| Literature DB >> 32523702 |
Trevor W Lambert1, Atena Barat1, Michael J Goldacre1.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Using data from 40 years of national surveys of UK medical graduates, we report on ophthalmology as a career choice. DESIGN SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Self-administered questionnaire surveys of all graduates from all UK medical schools in selected years of qualification between 1974 and 2015. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Career specialty preferences of doctors one, three, and five years after graduation; career specialty destinations 10 years after graduation.Entities:
Keywords: Ophthalmology career; UK workforce; medical education; specialty choice
Year: 2020 PMID: 32523702 PMCID: PMC7236578 DOI: 10.1177/2054270419892155
Source DB: PubMed Journal: JRSM Open ISSN: 2054-2704
Trends in early preferences for eventual career in ophthalmology: percentages of doctors who specified ophthalmology as their first preference of career at years 1, 3, and 5 after graduation.
| Year after graduation | Cohorts (years of graduation) | Statistical test | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1974–83 N (%) | 1993–2002 N (%) | 2005–15 N (%) | All cohorts N (%) | of heterogeneity ( | |
| Men and women | |||||
| Year 1 | 165 (1.6) | 308 (2.2) | 279 (1.8) | 752 (1.9) | 14.7, 0.001 |
| Year 3 | 150 (1.5) | 253 (1.8) | 98 (1.2) | 501 (1.6) | 12.3, 0.002 |
| Year 5 | 93 (1.3) | 213 (1.6) | 50 (1.1) | 356 (1.4) | 8.6, 0.013 |
| Men | |||||
| Year 1 | 116 (1.7) | 182 (2.9) | 136 (2.4) | 434 (2.3) | 22.5, <0.001 |
| Year 3 | 109 (1.7) | 144 (2.3) | 53 (1.8) | 306 (2.0) | 6.7, 0.03 |
| Year 5 | 66 (1.4) | 129 (2.2) | 30 (1.7) | 225 (1.8) | 9.6, 0.008 |
| Women | |||||
| Year 1 | 49 (1.3) | 126 (1.6) | 143 (1.4) | 318 (1.5) | 1.8, 0.41 |
| Year 3 | 41 (1.2) | 109 (1.4) | 45 (0.9) | 195 (1.2) | 7.1, 0.02 |
| Year 5 | 27 (1.1) | 84 (1.1) | 20 (0.7) | 131 (1.0) | 5.1, 0.07 |
Figure 1.Ophthalmology as any choice (blue – men, red – women).
Comparison of the certainty of choice between doctors who expressed a first preference for each specialty group at years 1, 3, and 5 year after graduation.
| Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gender | Level of certainty of career choice | Ophthalmology N (%) | Other surgical specialties N (%) | Ophthalmology N (%) | Other surgical specialties N (%) | Ophthalmology N (%) | Other surgical specialties N (%) |
| Male | Definite | 175 (40.8) | 1706 (38.4) | 211 (69.9) | 1441 (49.7) | 189 (84.4) | 1565 (75.8) |
| Probable | 192 (44.8) | 2042 (45.9) | 67 (22.2) | 1234 (42.6) | 30 (13.4) | 441 (21.4) | |
| Uncertain | 62 (14.5) | 700 (15.7) | 24 (7.9) | 225 (7.8) | 5 (2.2) | 59 (2.9) | |
| Total | 429 (100.0) | 4448 (100.0) | 302 (100.0)** | 2900 (100.0) | 224 (100.0) | 2065 (100.0) | |
| Female | Definite | 124 (39.1) | 690 (35.3) | 134 (69.1) | 489 (49.7) | 95 (72.5) | 442 (70.8) |
| Probable | 132 (41.6) | 880 (45.0) | 44 (22.7) | 393 (40.0) | 32 (24.4) | 147 (23.6) | |
| Uncertain | 61 (19.2) | 384 (19.7) | 16 (8.2) | 101 (10.3) | 4 (3.1) | 35 (5.6) | |
| Total | 317 (100.0) | 1954 (100.0) | 194 (100.0)** | 983 (100.0) | 131 (100.0) | 624 (100.0) | |
| All (men and women) | Definite | 299 (40.1) | 2396 (37.4) | 345 (69.6) | 1930 (49.7) | 284 (80.0) | 2007 (74.6) |
| Probable | 324 (43.4) | 2922 (45.6) | 111 (22.4) | 1627 (41.9) | 62 (17.5) | 588 (21.9) | |
| Uncertain | 123 (16.5) | 1084 (16.9) | 40 (8.1) | 326 (8.4) | 9 (2.5) | 94 (3.5) | |
| Total | 746 (100.0) | 6402 (100.0) | 496 (100.0)** | 3883 (100.0) | 355 (100.0) | 2689 (100.0) | |
indicates p < .05; ** indicates p < .001, comparing ophthalmology with other surgical specialties, within each year, for level of certainty.
Preferences for Ophthalmology in individual cohorts: percentages and numbers of respondents.
| Ophthalmology as first choice | Ophthalmology as any choice | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graduation year | Year 1 % (N) | Year 3 % (N) | Year 5 % (N) | Year 1 % (N) | Year 3 % (N) | Year 5 % (N) |
| 1974 | 0.9 (17/1940) | 1.3 (20/1486) | 1.2 (21/1755) | 1.5 (29/1940) | 1.9 (28/1486) | 1.6 (28/1755) |
| 1977 | 1.3 (33/2637) | 1.5 (35/2336) | 1.4 (37/2602) | 2.6 (68/2637) | 1.7 (40/2336) | 1.7 (43/2602) |
| 1980 | 2.1 (61/2853) | 1.6 (45/2843) | 1.3 (35/2716) | 3.1 (89/2853) | 2.1 (59/2843) | 1.5 (42/2716) |
| 1983 | 1.7 (54/3166) | 1.6 (50/3037) | 0.0 | 2.7 (85/3166) | 1.9 (58/3037) | 0.0 |
| 1993 | 2.8 (74/2621) | 1.8 (51/2777) | 1.8 (49/2729) | 3.5 (92/621) | 2.0 (56/2777) | 1.9 (51/2729) |
| 1996 | 1.6 (47/2926) | 1.6 (43/2721) | 1.5 (39/2521) | 2.7 (79/2926) | 1.8 (48/2721) | 1.6 (40/2521) |
| 1999 | 2.1 (58/2727) | 1.8 (46/2549) | 1.7 (46/2661) | 2.9 (79/2727) | 2.2 (56/2549) | 1.8 (47/2661) |
| 2000 | 2.1 (63/2978) | 2.3 (68/2968) | 1.7 (47/2703) | 3.0 (88/2978) | 2.6 (76/2968) | 1.8 (50/2703) |
| 2002 | 2.4 (66/2778) | 1.6 (45/2748) | 1.3 (32/2552) | 3.4 (94/2778) | 1.9 (52/2748) | 1.3 (33/2552) |
| 2005 | 1.8 (56/3128) | 1.4 (38/2710) | 1.2 (28/2362) | 2.6 (82/3128) | 1.5 (41/2710) | 1.6 (37/2362) |
| 2008 | 1.4 (46/3302) | 0.8 (27/3228) | 0.9 (22/2369) | 2.0 (67/3302) | 0.9 (29/3228) | 1.1 (27/2369) |
| 2009 | 1.7 (51/2917) | – | – | 2.3 (68/2917) | – | – |
| 2011 | 1.6 (16/1001) | – | – | 2.3 (23/1001) | – | – |
| 2012 | 1.6 (39/2398) | 1.6 (33/2063) | – | 2.0 (49/2398) | 1.7 (36/2063) | – |
| 2015 | 2.3 (71/3040) | – | – | 2.6 (78/3040) | – | – |
Career destinations at 10 years of medical graduates who expressed career preferences for ophthalmology in years 1, 3, and 5 (looking forwards).
| Destinations after 10 years | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ophthalmology % (N) | Other surgical specialties % (N) | Other destinations % (N) | Total % (N) | |
| Year 1 first choice | ||||
| Male choosing ophthalmology | 51% (77) | 3% (5) | 45% (68) | 100% (150) |
| Female choosing ophthalmology | 47% (46) | 2% (2) | 51% (49) | 100% (97) |
| Total choosing ophthalmology | 50% (123) | 3% (7) | 47% (117) | 100% (247) |
| Year 3 first choice | ||||
| Male choosing ophthalmology | 77% (88) | 2% (2) | 22% (25) | 100% (115) |
| Female choosing ophthalmology | 66% (58) | 1% (1) | 33% (29) | 100% (88) |
| Total choosing ophthalmology | 72% (146) | 1% (3) | 27% (54) | 100% (203) |
| Year 5 first choice | ||||
| Male choosing ophthalmology | 89% (90) | 1% (1) | 10% (10) | 100% (101) |
| Female choosing ophthalmology | 83% (54) | 0% (0) | 17% (11) | 100% (65) |
| Total choosing ophthalmology | 87% (144) | 1% (1) | 13% (21) | 100% (166) |
The table is based on destinations at 10 years for the graduates of 1993, 1996, 1999, 2000, and 2002.
Original specialty preferences in years 1, 3, and 5 of doctors practising as ophthalmologists in year 10 (looking backwards).
| Career choices | Male % (N) | Female % (N) | Total % (N) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | |||
| Ophthalmology as untied first choice | 70% (74) | 70% (42) | 70% (116) |
| Ophthalmology as tied first choice | 3% (3) | 7% (4) | 4% (7) |
| Ophthalmology as second or third choice | 5% (5) | 0% (0) | 3% (5) |
| Other surgical specialties | 10% (11) | 3% (2) | 8% (13) |
| Others | 12% (13) | 20% (12) | 15% (25) |
| Total | 100% (106) | 100% (60) | 100% (166) |
| Year 3 | |||
| Ophthalmology as untied first choice | 91% (87) | 90% (57) | 91% (144) |
| Ophthalmology as tied first choice | 1% (1) | 2% (1) | 1% (2) |
| Ophthalmology as second or third choice | 3% (3) | 0% (0) | 2% (3) |
| Other surgical specialties | 4% (4) | 2% (1) | 3% (5) |
| Others | 1% (1) | 6% (4) | 3% (5) |
| Total | 100% (96) | 100% (63) | 100% (159) |
| Year 5 | |||
| Ophthalmology as untied first choice | 95% (89) | 91% (53) | 93% (142) |
| Ophthalmology as tied first choice | 1% (1) | 2% (1) | 1% (2) |
| Ophthalmology as second or third choice | 0% (0) | 2% (1) | 1% (1) |
| Other surgical specialties | 1% (1) | 2% (1) | 1% (2) |
| Others | 3% (3) | 3% (2) | 4% (5) |
| Total | 100% (94) | 100% (58) | 100% (152) |