How to achieve a win-win situation between economic growth and carbon emission reduction: empirical evidence from the perspective of industrial structure upgrading.

Over the past 40 years since China's reform and opening up, the industrial structure has undergone tremendous changes. The rapid development of the economy has been accompanied by a surge in carbon emissions. How to achieve a win-win situation for economic growth and carbon emissions reduction has aroused widespread concern from all sectors of society. Here, this paper discusses the dynamic relationship of industrial structure upgrading, economic growth, and carbon emission reduction. Results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among industrial structure upgrading, economic growth, and carbon emissions. In the short term, when the three variables deviate from the long-term equilibrium state, the non-equilibrium state will be pulled back to equilibrium with the adjustment strength of - 0.0633, - 0.0097, and 0.0013. Carbon emission reduction promotes industrial structure upgrading. Industrial structure upgrading has a greater positive impact on economic growth. Industrial structure upgrading and economic growth have a negative impact on carbon emissions, thereby promoting emission reduction. And at the 10% significance level, there is a one-way Granger causality from carbon emissions to industrial structure upgrading, economic growth can cause one-way changes in carbon emissions, and industrial structure upgrading is a one-way Granger cause of economic growth. Finally, several carbon emission reduction policies are proposed promote industrial restructuring and sustainable economic development.