| Literature DB >> 32473302 |
J Millstein1, T Budden2, E L Goode3, M S Anglesio4, A Talhouk5, M P Intermaggio6, H S Leong7, S Chen8, W Elatre9, B Gilks10, T Nazeran11, M Volchek12, R C Bentley13, C Wang14, D S Chiu11, S Kommoss15, S C Y Leung11, J Senz10, A Lum11, V Chow11, H Sudderuddin11, R Mackenzie11, J George16, S Fereday17, J Hendley17, N Traficante17, H Steed18, J M Koziak19, M Köbel20, I A McNeish21, T Goranova22, D Ennis21, G Macintyre22, D Silva De Silva22, T Ramón Y Cajal23, J García-Donas24, S Hernando Polo25, G C Rodriguez26, K L Cushing-Haugen27, H R Harris28, C S Greene29, R A Zelaya30, S Behrens31, R T Fortner31, P Sinn32, E Herpel33, J Lester34, J Lubiński35, O Oszurek35, A Tołoczko35, C Cybulski35, J Menkiszak36, C L Pearce37, M C Pike38, C Tseng39, J Alsop40, V Rhenius40, H Song40, M Jimenez-Linan41, A M Piskorz22, A Gentry-Maharaj42, C Karpinskyj42, M Widschwendter43, N Singh44, C J Kennedy45, R Sharma46, P R Harnett47, B Gao47, S E Johnatty48, R Sayer49, J Boros45, S J Winham14, G L Keeney50, S H Kaufmann51, M C Larson14, H Luk52, B Y Hernandez52, P J Thompson53, L R Wilkens52, M E Carney54, B Trabert55, J Lissowska56, L Brinton55, M E Sherman57, C Bodelon55, S Hinsley58, L A Lewsley58, R Glasspool59, S N Banerjee60, E A Stronach61, P Haluska62, I Ray-Coquard63, S Mahner64, B Winterhoff65, D Slamon66, D A Levine67, L E Kelemen68, J Benitez69, J Chang-Claude70, J Gronwald35, A H Wu39, U Menon42, M T Goodman53, J M Schildkraut71, N Wentzensen55, R Brown72, A Berchuck73, G Chenevix-Trench48, A deFazio45, S A Gayther74, M J García75, M J Henderson76, M A Rossing28, A Beeghly-Fadiel77, P A Fasching78, S Orsulic34, B Y Karlan34, G E Konecny66, D G Huntsman79, D D Bowtell17, J D Brenton22, J A Doherty80, P D P Pharoah81, S J Ramus82.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Median overall survival (OS) for women with high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC) is ∼4 years, yet survival varies widely between patients. There are no well-established, gene expression signatures associated with prognosis. The aim of this study was to develop a robust prognostic signature for OS in patients with HGSOC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Expression of 513 genes, selected from a meta-analysis of 1455 tumours and other candidates, was measured using NanoString technology from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumour tissue collected from 3769 women with HGSOC from multiple studies. Elastic net regularization for survival analysis was applied to develop a prognostic model for 5-year OS, trained on 2702 tumours from 15 studies and evaluated on an independent set of 1067 tumours from six studies.Entities:
Keywords: formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded; gene expression; high-grade serous ovarian cancer; overall survival; prognosis
Mesh:
Year: 2020 PMID: 32473302 PMCID: PMC7484370 DOI: 10.1016/j.annonc.2020.05.019
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Ann Oncol ISSN: 0923-7534 Impact factor: 51.769
Figure 1.Schematic of study design.
*The TRI study was split across the training and validation sets due to 107 samples overlapping with the meta-analysis. GWAS, genome-wide association studies; HGSOC, high-grade serous ovarian cancer.
Hazard ratios and 95% CIs for top five prognostic genes in covariate-adjusted single-gene analyses
| Gene | HR (95% CI) | Selection | Correlated gene[ | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.84 (0.80–0.87) | 8.3 × 10−18 | Meta | PSMB9 | 0.89 | |
| 1.19 (1.14–1.25) | 1.4 × 10−15 | Meta | LOC100192378 | 0.74 | |
| 0.85 (0.82–0.88) | 1.8 × 10−15 | Meta and candidate | CXCR6 | 0.89 | |
| 1.18 (1.13–1.24) | 4.2 × 10−14 | Candidate | SPARC[ | 0.91 | |
| 1.18 (1.13–1.24) | 1.2 × 10−13 | Meta | COL8A1 | 0.67 |
CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio.
Most correlated gene according to Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, rs, computed in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) Ovarian Serous Cystadenocarcinoma RNA-seq dataset.
SPARC was included in this project and was less significant.
Figure 2.Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves for prognostic performance of the gene expression signature in independent high-grade serous ovarian cancer patients (testing data).
There was no overlap between studies or patient data used to develop models (training data) and construct ROC curves and calculate area under the curve (AUC) values shown here (testing data). All models included age and stage as described in Methods section. TP denotes the true positive rate (sensitivity) and FP denotes the false positive rate (1 − specificity).
Figure 3.KaplaneMeier curves of overall survival for patients (A) in the training and (B) testing sets.
Patients were assigned to quintiles (Q1–Q5) of the signature score including age and stage. Shaded areas indicate 95% confidence regions, only included for plots representing larger sample sizes. Because of limited sample size, the following plots represent all such patients in the entire dataset, training or testing: (C) no macroscopic residual disease after debulking surgery, (D) primary chemotherapy treatment ≥4 cycles of intravenous (IV) carboplatin area under the curve (AUC) 5 or 6 and paclitaxel 135 or 175 mg/m2 every 3 weeks (actual dose known or presumed), (E) BRCA1 or BRCA2 germline mutation and (F) CD8 > 19.
Hazard ratios and 95% CIs for quintiles of the gene expression signature score in validation data
| Quintile | Deaths | Median survival[ | HR (95% CI) | Adjusted for age and stage | Adjusted for molecular subtype age and stage | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | |||||
| Q1 | 214 | 81 | 9.47 (8.32 to –) | 0.44 (0.33–0.58) | 0.34 (0.22–0.55) | 0.37 (0.23–0.59) |
| Q2 | 213 | 117 | 5.38 (4.63–6.97) | 0.73 (0.57–0.93) | 0.71 (0.55–0.91) | 0.74 (0.58–0.96) |
| Q3 | 213 | 145 | 3.80 (3.34–4.60) | |||
| Q4 | 213 | 158 | 3.23 (2.85–3.68) | 1.56 (1.25–1.96) | 1.56 (1.24–1.97) | 1.56 (1.24–1.96) |
| Q5 | 214 | 179 | 2.27 (2.09–2.62) | 2.23 (1.78–2.78) | 2.11 (1.67–2.67) | 2.07 (1.63–2.61) |
CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio.
Median survival (95% CI) in years for patients in the validation set.
Clinical data for the 3769 patients that passed quality control and the percentage of patients in each quintile of the gene expression score
| Total | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q5 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3769 | 754 | 754 | 753 | 754 | 754 | ||
| Median survival (years) | 4.1 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 2.3 | |
| % 5-year survival | 41 | 75 | 57 | 39 | 25 | 10 | |
| Age median | 63 | 58 | 57 | 61 | 64 | 70 | |
| Age range | 25–89 | 39–78 | 25–86 | 36–82 | 27–89 | 39–86 | |
| Age quartile Q1 | 894 | 30.8 | 31.3 | 20.0 | 13.4 | 4.5 | <1 × 10−50 |
| Age quartile Q2 | 838 | 21.5 | 20.0 | 22.9 | 21.2 | 14.3 | |
| Age quartile Q3 | 961 | 16.0 | 20.2 | 21.4 | 23.6 | 18.7 | |
| Age quartile Q4 | 1076 | 13.5 | 10.4 | 16.4 | 21.3 | 38.5 | |
| FIGO stage I/II | 607 | 97.4 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | <1 × 10−50 |
| FIGO stage III/IV | 3067 | 3.8 | 23.0 | 24.1 | 24.4 | 24.6 | |
| Primary chemo[ | 136 | 16.2 | 22.1 | 23.5 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 0.163 |
| Primary chemo[ | 190 | 16.3 | 20.0 | 21.6 | 22.1 | 20.0 | |
| Primary chemo[ | 361 | 11.1 | 16.9 | 22.4 | 20.5 | 29.1 | |
| Residual disease: No | 614 | 32.4 | 22.1 | 17.8 | 15.5 | 12.2 | <1 × 10−50 |
| Residual disease: Yes | 1157 | 6.0 | 19.2 | 24.1 | 24.5 | 26.2 | |
| Germline | 130 | 23.8 | 31.5 | 26.2 | 11.5 | 6.9 | 2.22 × 10−7 |
| Germline | 71 | 28.2 | 26.8 | 18.3 | 18.3 | 8.5 | |
| Germline no BRCA1/2 mutation | 663 | 19.6 | 16.7 | 18.7 | 20.7 | 24.3 | |
| CD8 TIL score 0 | 192 | 19.8 | 14.6 | 12.5 | 21.4 | 31.8 | 2.46 × 10−14 |
| CD8 TIL score 1–2 | 186 | 18.3 | 14.0 | 18.8 | 21.5 | 27.4 | |
| CD8 TIL score 3–19 | 515 | 19.8 | 24.1 | 20.8 | 17.9 | 17.5 | |
| CD8 TIL score >19 | 218 | 34.4 | 31.2 | 16.5 | 11.5 | 6.4 | |
| Molecular subtype C1.MES | 1105 | 5.4 | 10.4 | 20.7 | 27.4 | 36.0 | <1 × 10−50 |
| Molecular subtype C2.IMM | 907 | 23.2 | 28.8 | 21.2 | 16.2 | 10.7 | |
| Molecular subtype C4.DIF | 1144 | 32.6 | 25.5 | 17.9 | 12.8 | 11.2 | |
| Molecular subtype C5.PRO | 613 | 18.1 | 14.0 | 20.7 | 25.8 | 21.4 | |
| FIGO stage IA and IB | 111 | 96.4 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | <1 × 10−50 |
| FIGO stage IIIC | 1979 | 3.1 | 23.7 | 24.6 | 24.1 | 24.6 | <1 × 10−50 |
| FIGO stage IIIC residual disease: No | 316 | 6.3 | 31.0 | 24.4 | 20.9 | 17.4 | 6.24 × 10−45 |
| FIGO stage IIIC residual disease: Yes | 846 | 2.6 | 21.5 | 25.3 | 24.6 | 26.0 |
Q1 is the quintile with the best survival and Q5 the worst survival. Samples with missing data are reported in supplementary Table S11, available at Annals of Oncology online. P values for BRCA1/2 mutation status were calculated for BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation versus no mutation.
FIGO, International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics; TIL, tumour-infiltrating lymphocyte.
Treatment: 1 = known to have received first-line chemotherapy treatment of ≥4 cycles of IV carboplatin AUC 5 or 6 and paclitaxel 135 or 175 mg/m2 every 3 weeks. 2 = known to have received first-line chemotherapy treatment of ≥4 cycles of IV carboplatin and paclitaxel three times weekly but at doses presumed to be carboplatin AUC 5 or 6 and paclitaxel 135 or 175 mg/m2. 3 = all remaining cases with chemo regimens that do not fit criteria 1 or 2 and include unknown or no chemotherapy.