels of endocrine disruptive contaminants observed in Baltic harbour porpoises, we also investigated the effect of a possible reduction in fecundity. Subsequently, the combined effects of bycatches and reduced fecundity were investigated in terms of population growth rate and quasi-extinction risk. The Baltic harbour porpoise population is viable in the baseline scenario without anthropogenic stressors. However, even the lowest estimated bycatch level of 7 individuals per year will lead to a population collapse to ≤50 animals with high probability (0.4-1.0) over the next century, assuming an intermediate or low (<73%) fecundity. Adult survival is of critical importance and mitigation of fishery impacts and reduction of anthropogenic disturbances in the identified main breeding areas are recommended.