| Literature DB >> 32535486 |
Zhuoxin Sun1, Samuel M Niman2, Olivia Pagani3, Ann H Partridge4, Hatem A Azim5, Fedro A Peccatori6, Monica Ruggeri7, Angelo Di Leo8, Marco Colleoni9, Richard D Gelber10, Meredith M Regan11.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Although randomized controlled clinical trials are optimal to evaluate the effect of an experimental therapy, single-arm trials are required whenever randomization is unethical or not feasible, such as de-escalation studies. We propose using prospectively identified historical controls to place results of single-arm, de-escalation trials into context.Entities:
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Year: 2020 PMID: 32535486 PMCID: PMC7375555 DOI: 10.1016/j.breast.2020.05.012
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Breast ISSN: 0960-9776 Impact factor: 4.380
The distribution of patient, treatment and disease characteristics for the POSITIVE participants (N = 272), the eligible SOFT/TEXT cohort (N = 1499), and the means of the 5000 random sample sets drawn from the eligible SOFT/TEXT cohort using Method II.
| POSITIVE enrolled (N = 272) | SOFT/TEXT eligible (N = 1499) | SOFT/TEXT group matched random samples | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N | % | N | % | % | |
| Age (years) | |||||
| <35 | 92 | 33.8 | 286 | 19.1 | 33.9 |
| 35-39 | 110 | 40.4 | 573 | 38.2 | 40.3 |
| 40-42 | 70 | 25.7 | 640 | 42.7 | 25.8 |
| Body mass index (BMI; kg/m2) | |||||
| Normal (<25) | 199 | 73.2 | 871 | 58.1 | 72.9 |
| Overweight (25-<30) | 43 | 15.8 | 337 | 22.5 | 13.2 |
| Obese (≥30) | 21 | 7.7 | 257 | 17.1 | 10.5 |
| Unknown | 9 | 3.3 | 34 | 2.3 | 3.4 |
| Previous pregnancy | |||||
| No | 160 | 58.8 | 387 | 25.8 | 33.0 |
| Yes | 112 | 41.2 | 1112 | 74.2 | 67.0 |
| Previous delivery of a baby | |||||
| No | 200 | 73.5 | 431 | 28.8 | 35.7 |
| Yes | 72 | 26.5 | 1068 | 71.2 | 64.3 |
| No. nodes positive | |||||
| pN0 | 182 | 66.9 | 794 | 53.0 | 66.6 |
| pN+ 1–3 | 75 | 27.6 | 523 | 34.9 | 28.1 |
| pN+ 4–9 | 14 | 5.1 | 175 | 11.7 | 5.3 |
| Unknown | 1 | 0.4 | 7 | 0.5 | |
| Tumor size (path.; cm) | |||||
| ≤2 cm | 169 | 62.1 | 847 | 56.5 | 63.5 |
| >2 cm | 97 | 35.7 | 605 | 40.4 | 33.6 |
| Unknown | 6 | 2.2 | 47 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| Tumor grade | |||||
| 1 | 47 | 17.3 | 223 | 14.9 | 17.3 |
| 2 | 127 | 46.7 | 770 | 51.4 | 52.5 |
| 3 | 91 | 33.5 | 478 | 31.9 | 28.9 |
| Unknown | 7 | 2.6 | 28 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| HER2 status | |||||
| Negative | 208 | 76.5 | 1191 | 79.5 | 77.7 |
| Positive | 61 | 22.4 | 256 | 17.1 | 17.6 |
| Unknown | 3 | 1.1 | 52 | 3.5 | 4.7 |
| Estrogen receptor (ER ≥ 10%) | |||||
| Negative | 3 | 1.1 | 42 | 2.8 | 2.1 |
| Positive | 269 | 98.9 | 1457 | 97.2 | 97.9 |
| Progesterone receptor (PgR≥10%) | |||||
| Negative | 30 | 11.0 | 181 | 12.1 | 11.1 |
| Positive | 239 | 87.9 | 1300 | 86.7 | 87.8 |
| Missing | 3 | 1.1 | 18 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Prior chemotherapy | |||||
| No | 105 | 38.6 | 359 | 23.9 | 37.5 |
| Yes | 167 | 61.4 | 1140 | 76.1 | 62.5 |
| Prior AI received | |||||
| No | 214 | 78.7 | 893 | 59.6 | 78.5 |
| Yes | 58 | 21.3 | 606 | 40.4 | 21.5 |
| Prior OFS received | |||||
| No | 121 | 44.5 | 315 | 21.0 | 23.4 |
| Yes | 151 | 55.5 | 1184 | 79.0 | 76.6 |
In Method II, 5000 random sample sets of eligible SOFT/TEXT patients were drawn with replacement matching characteristics of the POSITIVE participants. The matched characteristics used are age (<35, 35–39, 40–42), BMI (unknown/normal, overweight/obese), nodal status (pN0, pN+1–3, pN+4–9), prior AI received (yes, no), and prior chemotherapy received (yes, no).
The estimates of 3-year BCFI rates in the eligible SOFT/TEXT cohort (N = 1499) according to unbalanced characteristics (p-values from univariate Cox modelsa).
| 3-year BCFI | P-value | |
|---|---|---|
| % | ||
| Age (years) | ||
| <35 | 87.7 | 0.12 |
| 35-39 | 90.6 | |
| 40-42 | 91.8 | |
| Body mass index (BMI; kg/m2) | ||
| Normal (<25) | 91.2 | 0.17 |
| Overweight (25-<30) | 87.6 | |
| Obese (≥30) | 91.8 | |
| Previous delivery of a baby | ||
| No | 90.3 | 0.81 |
| Yes | 90.6 | |
| No. nodes positive | ||
| pN0 | 93.4 | <.0001 |
| pN+ 1–3 | 89.1 | |
| pN+ 4–9 | 82.1 | |
| Prior chemotherapy | ||
| No | 95.0 | 0.003 |
| Yes | 89.2 | |
| Prior AI received | ||
| No | 88.4 | 0.002 |
| Yes | 93.7 | |
| Prior OFS received | ||
| No | 89.4 | 0.40 |
| Yes | 90.9 | |
In the Cox models, BCFI was censored at 3 years; the p-values reported are from the univariate Cox model with only the characteristic of interest included.
BCFI estimates∗ from Methods I and II.
| Annualized hazard rate over the first 3 years | 95% CI | 3-year BCFI event rate | 95% CI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate assumed in the original POSITIVE design | 2% | 5.8% | ||
| Method I | 3.4% | (2.8%, 4.0%) | 9.5% | (7.9%, 11.1%) |
| Method II | 3.4% | (2.8%, 4.0%) | 9.4% | (7.8%, 10.9%) |
∗There were 168 BCFI events in SOFT/TEXT eligible cohort; among them, 126 occurred within 3 years after time 0.
In Method II, 5000 random sample sets of SOFT/TEXT patients were drawn with replacement matching the characteristics of the POSITIVE participants. The matched characteristics used are age (<35, 35–39, 40–42), BMI (unknown/normal, overweight/obese), nodal status (pN0, pN+1–3, pN+4–9), prior AI received (yes, no), and prior chemotherapy received (yes, no).
Fig. 1Kaplan-Meier curves of BCFI for the identified SOFT/TEXT cohort (N = 1499; Method I; 3-year event rate: 9.5%) and the average of 5000 random samples (Method II; 3-year event rate: 9.4%).
BCFI estimates from Method II eliminating one factor at a time from the Final Modela.
| Annualized hazard rate over the first 3 years | 95% CI | 3-year BCFI event rate | 95% CI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate assumed in the original POSITIVE design | 2.0% | 5.8% | ||
| Method I | 3.4% | (2.8%, 4.0%) | 9.5% | (7.9%, 11.1%) |
| Method II: Final Model | 3.4% | (2.8%, 4.0%) | 9.4% | (7.8%, 10.9%) |
| Method II: eliminating age | 3.2% | (2.6%, 3.8%) | 8.9% | (7.4%, 10.5%) |
| Method II: eliminating BMI | 3.4% | (2.9%, 4.0%) | 9.5% | (8.0%, 11.1%) |
| Method II: eliminating nodal status | 3.6% | (3.0%, 4.2%) | 10.0% | (8.4%, 11.6%) |
| Method II: eliminating prior AI | 3.0% | (2.4%, 3.6%) | 8.4% | (6.9%, 9.9%) |
| Method II: eliminating prior chemotherapy | 3.5% | (2.9%, 4.1%) | 9.7% | (8.2%, 11.3%) |
In the final model, the matched characteristics used are age (<35, 35–39, 40–42), BMI (unknown/normal, overweight/obese), nodal status (pN0, pN+1–3, pN+4–9), prior AI received (yes, no), and prior chemotherapy received (yes, no).