Enayet Karim Chowdhury1,2, Michael E Ernst3, Mark Nelson1,4, Karen Margolis5, Lawrie J Beilin6, Collin Johnston7, Robyn Woods1, Anne Murray8,9, Rory Wolfe1, Elsdon Storey1, Raj C Shah10, Jessica Lockery1, Andrew Tonkin1, Anne Newman11, Walter Abhayaratna12, Nigel Stocks13, Sharyn Fitzgerald1, Suzanne Orchard1, Ruth Trevaks1, Geoffrey Donnan14, R Grimm9, John McNeil1, Christopher M Reid1,2. 1. Department of Epidemiology & Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria. 2. School of Public Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia. 3. Department of Pharmacy Practice and Science, College of Pharmacy and Department of Family Medicine, Carver College of Medicine, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, USA. 4. Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart TAS, Australia. 5. HealthPartners Institute, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA. 6. School of Medicine, Royal Perth Hospital, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia. 7. Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, Australia. 8. Berman Center for Outcomes and Clinical Research, Hennepin Healthcare Research Institute (HHRI), Hennepin Healthcare. 9. Division of Geriatrics, Department of Medicine, Hennepin Healthcare and University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota. 10. Department of Family Medicine and Rush Alzheimer's Disease Center, Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, Illinois. 11. Center for Aging and Population Health, Department of Epidemiology, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, USA. 12. College of Health and Medicine, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT. 13. Discipline of General Practice, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA. 14. Florey Institute of Neuroscience and Mental Health, University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: The AHA/ACC-2017 hypertension guideline recommends an age-independent target blood pressure (BP) of less than 130/80 mmHg. In an elderly cohort without established cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline, we determined the impact of this guideline on the prevalence of hypertension and associated CVD risk. METHODS: Nineteen thousand, one hundred and fourteen participants aged at least 65 years from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study were grouped by baseline BP: 'pre-2017 hypertensive' (BP ≥140/90 mmHg and/or on antihypertensive drugs); 'reclassified hypertensive' (normotensive by pre-2017 guidelines; hypertensive by AHA/ACC-2017 guideline), and 'normotensive' (BP <130 and <80 mmHg). For each group, we evaluated CVD risk factors, predicted 10-year CVD risk using the Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk equation, and reported observed CVD event rates during a median 4.7-year follow-up. RESULTS: Overall, 74.4% (14 213/19 114) were 'pre-2017 hypertensive'; an additional 12.3% (2354/19 114) were 'reclassified hypertensive' by the AHA/ACC-2017 guideline. Of those 'reclassified hypertensive', the majority (94.5%) met criteria for antihypertensive treatment although 29% had no other traditional CVD risk factors other than age. Further, a relatively lower mean 10-year predicted CVD risk (18% versus 26%, P < 0.001) and lower CVD rates (8.9 versus 12.1/1000 person-years, P = 0.01) were observed in 'reclassified hypertensive' compared with 'pre-2017 hypertensive'. Compared with 'normotensive', a hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for CVD events of 1.60 (1.26-2.02) for 'pre-2017 hypertensive' and 1.26 (0.93-1.71) for 'reclassified hypertensive' was observed. CONCLUSION: Applying current CVD risk calculators in the elderly 'reclassified hypertensive', as a result of shifting the BP threshold lower, increases eligibility for antihypertensive treatment but documented CVD rates remain lower than hypertensive patients defined by pre2017 BP thresholds.
OBJECTIVES: The AHA/ACC-2017 hypertension guideline recommends an age-independent target blood pressure (BP) of less than 130/80 mmHg. In an elderly cohort without established cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline, we determined the impact of this guideline on the prevalence of hypertension and associated CVD risk. METHODS: Nineteen thousand, one hundred and fourteen participants aged at least 65 years from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study were grouped by baseline BP: 'pre-2017 hypertensive' (BP ≥140/90 mmHg and/or on antihypertensive drugs); 'reclassified hypertensive' (normotensive by pre-2017 guidelines; hypertensive by AHA/ACC-2017 guideline), and 'normotensive' (BP <130 and <80 mmHg). For each group, we evaluated CVD risk factors, predicted 10-year CVD risk using the Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk equation, and reported observed CVD event rates during a median 4.7-year follow-up. RESULTS: Overall, 74.4% (14 213/19 114) were 'pre-2017 hypertensive'; an additional 12.3% (2354/19 114) were 'reclassified hypertensive' by the AHA/ACC-2017 guideline. Of those 'reclassified hypertensive', the majority (94.5%) met criteria for antihypertensive treatment although 29% had no other traditional CVD risk factors other than age. Further, a relatively lower mean 10-year predicted CVD risk (18% versus 26%, P < 0.001) and lower CVD rates (8.9 versus 12.1/1000 person-years, P = 0.01) were observed in 'reclassified hypertensive' compared with 'pre-2017 hypertensive'. Compared with 'normotensive', a hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for CVD events of 1.60 (1.26-2.02) for 'pre-2017 hypertensive' and 1.26 (0.93-1.71) for 'reclassified hypertensive' was observed. CONCLUSION: Applying current CVD risk calculators in the elderly 'reclassified hypertensive', as a result of shifting the BP threshold lower, increases eligibility for antihypertensive treatment but documented CVD rates remain lower than hypertensive patients defined by pre2017 BP thresholds.
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