| Literature DB >> 32695974 |
Nuccia Morici1,2, Gianfranco Alicandro2,3, Luca A Ferri4, Luigi Piatti5, Daniele Grosseto6, Paolo Sganzerla7, Giovanni Tortorella8, Maurizio Ferrario9, Gabriele Crimi10, Irene Bossi11, Stefano Tondi12, Anna Sonia Petronio13, Matteo Mariani14, Anna Toso15, Amelia Ravera16, Elena Corrada17, Davide Cao17, Leonardo Di Ascenzo18, Carlo La Vecchia2, Stefano De Servi19, Stefano Savonitto5.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The residual burden of coronary artery disease after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has been associated with worse ischemic outcome. However, data are conflicting in elderly patients. The aim of our study was to verify the incremental value of the residual Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX) score (rSS) over clinical variables and baseline SYNTAX score (bSS) in predicting 1-year mortality or cardiovascular events.Entities:
Year: 2020 PMID: 32695974 PMCID: PMC7365822 DOI: 10.1016/j.cjco.2020.03.005
Source DB: PubMed Journal: CJC Open ISSN: 2589-790X
Baseline clinical characteristics
| rSS 0-8 (n = 392) | rSS > 8 (n = 238) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Age, y | 79 (76-83) | 81 (78-85) | < 0.001 |
| Male sex | 250 (63.8) | 146 (61.3) | 0.540 |
| Body mass index (kg/m2) | 25.5 (23.5-27.8) | 25.7 (23.6-28.4) | 0.485 |
| Family history of cardiovascular disease | 63 (16.1) | 20 (8.4) | 0.006 |
| Diabetes | 111 (28.3) | 74 (31.1) | 0.458 |
| Hypertension | 292 (74.5) | 194 (81.5) | 0.042 |
| Hypercholesterolemia | 154 (39.3) | 113 (47.5) | 0.044 |
| Current smoker | 30 (7.6) | 19 (7.9) | 0.881 |
| Chronic respiratory failure | 16 (4.1) | 11 (4.6) | 0.745 |
| Liver disease | 5 (1.3) | 4 (1.7) | 0.678 |
| eGFR at admission (mL/min) | 69.3 (53.6-85.1) | 61.7 (48.9-80.8) | 0.005 |
| Hemoglobin at admission (g/dL) | |||
| Males | 14 (13-15) | 13.8 (12.6-14.6) | 0.055 |
| Females | 12.5 (11.7-13.8) | 12.2 (11.7-13.2) | 0.070 |
| Neurological disorders | 15 (3.8) | 4 (1.7) | 0.127 |
| Malignancies | 9 (2.3) | 6 (2.5) | 0.857 |
| Previous cardiovascular events | |||
| Myocardial infarction | 54 (13.8) | 52 (26.0) | < 0.001 |
| PCI | 61 (15.6) | 45 (18.9) | 0.276 |
| Peripheral vascular disease | 32 (8.2) | 24 (10.1) | 0.411 |
| Atrial fibrillation | 13 (3.3) | 9 (3.8) | 0.758 |
| Ongoing cardiovascular medications | |||
| Aspirin | 184 (46.9) | 119 (47.2) | 0.133 |
| Clopidogrel | 92 (11.9) | 42 (13.6) | 0.161 |
| Beta-blockers | 121 (30.8) | 89 (37.4) | 0.078 |
| Calcium antagonists | 99 (25.3) | 66 (27.3) | 0.088 |
| ACEIs or ARBs | 200 (51.0) | 137 (57.6) | 0.117 |
| Diuretics | 109 (27.8) | 65 (27.3) | 0.109 |
| Nitrates | 39 (9.9) | 49 (20.6) | < 0.001 |
| Statins | 111 (28.3) | 102 (42.9) | 0.001 |
Data are no. (%) for categorical variables and median (IQR) for continuous variables.
ACEI, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor; ARB, angiotensin-receptor antagonist; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; PCI, percutaneous coronary intervention; rSS, residual SYNTAX score.
eGFR by the Cockroft–Gault formula.
Characteristics of index ACS event
| rSS 0-8 (n = 392) | rSS > 8 (n = 238) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Left ventricular ejection fraction | 50 (45-55) | 50 (40-55) | 0.548 |
| Coronary angiography | |||
| Radial access | 320 (81.6) | 180 (75.6) | 0.071 |
| Left main | 77 (19.6) | 63 (26.5) | 0.046 |
| Procedural treatment | |||
| Stenting | 381 (97.4) | 222 (94.9) | 0.035 |
| Drug-eluting balloons | 8 (2.1) | 4 (1.7) | 0.760 |
| Plain balloon angioplasty | 6 (1.5) | 10 (4.3) | 0.037 |
| Procedural success | 378 (96.4) | 227 (95.4) | 0.794 |
| Length of hospital stay (d) | 6 (5-8) | 6 (5-10) | 0.183 |
| Periprocedural medications | |||
| Aspirin | 359 (91.6) | 223 (93.7) | 0.557 |
| Glycoprotein IIb/IIIa antagonists | 77 (19.6) | 43 (18.1) | 0.880 |
| Unfractionated heparin | 330 (84.2) | 176 (73.9) | 0.005 |
| Low-molecular-weight heparin | 65 (16.6) | 60 (25.1) | 0.031 |
| Bivalirudin | 24 (6.1) | 17 (7.1) | 0.878 |
| Medications at discharge | |||
| Aspirin | 385 (98.2) | 228 (95.8) | 0.117 |
| Proton pump inhibitors | 362 (92.3) | 209 (97.8) | 0.068 |
| Beta-blockers | 304 (77.5) | 191 (80.2) | 0.040 |
| Calcium antagonists | 87 (22.2) | 51 (21.4) | 0.117 |
| ACEIs or ARBs | 329 (83.9) | 184 (77.3) | 0.039 |
| Diuretics | 135 (34.4) | 103 (43.3) | 0.005 |
| Nitrates | 42 (10.7) | 37 (15.5) | 0.019 |
| Statins | 365 (93.1) | 221 (92.8) | 0.056 |
| Oral anticoagulant | 8 (2.0) | 9 (3.8) | 0.047 |
Data are no. (%) for categorical variables and median (IQR) for continuous variables.
ACEI, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor; ACS, acute coronary syndrome; ARB, angiotensin-receptor antagonist; rSS, residual SYNTAX score.
Figure 1Kaplan–Meier estimates of the cumulative incidence functions of the combined outcome (cardiovascular event or death) according to residual Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX) score (rSS). Log-rank test P value for comparison between cumulative incidence functions.
HRs and 95% CIs of 1-year mortality or cardiovascular event estimated from multivariable Cox regression models
| Predictors | Core model | Model including only rSS | Core model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Age (y) | 1.08 (1.03-1.13) | - | 1.08 (1.03-1.14) |
| Prior MI | 2.15 (1.25-3.69) | - | 2.02 (1.17-3.49) |
| STEMI | 1.87 (1.14-3.06) | - | 1.88 (1.14-3.09) |
| bSS | 1.04 (1.01-1.06) | - | - |
| rSS | - | 1.06 (1.03-1.08) | 1.05 (1.02-1.07) |
| AIC | 822 | 832 | 819 |
| 0.690 | 0.644 | 0.700 | |
| Optimism-corrected | 0.681 | 0.643 | 0.691 |
AIC, Akaike information criterion; BMI, body mass index; bSS, baseline SYNTAX score; CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio; MI, myocardial infarction; rSS, residual SYNTAX score; SE, standard error; STEMI, ST-elevation myocardial infarction.
The core model included only the predictors that had an HR < 0.8 or > 1.2 (for binary variables) and a P value < 0.10 in a starting model including terms for sex, age, previous myocardial infarction, type of acute coronary syndrome, diabetes, peripheral vascular disease, and chronic pulmonary disease.
Clinical utility of the prediction models at different plausible threshold probabilities of 1-year mortality or cardiovascular event
| Core model | sNB | Core model | Change in sNB (95% CI) | Model 3 vs Model 1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model including only rSS (Model 2) | Model 2 vs Model 1 | ||||
| 0.10 | 0.38 | 0.36 | 0.47 | −0.02 (−0.16 to 0.11) | 0.09 (0.02-0.16) |
| 0.20 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 0.11 | −0.12 (−0.28 to 0.04) | −0.06 (−0.19 to 0.07) |
| 0.30 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.07 | −0.03 (−0.13 to 0.06) | 0.02 (−0.06 to 0.09) |
bSS, baseline SYNTAX score; rSS, residual SYNTAX score; sNB, standardized net benefit.
The core model included age, prior myocardial infarction and type of acute coronary syndrome as predictors.
Figure 2Decision curves with standardized net benefit (sNB) computed using the predictions obtained from 3 different models: (1) a core model plus the baseline Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX) score (bSS); (2) a model including only the rSS; (3) a core model plus the rSS. The core model included age, prior myocardial infarction (MI), and type of acute coronary syndrome. The sNB is also shown for the 2 extreme conditions, that is, all patients assumed to be at high risk and all patients assumed to be at low risk.