| Literature DB >> 32460867 |
Ahmad Abujaber1, Adam Fadlalla2, Diala Gammoh3, Husham Abdelrahman4, Monira Mollazehi4, Ayman El-Menyar5,6.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The use of machine learning techniques to predict diseases outcomes has grown significantly in the last decade. Several studies prove that the machine learning predictive techniques outperform the classical multivariate techniques. We aimed to build a machine learning predictive model to predict the in-hospital mortality for patients who sustained Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI).Entities:
Keywords: Machine learning approach; Prediction models; Traumatic brain injury
Year: 2020 PMID: 32460867 PMCID: PMC7251921 DOI: 10.1186/s13049-020-00738-5
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Scand J Trauma Resusc Emerg Med ISSN: 1757-7241 Impact factor: 2.953
examples of popular TBI prognostic models
| Model | Applies to | Objective(s) | Variables | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) | Trauma patients treated at hospitals with or without TBI [ | Calculates the probability of survival | Age, revised trauma score (GCS, systolic blood pressure, respiratory rate), trauma type and Injury severity score (ISS) [ | • Good discrimination power • Not specifically designed for TBI [ • Prone to poor performance in severe TBI [ • AUC in previous studies: 89% [ |
| The International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in TBI (IMPACT) | Adult patients (age ≥ 14 years) with TBI and GCS ≤ 12 | Predicts the 6-month mortality and unfavorable outcomes [ | Age, GCS motor scale, pupils reactivity, hypoxia, hypotension, CT results (epidural or subarachnoid hemorrhage), lab values (blood glucose level and hemoglobin concentration) [ | • Good discrimination power • Accurate outcome prediction when large sample size is utilized [ • Poor precision at the individual patient level [ • AUC in previous studies: 80% [ |
| Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head injury (CRASH) | Adult patients (age ≥ 16 years) with TBI and GCS ≤14 (9) | Predicts the probabilities of 14-day mortality and 6-month unfavorable outcome [ | Age, GCS, Pupils reactivity, major extracranial hemorrhage and CT findings (midline shift, obliteration of third ventricle, subarachnoid hemorrhage, petechial hemorrhage, and non-evacuated mass) [ | • Good discrimination power [ • Accurate outcome prediction when large sample size is utilized [ • Poor precision at the individual patient level [ • AUC in previous studies: 86% [ |
| Marshall scale | Patients who sustained TBI | Grades the TBI and predicts the TBI outcomes on the basis of CT scan findings | Presence of mass lesion, midline shift, and status of the peri mesencephalic cisterns | • Simple to use • Reasonable discrimination power • Narrow scope (limited to 3 variables) • Limited applicability to clinical practice [ • AUC in previous studies: 71% [ |
| Rotterdam CT scoring | Patients who sustained TBI | Grades the TBI and predicts the TBI outcomes on the basis of CT scan findings | Presence of mass lesion, midline shift, status of the peri mesencephalic cisterns and the presence of traumatic intra-ventricular or sub-arachnoid hemorrhage (tSAH) [ | • Reasonable discrimination power • Does not differentiate between the type and size of the mass lesion [ • AUC in previous studies: 69.8% [ |
| Helsinki Computerized Tomography Score Chart | Patients who sustained TBI | Grades the TBI and predicts the TBI outcomes on the basis of CT scan findings | Mass lesion type, Mass lesion size, presence of intraventricular hemorrhage, suprasellar cistern | • Superior to Marshall and Rotterdam scales • Good accuracy and discrimination power • Lower performance when used alone as a predictive method [ • Reported AUC: 71.7% [ |
Fig. 1Research methodology
data partitions
| Set | Proportion | Number of cases | Number of alive patients | Number of dead patients |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | 1120 | 977 | 143 | |
| 30% | 500 | 440 | 60 | |
Sample characteristics- continuous variables
| Variable | N | Mean | SD | Mean at death |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1620 | 34.4 | 13.9 | 37.2 | |
| 1620 | 127.66 | 22.6 | 118 | |
| 1620 | 93 | 22.9 | 108.5 |
Sample characteristics - Nominal and ordinal variables
| Variable | Category | Count/% | With Outcome 0 (Alive)/% | With Outcome 1 (Dead)/% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian | 977/60.3% | 858/87.8% | 119/12.2% | |
| Other | 643/39.7% | 559/86.9 | 84/13.1% | |
| Total/% | 1620/100% | 1417/87.5% | 203/12.5% | |
| MVC1 | 486/30% | 413/85% | 73/15% | |
| Fall | 551/34% | 495/89.8% | 56/10.2% | |
| Pedestrian | 268/16.5% | 216/80.6% | 52/19.4% | |
| Other | 315/19.4% | 293/93% | 22/7% | |
| Total/% | 1620/100% | 1417/87.5% | 203/12.5% | |
| Ambulance | 1350/83.3% | 1167/86.4% | 183/13.5% | |
| Other | 270/16.7% | 250/92.6% | 20/7.4% | |
| Total/% | 1620/100% | 1417/87.5% | 203/12.5% | |
| No | 1260/77.8% | 1155/91.7% | 105/8.3% | |
| Yes | 360/22.2% | 262/72.8% | 98/27.2% | |
| Total/% | 1620/100% | 1417/87.5% | 203/12.5% | |
| SDH2 | 455/28.1% | 380/83.5% | 75/16.5% | |
| EDH3 | 371/22.9% | 352/94.9% | 19/5.1% | |
| SAH4 | 152/9.4% | 114/75% | 38/25% | |
| CONT5 | 321/19.8% | 303/94.4% | 18/5.6% | |
| DAI6 | 120/7.4% | 99/82.5% | 21/17.5% | |
| Other | 201/12.4% | 169/84.1% | 32/15.9% | |
| Total/% | 1620/100% | 1417/87.5% | 203/12.5% | |
| No | 1517/93.6% | 1370/90.3% | 147/9.7% | |
| Yes | 103/6.4% | 47/45.6% | 56/54.4% | |
| Total/% | 1620/100% | 1417/87.5% | 203/12.5% | |
| No | 981/60.6% | 857/87.4% | 124/12.6% | |
| Yes | 639/39.4 | 560/87.6% | 79/12.4 | |
| Total/% | 1620/100% | 1417/87.5% | 203/12.5% | |
| No | 1273/78.6% | 1152/90.5% | 121/9.5% | |
| Yes | 347/21.4% | 265/76.4% | 82/23.6% | |
| Total/% | 1620/100% | 1417/87.5% | 203/12.5% | |
| No | 1482/91.5% | 1319/89% | 163/11% | |
| Yes | 138/8.5% | 98/71% | 40/29% | |
| Total/% | 1620/100% | 1417/87.5% | 203/12.5% | |
| No | 1387/85.6% | 1251/90.2% | 136/9.8% | |
| Yes | 233/14.4% | 166/71.2% | 67/28.8% | |
| Total/% | 1620/100% | 1417/87.5% | 203/12.5% | |
| No | 1417/87.5% | 1278/90.2% | 139/9.8% | |
| Yes | 203/12.5% | 139/68.5% | 64/31.5% | |
| Total/% | 1620/100% | 1417/87.5% | 203/12.5% | |
| 13–15 | 893/55.1% | 875/98% | 18/2% | |
| 9–12 | 122/7.5% | 113/92.6% | 9/4.4% | |
| ≤ 8 | 605/37.3% | 429/70.9% | 176/29.1% | |
| Total/% | 1620/100% | 1417/87.5% | 203/12.5% | |
| 7 am-6:59 pm | 858/53% | 758/88.3% | 100/11.7% | |
| 7 pm-6:59 pm | 762/47% | 659/86.5% | 103/13.5% | |
| Total/% | 1620/100% | 1417/87.5% | 203/12.5% | |
| No | 1328/82% | 1167/87.9% | 161/12.1% | |
| Yes | 292/18% | 250/85.6% | 42/14.4% | |
| Total/% | 1620/100% | 1417/87.5% | 203/12.5% | |
| No | 848/52.3% | 847/99.9% | 1/0.1% | |
| Yes | 772/47.7% | 570/73.8% | 202/26.2% | |
| Total/% | 1620/100% | 1417/87.5% | 203/12.5% | |
| No | 656/40.5% | 537/81.9% | 119/18.1% | |
| Yes | 964/59.5% | 880/91.3% | 84/8.7% | |
| Total/% | 1620/100% | 1417/87.5% | 203/12.5% | |
| No | 1013/62.5% | 989/97.6% | 24/2.4% | |
| Yes | 607/37.5% | 428/70.5% | 179/29.5% | |
| Total/% | 1620/100% | 1417/87.5% | 203/12.5% |
(1) MVC Motor Vehicle Crash, (2) SDH Subdural Hemorrhage, (3) EDH Epidural Hemorrhage, (4) SAH Subarachnoid Hemorrhage, (5) CONT Hemorrhagic Contusion, (6) DAI Diffuse Axonal Injury, (7) VTE Venous Thromboembolism
Performance of the classification models
| Model | Number of predictors | Accuracy (%) | AUC (%) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | F-Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 95.6 | 96 | 88 | 97 | 73 | 99 | 0.8 | |
| 21 | 91.6 | 93.5 | 66 | 96 | 62 | 96 | 0.64 |
Fig. 2Importance of predictors in Support Vector Machines