| Literature DB >> 32477188 |
Moritz Philipp Günther1, Johannes Kirchebner2, Steffen Lau2.
Abstract
PURPOSE: This study aims to explore risk factors for direct coercive measures (seclusion, restraint, involuntary medication) in a high risk subpopulation of offender patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders.Entities:
Keywords: coercion; forensic psychiatry; involuntary medication; machine learning; offenders with schizophrenia spectrum disorder; restraint; seclusion; severe mental illness
Year: 2020 PMID: 32477188 PMCID: PMC7237713 DOI: 10.3389/fpsyt.2020.00415
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Front Psychiatry ISSN: 1664-0640 Impact factor: 4.157
Figure 1Data processing and statistical analysis.
Sociodemographic characteristics of the studied sample and legal justifications for use of direct coercion.
| Characteristics | Total | No coercion | Coercion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Male sex | 333/358 (93) | 208/227 (91.6) | 125/131 (95.4) |
| Age at admission (mean, SD) | 33.99 (10.191) | 34.40 (10.128) | 33.27 (10.298) |
| Native country Switzerland | 160/358 (44.7) | 105/227 (46.3) | 55/131 (42) |
| Single (at offense) | 288/352 (80.4) | 181/222 (81.5) | 107/130 (82.3) |
| Legal justification for use of direct coercion | |||
| Endangerment of self | 19/131 (14.5) | ||
| Threat of violence | 74/131 (56.5) | ||
| Violence against others (physical) | 52/131 (39.7) |
SD, standard deviation; N, total study population; n, subgroup with characteristic.
Machine learning models and performance during nested resampling.
| Statistical procedure | Balanced accuracy (%) | AUC | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logistic regression | 75.13 | 0.85 | 71 | 80 | 85 | 62 |
| Tree | 71.55 | 0.79 | 76 | 67 | 79 | 63 |
| Random forest | 74.12 | 0.86 | 78 | 70 | 81 | 66 |
| Gradient boosting | 72.63 | 0.84 | 76 | 69 | 80 | 63 |
| KNN | 69.56 | 0.80 | 68 | 71 | 80 | 57 |
| SVM | 76.85 | 0.84 | 81 | 73 | 83 | 69 |
| Naive Bayes | 77.01 | 0.84 | 85 | 73 | 84 | 69 |
AUC, area under the curve (level of discrimination); PPV, positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value; KNN, k-nearest neighbors; SVM, support vector machines.
Absolute and relative distribution of relevant predictor variables.
| Variable code | Variable description | Coercion experienced | No coercion experienced |
|---|---|---|---|
| R13a | Threat of violence during current inpatient treatment | 83/129 (64.3) | 30/221 (13.6) |
| R20a | Violence toward others during current inpatient treatment | 62/131 (47.3) | 12/227 (5.3) |
| PH12a | Direct coercive measure applied in past psychiatric inpatient treatment | 89/111 (80.2) | 61/192 (31.8) |
| PANSSH28 | PANSS-adopted scale at admission: Poor impulse control | 98/131 (74.8) | 83/224 (37.1) |
| PANSSH22 | PANSS-adopted scale at admission: Uncooperativeness | 97/131 (74) | 90/224 (40.2) |
| R8a | Haloperidol prescribed during current inpatient treatment | 72/130 (55.4) | 57/225 (25.3) |
| PANSS SCORE ADMH (mean, SD) | Total PANSS score at admission | 21.47 (13.03) | 17.84 (14.47) |
| R9e (mean, SD) | Olanzapine equivalent dose at discharge | 52.28 (17.83) | 42.29 (19.98) |
| PANSSH7 | PANSS-adopted scale at admission: Hostility | 84/131 (64.1) | 81/224 (36.2) |
| R28 | Estimated legal prognosis | ||
| Favorable | 18/110 (16.4) | 53/200 (26.5) | |
| Sufficient | 16/110 (14.5) | 62/200 (31) | |
| Doubtful | 27/110 (24.5) | 35/200 (17.5) | |
| Unfavorable | 49/110 (44.5) | 50/200 (25) |
SD, standard deviation; PANSS, positive and negative syndrome scale.
Final naïve Bayes model performance measures.
| Performance measures | % (95% CI) |
|---|---|
| 73.28 (0.8272–0.5888) | |
| 0.8468 (0.9573–0.7363) | |
| 72.87 (88.13–50.44) | |
| 73.68 (88.21–52.26) | |
| 71.82 (87.33–49.57) | |
| 74.68 (88.96–53.12) |
AUC, area under the curve (level of discrimination); PPV, positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value; CI, confidence interval.
Figure 2Variable importance of final model. Variable descriptions are presented in .
Comparison of this and prior studies on coercive measures employing machine learning.
| ( | ( | Current study | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Topic of study | Predictors for direct coercive measures in patients with all diagnoses in general psychiatry | Predictors for mechanical restraint in patients with all diagnoses in general psychiatry | Predictors for direct coercive measures in patients with schizophrenia in forensic psychiatry |
| Sample studied | Patients with coercion: 170 | Patients with mechanical restraint: 5050 | Patients with coercion: 131 |
| Data collection | Retrospective file content analysis | Retrospective health record and registry content analysis | Retrospective file content analysis |
| Number of potential predictors explored | Not specified | 86 | 569 |
| Similar predictor variables at statistical significance | Threat of violence as reason for involuntary admission1, prior involuntary admission to treatment, antipsychotic medication | Threat of violence measured with the Broset violence checklist, involuntary admission to treatment, threatening/abnormal behavior, sparse/non-coherent/non-informative verbal response | Threat of violence, coercive measures in prior treatment(s), haloperidol prescribed, daily olanzapine equivalent prescribed upon discharge, poor impulse control, hostility and uncooperativeness at admission, total PANSS-score at admission |
| Model accuracy (balanced) | 66.5–78.5% | Not specified | 73.3% |
| ROC AUC | 0.73–0.75 | 0.87 | 0.8468 |
| Sensitivity | 60–69% | 56% | 72.87% |
| Specificity | 78–83% | 94% | 73.68% |
ROC AUC, receiver operating characteristic curve area under the curve method, a measure for the goodness of fit of a model (67); PANSS, Positive and Negative Symptom Scale.
1Authors see a limitation in their measuring threat of violence only in terms of reason for involuntary admission.