Agent-based modelling and parameter sensitivity analysis with a finite-element method for skin contraction.

In this paper, we extend the model of wound healing by Boon et al. (J Biomech 49(8):1388-1401, 2016). In addition to explaining the model explicitly regarding every component, namely cells, signalling molecules and tissue bundles, we categorized fibroblasts as regular fibroblasts and myofibroblasts. We do so since it is widely documented that myofibroblasts play a significant role during wound healing and skin contraction and that they are the main phenotype of cells that is responsible for the permanent deformations. Furthermore, we carried out some sensitivity tests of the model by modifying certain parameter values, and we observe that the model shows some consistency with several biological phenomena. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we found that there is a significant strong positive correlation between the final wound area and the minimal wound area. The high correlation between the wound area after 4 days and the final/minimal wound area makes it possible for physicians to predict the most probable time evolution of the wound of the patient. However, the collagen density ratio at the time when the wound area reaches its equilibrium and minimum, cannot indicate the degree of wound contractions, whereas at the 4th day post-wounding, when the collagen is accumulating from null, there is a strong negative correlation between the area and the collagen density ratio. Further, under the circumstances that we modelled, the probability that patients will end up with 5% contraction is about 0.627.