Muhammad Fawad1,2, Sumaira Mubarik3, Saima Shakil Malik4, Yangyang Hao2, Chuanhua Yu3, Jingli Ren1. 1. Henan Academy of Big Data, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450052, People's Republic of China. 2. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, People's Republic of China. 3. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430071, People's Republic of China. 4. Department of Zoology, University of Gujrat, Gujrat 50700, Pakistan.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was detected by researchers from a patient in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, in December 2019, and broke out in January 2020. Then, the pandemic was detected in countries around the world. Therefore, precise estimates of its current and future trends are highly required for future policy implications. METHODS: We retrieved data from the Health Commission of Hubei, China. Logistic-S curve model was used to estimate the current and future trends of SARS-CoV-2-infected cases among 16 cities of Hubei, China from Jan-11 to Feb-24, 2020. RESULTS: Out of 64,287 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Hubei, higher percentage of cases were in Wuhan and Xiaogan. The highest death percentage was found in Wuhan and Qianjiang. A significant percentage of cures were found in Enshi Prefecture and Huanggang, while Wuhan showed the lowest percentage of cures. Rising trends in infected cases were observed throughout the study period, particularly in Wuhan, and a higher trend was observed after 12-Feb. Gradual decline trend of SARS-CoV-2 cases was observed during Feb-25 to Mar-15 in Hubei Province. Future forecast showed that the average number of SARS-CoV-2-infected cases might be decreased or stable in Hubei in the coming 20 days. CONCLUSION: The public must take precautionary measures in order to control and prevent disease spread and avoid extra travelling.
OBJECTIVE: A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was detected by researchers from a patient in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, in December 2019, and broke out in January 2020. Then, the pandemic was detected in countries around the world. Therefore, precise estimates of its current and future trends are highly required for future policy implications. METHODS: We retrieved data from the Health Commission of Hubei, China. Logistic-S curve model was used to estimate the current and future trends of SARS-CoV-2-infected cases among 16 cities of Hubei, China from Jan-11 to Feb-24, 2020. RESULTS: Out of 64,287 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Hubei, higher percentage of cases were in Wuhan and Xiaogan. The highest death percentage was found in Wuhan and Qianjiang. A significant percentage of cures were found in Enshi Prefecture and Huanggang, while Wuhan showed the lowest percentage of cures. Rising trends in infected cases were observed throughout the study period, particularly in Wuhan, and a higher trend was observed after 12-Feb. Gradual decline trend of SARS-CoV-2 cases was observed during Feb-25 to Mar-15 in Hubei Province. Future forecast showed that the average number of SARS-CoV-2-infected cases might be decreased or stable in Hubei in the coming 20 days. CONCLUSION: The public must take precautionary measures in order to control and prevent disease spread and avoid extra travelling.
Authors: Ali M Zaki; Sander van Boheemen; Theo M Bestebroer; Albert D M E Osterhaus; Ron A M Fouchier Journal: N Engl J Med Date: 2012-10-17 Impact factor: 91.245
Authors: Michelle L Holshue; Chas DeBolt; Scott Lindquist; Kathy H Lofy; John Wiesman; Hollianne Bruce; Christopher Spitters; Keith Ericson; Sara Wilkerson; Ahmet Tural; George Diaz; Amanda Cohn; LeAnne Fox; Anita Patel; Susan I Gerber; Lindsay Kim; Suxiang Tong; Xiaoyan Lu; Steve Lindstrom; Mark A Pallansch; William C Weldon; Holly M Biggs; Timothy M Uyeki; Satish K Pillai Journal: N Engl J Med Date: 2020-01-31 Impact factor: 91.245