Nonlinear dynamics of fires in Africa over recent decades controlled by precipitation.

Dynamics of fires in Africa are of critical importance for understanding changes in ecosystem properties and effects on the global carbon cycle. Given increasing fire risk from projected warming on the one hand and a documented human-driven decline in fires on the other, it is still unknown how the complex interplay between climate and human factors affects recent changes of fires in Africa. Moreover, the impact of recent strong El Niño events on fire dynamics is not yet known. By applying an ensemble empirical mode decomposition method to satellite-derived fire burned area, we investigated the spatio-temporal evolution of fires in Africa over 2001-2016 and identified the potential dominant drivers. Our results show an overall decline of fire rates, which is continuous over the time period and mainly caused by cropland expansion in northern sub-Saharan Africa. However, we also find that years of high precipitation have caused an initial increase in fire rates in southern Africa, which reversed to a decline in later years. This decline is caused by a high frequency of dry years leading to very low fuel loads, suggesting that recent drought causes a general reduction of burned areas, in particular in xeric savannas. In some mesic regions (10°-15°S), solar radiation and increased temperature caused increase in fires. These findings show that climate change overrules the impact of human expansion on fire rates at the continental scale in Africa, reducing the fire risk.