Depressive symptoms predict smoking cessation in a 20-year longitudinal study of adult twins.

Depression has been suggested to hinder smoking cessation, especially when co-occurring with nicotine dependence. The study aimed to examine the longitudinal association of depressive symptoms with smoking cessation among daily smokers. The study utilized adult Finnish twin cohort where 1438 daily smokers (mean age: 38.3, range: 33-45) in 1990 were re-examined for their smoking status in 2011. We assessed baseline depressive symptoms with the Beck Depression Inventory, and the self-reported smoking status at follow-up. The methods included multinomial logistic regression and time to event analyses, adjusted for multiple covariates (age, sex, marital status, social class, heavy drinking occasions, and health status) and smoking heaviness at baseline assessed by cigarettes per day (CPD). Additionally, within-twin-pair analyses were conducted. Results indicated that moderate/severe depressive symptoms at baseline were associated with a lower likelihood of smoking cessation two decades later. Adjusting for covariates, those with moderate/severe depressive symptoms (vs. no/minimal depressive symptoms) had 46% lower likelihood of quitting (relative risk ratio, RRR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.30-0.96). After including CPD, the association of depressive symptoms with smoking cessation attenuated modestly (RRR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.34-1.12). Further, time to event analysis for quitting year since baseline yielded similar findings. In the within-pair analysis, depressive symptoms were not associated with quitting smoking. The results suggest that reporting more depressive symptoms is associated with a lower likelihood of smoking cessation during a 20-year period. The baseline amount of smoking and familial factors partly explain the observed association. Smoking cessation programs should monitor depressive symptoms.