| Literature DB >> 32543092 |
Zhiying Gao1,2, Jing Ni1,3, Hui Ding1,3, Caiwang Yan1,3, Chuanli Ren4, Gang Li5, Feng Pan2, Guangfu Jin1,3.
Abstract
Most patients with gastric cancer (GC) are first diagnosed at stage III-IV and surgery resection remains the primary therapeutic modality for these patients. However, clinical staging used for prediction of those patients provides limited information. We collected clinicopathological data and disease-progression information from 508 patients with stage III-IV GC at three Chinese hospitals and 1298 patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Based on the stepwise multivariate regression model, we constructed a novel nomogram to predict overall survival (OS). The performance of discrimination for this model was measured using Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC), and was validated using calibration plots. Multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that tumor size, age at diagnosis, N stage, tumor grade, and distant metastases were outstanding independent prognostic factors of stage III-IV GC. We developed a nomogram based on these five prognostic predictors. In the training set, the C-index of the nomogram was 0.645 (95% CI: 0.611-0.679), which was higher than that of the American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM system alone (sixth TNM: 0.544; seventh TNM: 0.575; eighth TNM: 0.568). Similar results were observed in validation cohort. Moreover, calibration blots demonstrated good consistency between the actual and predicted OS probabilities. According to the nomogram, GC individuals could be classified into three groups (low-, middle-, and high-risk) (P < .001). Our nomogram complements the current staging system for prediction of individual prognosis with stage III-IV GC, and may be helpful for making individualized treatment decisions.Entities:
Keywords: SEER database; nomogram; prognosis; stomach neoplasm
Mesh:
Year: 2020 PMID: 32543092 PMCID: PMC7402842 DOI: 10.1002/cam4.3215
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Cancer Med ISSN: 2045-7634 Impact factor: 4.452
FIGURE 1Selection process of subjects for the Cox regression model and construction of nomogram
Baseline characteristics of study patients
| Characteristics | Training cohort | Validation cohort | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patients | Deaths | MST (months) | Patients | Deaths | MST (months) | |
| N = 508 (%) | N = 295 (%) | N = 1298 (%) | N = 1017 (%) | |||
| Age (year) | ||||||
| <63 | 232 (45.67) | 116 (39.32) | 58.6 | 542 (41.76) | 375 (36.87) | 28.0 |
| ≥63 | 276 (54.33) | 179 (60.68) | 37.5 | 756 (58.24) | 642 (63.13) | 18.0 |
| Gender | ||||||
| Male | 385 (75.79) | 228 (77.29) | 42.1 | 831 (64.02) | 642 (63.13) | 22.0 |
| Female | 123 (24.21) | 67 (22.71) | 54.3 | 467 (35.98) | 375 (36.87) | 20.0 |
| Location | ||||||
| Upper third (C) | 257 (50.59) | 150 (50.85) | 45.3 | 326 (25.12) | 230 (22.62) | 25.0 |
| Middle third (M) | 152 (29.92) | 81 (27.46) | 58.6 | 452 (34.82) | 356 (35.00) | 20.0 |
| Lower third (A) | 94 (18.50) | 60 (20.34) | 34.0 | 520 (40.06) | 431 (42.38) | 20.0 |
| Missing | 5 (0.98) | 4 (1.36) | – | – | – | – |
| Tumor size (cm) | ||||||
| <5 | 178 (35.04) | 94 (31.86) | 65.5 | 396 (30.51) | 307 (30.19) | 23.0 |
| 5‐7 | 261 (51.38) | 148 (50.17) | 39.6 | 551 (42.45) | 424 (41.69) | 21.0 |
| >7 | 69 (13.58) | 53 (17.97) | 19.8 | 351 (27.04) | 286 (28.12) | 19.0 |
| Tumor grade | ||||||
| G1/G2 | 298 (58.66) | 167 (56.61) | 49.5 | 376 (28.97) | 278 (27.34) | 25.0 |
| G3 | 210 (41.34) | 128 (43.39) | 42.1 | 922 (71.03) | 739 (72.66) | 20.0 |
| T stage | ||||||
| T1 | – | – | – | 7 (0.54) | 6 (0.59) | 10.0 |
| T2 | – | – | – | 49 (3.78) | 33 (3.24) | 27.0 |
| T3 | – | – | – | 571 (43.99) | 439 (43.17) | 23.0 |
| T4a | 359 (70.67) | 210 (71.19) | 42.1 | 509 (39.21) | 407 (40.02) | 20.0 |
| T4b | 149 (29.33) | 85 (28.81) | 45.6 | 162 (12.48) | 132 (12.98) | 18.0 |
| Lymph node metastasis (LNM) | ||||||
| N0 | – | – | – | 31 (2.39) | 18 (1.77) | 31.0 |
| N1 | 137 (26.97) | 67 (22.71) | 74.6 | 114 (8.78) | 71 (6.98) | 44.0 |
| N2 | 172 (33.86) | 100 (33.90) | 40.8 | 341 (26.27) | 232 (22.81) | 31.0 |
| N3a | 161 (31.69) | 96 (32.54) | 44.4 | 518 (39.91) | 424 (41.69) | 18.0 |
| N3b | 38 (7.48) | 32 (10.85) | 14.1 | 294 (22.65) | 272 (26.75) | 16.0 |
| Distant metastasis | ||||||
| M0 | 481 (94.69) | 271 (91.86) | 46.3 | 1078 (83.05) | 814 (80.04) | 23.0 |
| M1 | 27 (5.31) | 24 (8.14) | 20.8 | 220 (16.95) | 203 (19.96) | 15.0 |
| Adjuvant treatment* | ||||||
| None | 195 (38.39) | 115 (38.98) | 42.9 | – | – | – |
| Chemo | 239 (47.05) | 130 (44.07) | 47.5 | – | – | – |
| Chemo + Radio | 72 (14.17) | 48 (16.27) | 41.9 | – | – | – |
| Missing | 2 (0.39) | 2 (0.68) | – | |||
| Staging system | ||||||
| Sixth | ||||||
| II | – | – | – | 196 (15.10) | 125 (12.29) | 36.0 |
| IIIa | 204 (40.16) | 110 (37.29) | 54.3 | 435 (33.51) | 310 (30.48) | 26.0 |
| IIIb | 112 (22.05) | 64 (21.69) | 41.3 | 160 (12.33) | 130 (12.78) | 19.0 |
| IV | 192 (37.80) | 121 (41.02) | 37.0 | 507 (39.06) | 452 (44.44) | 17.0 |
| Seventh | ||||||
| IIIa | 89 (17.52) | 44 (14.92) | 81.6 | 307 (23.65) | 189 (18.58) | 41.0 |
| IIIb | 158 (31.10) | 85 (28.81) | 45.3 | 436 (33.59) | 335 (32.94) | 22.0 |
| IIIc | 234 (46.06) | 142 (48.14) | 39.6 | 335 (25.81) | 290 (28.52) | 17.0 |
| IV | 27 (5.31) | 24 (8.14) | 20.8 | 220 (16.95) | 203 (19.96) | 15.0 |
| Eighth | ||||||
| IIIa | 204 (40.16) | 110 (37.29) | 54.3 | 413 (31.82) | 261 (25.66) | 38.0 |
| IIIb | 205 (40.35) | 110 (37.29) | 48.7 | 417 (32.13) | 325 (31.96) | 21.0 |
| IIIc | 72 (14.17) | 51 (17.29) | 34.0 | 248 (19.11) | 228 (22.42) | 17.0 |
| IV | 27 (5.31) | 24 (8.14) | 20.8 | 220 (16.95) | 203 (19.96) | 15.0 |
| Race | ||||||
| African | – | – | – | 219 (16.87) | 175 (17.21) | 22.0 |
| Asian | 508 (100.00) | 295 (100.00) | 44.4 | 309 (23.81) | 239 (23.50) | 21.0 |
| Caucasian | – | – | – | 769 (59.24) | 603 (59.29) | 21.0 |
| Missing | – | – | – | 1 (0.08) | 0 | – |
Chemo, chemotherapy; Radio, radiation therapy, MST, median survival time.
Univariate and multivariate analysis of the training cohort
| Characteristics | Univariate analysis | Multivariate analysis | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR (95% CI) |
| HR (95% CI) |
| |
| Age (year) | ||||
| <63 | 1.00 | – | 1.00 | – |
| ≥63 | 1.43 (1.13‐1.81) | 0.003 | 1.52 (1.19‐1.93) | <0.001 |
| Gender | ||||
| Male | 1.00 | – | – | – |
| Female | 0.90 (0.69‐1.19) | 0.46 | – | – |
| Location | ||||
| Upper third (C) | 1.00 | – | – | – |
| Middle third (M) | 0.92 (0.70‐1.21) | 0.55 | – | – |
| Lower third (A) | 1.13 (0.84‐1.53) | 0.41 | – | – |
| Missing | – | – | – | – |
| Tumor size (cm) | ||||
| <5 | 1.00 | – | 1.00 | – |
| 5‐7 | 1.48 (1.14‐1.92) | 0.003 | 1.35 (1.03‐1.75) | 0.03 |
| >7 | 2.41 (1.72‐3.38) | <0.001 | 2.09 (1.48‐2.94) | <0.001 |
| Tumor grade | ||||
| G1/G2 | 1.00 | – | 1.00 | – |
| G3 | 1.35 (1.07‐1.70) | 0.01 | 1.25 (0.99‐1.59) | 0.06 |
| T stage | ||||
| T4a | 1.00 | – | – | – |
| T4b | 0.94 (0.73‐1.22) | 0.66 | – | – |
| Lymph node metastasis (LNM) | ||||
| N0 | ||||
| N1 | 1.00 | – | 1.00 | – |
| N2 | 1.43 (1.05‐1.95) | 0.02 | 1.37 (1.00‐1.87) | 0.05 |
| N3a | 1.54 (1.13‐2.11) | 0.01 | 1.46 (1.06‐2.02) | 0.02 |
| N3b | 3.74 (2.45‐5.73) | <0.001 | 3.43 (2.22‐5.29) | <0.001 |
| Distant metastasis | ||||
| M0 | 1.00 | – | 1.00 | – |
| M1 | 2.04 (1.35‐3.11) | <0.001 | 1.69 (1.10‐2.59) | 0.02 |
| Adjuvant treatment* | ||||
| None | 1.00 | – | – | – |
| Chemo | 0.89 (0.69‐1.14) | 0.36 | – | – |
| Chemo + Radio | 1.11 (0.79‐1.55) | 0.56 | – | – |
Chemo, chemotherapy; Radio, radiation therapy; HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval.
FIGURE 2A, Nomogram conveys the results of prognostic models using clinicopathologic variables to predict 1‐, 3‐, and 5‐year overall survival rate of patients with stage III‐IV gastric cancer after racial resection. B, The calibration plot for nomogram in the internal validation. C, The calibration plot for nomogram in external set
Predictive validation for nomogram and AJCC staging systems
| System | C‐index | 95% CI | Z‐score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Training cohort | |||
| AJCC sixth TNM | 0.544 | 0.512‐0.576 | 2.64 |
| AJCC seventh TNM | 0.575 | 0.543‐0.607 | 4.50 |
| AJCC eighth TNM | 0.568 | 0.535‐0.601 | 4.01 |
| Nomogram | 0.645 | 0.611‐0.679 | 8.32 |
| Validation cohort | |||
| AJCC sixth TNM | 0.592 | 0.574‐0.610 | 10.52 |
| AJCC seventh TNM | 0.609 | 0.591‐0.627 | 12.01 |
| AJCC eighth TNM | 0.611 | 0.593‐0.629 | 12.40 |
| Nomogram | 0.626 | 0.612‐0.640 | 13.90 |
| Race | |||
| Asian | 0.644 | 0.609‐0.679 | 8.01 |
| African | 0.604 | 0.561‐0.647 | 4.69 |
| Caucasian | 0.628 | 0.604‐0.652 | 10.67 |
AJCC, American Joint Committee on Cancer; C‐index, Harrell's concordance‐index; CI, confidence interval.
FIGURE 3Survival curves stratified by the risk score calculated by the total points of the nomogram (low‐risk, <16.07; middle‐risk, 16.07‐19.40). A, Survival curves for different risk groups in the internal validation cohort. B, Survival curves for different risk groups in the external validation cohort