| Literature DB >> 32666682 |
Ziyu Li1, Xiaolong Wu1, Xiangyu Gao1, Fei Shan1, Xiangji Ying1, Yan Zhang1, Jiafu Ji1.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Recently, artificial neural network (ANN) methods have also been adopted to deal with the complex multidimensional nonlinear relationship between clinicopathologic variables and survival for patients with gastric cancer. Using a multinational cohort, this study aimed to develop and validate an ANN-based survival prediction model for patients with gastric cancer.Entities:
Keywords: artificial neural network; gastric cancer; prediction; survival
Mesh:
Year: 2020 PMID: 32666682 PMCID: PMC7476835 DOI: 10.1002/cam4.3245
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Cancer Med ISSN: 2045-7634 Impact factor: 4.452
Demographic and clinicopathologic variables
| Variable | SEER (n = 11 006) | CIAH (n = 3521) | PUCHI (n = 1432) |
| |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n | % | n | % | n | % | ||
| Mean age (y) | 66.9 ± 13.6 | 60.3 ± 11.2 | 61.7 ± 11.7 | <.001 | |||
| Sex | <.001 | ||||||
| Male | 6353 | 57.7 | 2371 | 67.3 | 997 | 69.6 | |
| Female | 4653 | 42.3 | 1150 | 32.7 | 435 | 30.4 | |
| Race | |||||||
| Non‐Latino White | 4188 | 38.1 | |||||
| Latino‐White | 2265 | 20.6 | |||||
| Black | 1700 | 15.4 | |||||
| Chinese | 591 | 5.4 | 1432 | 100 | |||
| Japanese | 472 | 4.3 | 3521 | 100 | |||
| Korean | 765 | 7 | |||||
| Others | 1025 | 9.3 | |||||
| Tumor location | <.001 | ||||||
| Upper | 1380 | 12.6 | 733 | 20.8 | 311 | 21.7 | |
| Middle | 1233 | 11.2 | 1710 | 48.6 | 294 | 20.5 | |
| Lower | 4397 | 40 | 979 | 27.8 | 761 | 53.1 | |
| Overlapping lesion | 859 | 7.8 | 99 | 2.8 | 66 | 4.6 | |
| Unknown | 3137 | 28.5 | |||||
| Tumor size (cm) | <.001 | ||||||
| <2.6 | 2692 | 24.5 | 1231 | 35 | 478 | 33.4 | |
| 2.6‐6.6 | 5126 | 46.6 | 1730 | 49.1 | 749 | 52.3 | |
| >6.6 | 2010 | 18.3 | 515 | 14.6 | 188 | 13.1 | |
| Diffuse | 219 | 2 | 45 | 1.3 | 17 | 1.2 | |
| Unknown | 959 | 8.7 | |||||
| Gastrectomy type | <.001 | ||||||
| Subtotal | 8530 | 77.5 | 2790 | 79.2 | 911 | 63.6 | |
| Total | 2476 | 22.5 | 731 | 20.8 | 521 | 36.4 | |
| Tumor extension | <.001 | ||||||
| Mucosa | 987 | 9 | 1281 | 36.4 | 197 | 13.8 | |
| Submucosa | 1688 | 15.3 | 954 | 27.1 | 158 | 11 | |
| Proper muscle | 1516 | 13.8 | 395 | 11.2 | 222 | 15.5 | |
| Subserosa | 3973 | 36.1 | 417 | 11.8 | 313 | 21.9 | |
| Serosa | 2329 | 21.2 | 433 | 12.3 | 503 | 35.1 | |
| Adjacent organ invasion | 513 | 4.7 | 41 | 1.2 | 39 | 2.7 | |
| No. of rLN | <.001 | ||||||
| 1‐15 | 6034 | 54.8 | 192 | 5.5 | 84 | 5.9 | |
| 16‐29 | 3575 | 32.5 | 946 | 26.9 | 639 | 44.6 | |
| >29 | 1397 | 12.7 | 2383 | 67.7 | 709 | 49.5 | |
| No. of mLN | <.001 | ||||||
| 0 | 4723 | 42.9 | 2499 | 71 | 604 | 42.2 | |
| 1‐2 | 1982 | 18 | 466 | 13.2 | 239 | 16.7 | |
| 3‐6 | 1940 | 17.6 | 346 | 9.8 | 218 | 15.2 | |
| 7‐15 | 1697 | 15.4 | 178 | 5.1 | 245 | 17.1 | |
| >15 | 664 | 6 | 32 | 0.9 | 126 | 8.8 | |
| MLR | <.001 | ||||||
| 0 | 4723 | 42.9 | 2499 | 71 | 604 | 42.2 | |
| <0.32 | 2842 | 25.8 | 979 | 27.8 | 583 | 40.7 | |
| 0.32‐0.64 | 1735 | 15.8 | 40 | 1.1 | 189 | 13.2 | |
| >0.64 | 1706 | 15.5 | 3 | 0.1 | 56 | 3.9 | |
| Differentiation | <.001 | ||||||
| Differentiated | 3474 | 31.6 | 1657 | 47.1 | 749 | 52.3 | |
| Undifferentiated | 7532 | 68.4 | 1864 | 52.9 | 683 | 47.7 | |
| Histology | <.001 | ||||||
| Adenocarcinoma | 8341 | 75.8 | 2502 | 71.1 | 1028 | 71.8 | |
| Mucinous Adenocarcinoma | 263 | 2.4 | 59 | 1.7 | 71 | 5 | |
| Signet‐ring cell carcinoma | 2402 | 21.8 | 960 | 27.3 | 333 | 23.3 | |
| Lauren type | <.001 | ||||||
| Intestinal | 2974 | 27 | 1716 | 48.7 | 323 | 22.6 | |
| Diffuse | 3231 | 29.4 | 960 | 27.3 | 367 | 25.6 | |
| Mixed | 742 | 51.8 | |||||
| Unspecified | 4801 | 43.6 | 845 | 24 | |||
| TNM 8th stage | <.001 | ||||||
| IA | 760 | 6.9 | 1862 | 52.9 | 263 | 18.4 | |
| IB | 432 | 3.9 | 391 | 11.1 | 143 | 10 | |
| IIA | 713 | 6.5 | 276 | 7.8 | 132 | 9.2 | |
| IIB | 597 | 5.4 | 244 | 6.9 | 191 | 13.3 | |
| IIIA | 825 | 7.5 | 348 | 9.9 | 251 | 17.5 | |
| IIIB | 953 | 8.7 | 173 | 4.9 | 239 | 16.7 | |
| IIIC | 692 | 6.3 | 35 | 1 | 129 | 9 | |
| Cannot be staged | 6034 | 54.8 | 192 | 5.5 | 84 | 5.9 | |
| Median follow‐up time (month) | 29 | 61 | 51 | ||||
Abbreviations: CIAH, Cancer Institute Ariake Hospital; mLN, metastatic lymph nodes; MLR, metastatic lymph nodes ratio; PUCHI, Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute; rLN, retrieved lymph nodes; SEER, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results.
FIGURE 1ANN model construction. A, Partial likelihood deviance for the LASSO coefficient profiles. The vertical dotted lines represent values according to the minimum (left line) and the 1‐SE (right line) criteria with fivefold cross‐validation. B, LASSO coefficient profiles of the nine selected clinicopathologic variables. The vertical dotted line is drawn corresponding to the optimal value. C, Independent standardized importance of selected variables in the trained ANN model. D, The framework of the ANN model including one input layer with nine nodes, one hidden layer with nine nodes, and one output layer with two nodes
FIGURE 2A‐C, Calibration of the ANN model in the SEER, CIAH, and PUCHI cohorts. The x‐axis and y‐axis represents the 5‐year survival probabilities predicted using the ANN model and the actual 5‐year survival rates, with 95% confidential interval, respectively. D‐F, Kaplan‐Meier survival curves of the ANN risk subgroups in the SEER, CIAH, and PUCHI cohorts
AUC of the ANN model and previous prediction models in the SEER cohort, the CIAH cohort, and the PUCHI cohort for 5‐y survival status
| Model | SEER cohort |
| CIAH cohort |
| PUCHI cohort |
| |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUC | 95% CI | AUC | 95% CI | AUC | 95% CI | ||||
| ANN model (ref) | 0.791 | 0.774‐0.807 | 0.866 | 0.836‐0.899 | 0.850 | 0.826‐0.874 | |||
| Western | |||||||||
| Kattan et al | 0.788 | 0.771‐0.805 | .512 | 0.828 | 0.796‐0.861 | .001 | 0.821 | 0.794‐0.847 | <.001 |
| Kim et al | 0.786 | 0.769‐0.803 | .335 | 0.837 | 0.805‐0.869 | .015 | 0.812 | 0.785‐0.838 | <.001 |
| Eastern | |||||||||
| Zheng et al | 0.775 | 0.757‐0.792 | <.001 | 0.853 | 0.824‐0.881 | .189 | 0.826 | 0.800‐0.852 | .002 |
| Han et al | 0.778 | 0.760‐0.795 | .001 | 0.847 | 0.818‐0.876 | .072 | 0.827 | 0.802‐0.853 | .002 |
| Song et al | 0.754 | 0.736‐0.772 | <.001 | 0.782 | 0.748‐0.816 | <.001 | 0.818 | 0.791‐0.845 | <.001 |
| Woo et al | 0.681 | 0.664‐0.698 | <.001 | 0.847 | 0.817‐0.876 | .084 | 0.805 | 0.779‐0.831 | <.001 |
| TNM 8th | 0.749 | 0.731‐0.768 | <.001 | 0.801 | 0.767‐0.835 | <.001 | 0.821 | 0.795‐0.847 | .001 |
Abbreviations: ANN, artificial neural work; AUC, area under curve; CI, confidence interval; CIAH, Cancer Institute Ariake Hospital; PUCHI, Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute; SEER, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results.
FIGURE 3Decision curve analysis (DCA) of the 5‐year overall survival. A, SEER cohort. B, CIAH cohort. C, PUCHI cohort. The y‐axis represents the net benefit