| Literature DB >> 32489602 |
Yinbo Zhang1,2, Qingxin Meng2, Yuzhuo Wang3, Xiaolong Zhang1, Wei Wang4.
Abstract
Theaceae, an economically important angiosperm family, is widely distributed in tropical and subtropical forests in Asia. In China, Theaceae has particularly high abundances and endemism, comprising ~75% of the total genera and ~46% of the total species worldwide. Therefore, predicting the response of Theaceae species to climate change is vital. In this study, we collected distribution data for 200 wild Theaceae species in China, and predicted their distribution patterns under current and future climactic conditions by species distribution modeling (SDM). We revealed that Theaceae species richness is highest in southeastern China and on Hainan Island, reaching its highest value (137 species) in Fujian Province. According to the IUCN Red List criteria for assessing species threat levels under two dispersal assumptions (no dispersal and full dispersal), we evaluated the conservation status of all Theaceae species by calculating loss of suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We predicted that nine additional species will become threatened due to climate change in the future; one species will be classified as critically endangered (CR), two as endangered (EN), and six as vulnerable (VU). Given their extinction risks associated with climate change, we recommended that these species be added to the Red List. Our investigation of migration patterns revealed regional differences in the number of emigrant, immigrant, and persistent species, indicating the need for targeted conservation strategies. Regions containing numerous emigrants are concentrated in Northern Taiwan and coastal regions of Zhejiang and Fujian provinces, while regions containing numerous immigrants include central Sichuan Province, the southeastern Tibet Autonomous Region, southwest Yunnan Province, northwest Sichuan Province, and the junction of Guangxi and Hunan provinces. Lastly, regions containing persistent species are widely distributed in southern China. Importantly, regions with high species turnover are located on the northern border of the entire Theaceae species distribution ranges owing to upwards migration; these regions are considered most sensitive to climate change and conservation planning should therefore be prioritized here. This study will contribute valuable information for reducing the negative impacts of climate change on Theaceae species, which will ultimately improve biodiversity conservation efficiency.Entities:
Keywords: Red List; Theaceae species; biodiversity conservation; climate change; species distribution modeling
Year: 2020 PMID: 32489602 PMCID: PMC7246209 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.6202
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Ecol Evol ISSN: 2045-7758 Impact factor: 2.912
Figure 1Theaceae species richness patterns in China under current climactic conditions. (a) Species richness; (b) Weighted endemism. Black numbers indicate administrative provinces: 1–Hainan, 2–Taiwan, 3–Guangxi, 4–Guangdong, 5–Fujian, 6–Yunnan, 7–Guizhou, 8–Hunan, 9–Jiangxi, 10–Zhejiang, 11–Sichuan, 12–Hubei, 13–Tibet, 14–Xinjiang, 15–Hebei
Figure 2Theaceae species richness patterns in China under different climate change scenarios in the 2070s. (a) Species richness; (b) Weighted endemism
Predicted extinction risks in the 2070s for Theaceae species in China
| No dispersal assumption | Full dispersal assumption | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | VU | EN | CR | LR | VU | EN | CR | ||
| RCP2.6 | 194 | 5 | 1 | 0 | RCP2.6 | 196 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| RCP4.5 | 195 | 4 | 1 | 0 | RCP4.5 | 197 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| RCP6.0 | 191 | 6 | 2 | 1 | RCP6.0 | 194 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| RCP8.5 | 185 | 13 | 2 | 0 | RCP8.5 | 194 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Predictions are based on four emissions scenarios and two dispersal assumptions. LR (Low Risk), <30% habitat loss; VU (Vulnerable), >30% habitat loss; EN (Endangered), >50% habitat loss; CR (Critically Endangered), >80% habitat loss.
Red List of Theaceae species under current conditions and suggested species to be added in the future
| Red list under current condition | CR |
|
| EN |
| |
| VU |
| |
| Added Threatened species in the future | CR |
|
| EN |
| |
| VU |
|
The species are endemic to China.
Figure 3Migration patterns of Theaceae species in the 2070s under the most severe climate change scenario (RCP6.0). (a) Number of emigrants per grid cell; (b) Number of immigrants per grid cell; (c) Number of persistent species per grid cell; (d) Species turnover per grid cell