Antonio La Marca1, Martina Capuzzo2, Valeria Donno2, Mario Mignini Renzini3, Cinzia Del Giovane4, Roberto D'Amico2, Sesh Kamal Sunkara5. 1. Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences of the Mother, Children and Adults, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Policlinico, Via del Pozzo 71, 41124 Modena, Italy; Clinica EUGIN, Via Nobili 188/F, 41126, Modena, Italy. Electronic address: antonio.lamarca@unimore.it. 2. Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences of the Mother, Children and Adults, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Policlinico, Via del Pozzo 71, 41124 Modena, Italy. 3. Clinica EUGIN, Via Nobili 188/F, 41126, Modena, Italy; Biogenesi, Reproductive Medicine Centre, Monza, Italy. 4. Institute of Primary Health Care (BIHAM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland. 5. Department of Women's Health, Faculty of Life Sciences and Medicine, King's College London, Strand Campus, Strand, London, UK.
Abstract
RESEARCH QUESTION: How much the variability in patients' response during in vitro fertilization (IVF) may add to the initial predicted prognosis based only on patients' basal characteristics? DESIGN: Anonymous data were obtained from the Human Fertilization and Embryology Authority (HFEA). Data involving 114,882 stimulated fresh IVF cycles were retrospectively analyzed. Logistic regression was used to develop the models. RESULTS: Prediction of live birth was feasible with moderate accuracy in all of the three models; discrimination of the model based only on basal patients' characteristics (AUROC 0.61) was markedly improved adding information of number of embryos (AUROC 0.65) and, mostly, number of oocytes (AUROC 0.66). CONCLUSIONS: The addition to prediction models of parameters such as the number of embryos obtained and especially the number of oocytes retrieved can statistically significantly improve the overall prediction of live birth probabilities when based on only basal patients' characteristics. This seems to be particularly true for women after the first IVF cycle. Since ovarian response affects the probability of live birth in IVF, it is highly recommended to add markers of ovarian response to models based on basal characteristics to increase their predictive ability.
RESEARCH QUESTION: How much the variability in patients' response during in vitro fertilization (IVF) may add to the initial predicted prognosis based only on patients' basal characteristics? DESIGN: Anonymous data were obtained from the Human Fertilization and Embryology Authority (HFEA). Data involving 114,882 stimulated fresh IVF cycles were retrospectively analyzed. Logistic regression was used to develop the models. RESULTS: Prediction of live birth was feasible with moderate accuracy in all of the three models; discrimination of the model based only on basal patients' characteristics (AUROC 0.61) was markedly improved adding information of number of embryos (AUROC 0.65) and, mostly, number of oocytes (AUROC 0.66). CONCLUSIONS: The addition to prediction models of parameters such as the number of embryos obtained and especially the number of oocytes retrieved can statistically significantly improve the overall prediction of live birth probabilities when based on only basal patients' characteristics. This seems to be particularly true for women after the first IVF cycle. Since ovarian response affects the probability of live birth in IVF, it is highly recommended to add markers of ovarian response to models based on basal characteristics to increase their predictive ability.
Authors: Véronika Grzegorczyk-Martin; Julie Roset; Pierre Di Pizio; Thomas Fréour; Paul Barrière; Jean Luc Pouly; Michael Grynberg; Isabelle Parneix; Catherine Avril; Joe Pacheco; Tomasz M Grzegorczyk Journal: J Assist Reprod Genet Date: 2022-06-29 Impact factor: 3.357