Paulo Jorge Nogueira1, Miguel De Araújo Nobre2, Paulo Jorge Nicola3, Cristina Furtado4, António Vaz Carneiro5. 1. Institute of Preventive Medicine and Public Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Laboratory of Biomathematics. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon; Institute for Evidence Based Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon; Institute for Environmental Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Portugal. 2. Institute for Evidence Based Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Cochrane Portugal. Lisbon. Stomatological University Clinic. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Portugal. 3. Institute for Evidence Based Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Cochrane Portugal. Lisbon. Epidemiology Unit. Institute of Preventive Medicine and Public Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Portugal. 4. Institute of Preventive Medicine and Public Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Institute for Environmental Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Epidemiology Unit. Institute of Preventive Medicine and Public Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. National Institute of Health Dr. Ricardo Jorge. Lisbon. Portugal. 5. Institute of Preventive Medicine and Public Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Institute for Evidence Based Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Cochrane Portugal. Lisbon. Portugal.
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Portugal is experiencing the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic since March 2020. All-causes mortality in Portugal increased during March and April 2020 compared to previous years, but this increase is not explained by COVID-19 reported deaths. The aim of this study was to analyze and consider other criteria for estimating excessive all-cause mortality during the early COVID-19 pandemic period. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Public data was used to estimate excess mortality by age and region between March 1 and April 22, proposing baselines adjusted for the lockdown period. RESULTS: An excess mortality of 2400 to 4000 deaths was observed. Excess mortality was associated with older age groups (over age 65) [corrected]. DISCUSSION: The data suggests a ternary explanation for early excess mortality: COVID-19, non-identified COVID-19 and decrease in access to healthcare. The estimates have implications in terms of communication of non-pharmaceutical actions, for research, and to healthcare professionals. CONCLUSION: Despite the inherent uncertainty, the excess mortality occurred between March 1 and April 22 could be 3.5- to 5-fold higher than what can be explained by the official COVID-19 deaths [corrected].
INTRODUCTION: Portugal is experiencing the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic since March 2020. All-causes mortality in Portugal increased during March and April 2020 compared to previous years, but this increase is not explained by COVID-19 reported deaths. The aim of this study was to analyze and consider other criteria for estimating excessive all-cause mortality during the early COVID-19 pandemic period. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Public data was used to estimate excess mortality by age and region between March 1 and April 22, proposing baselines adjusted for the lockdown period. RESULTS: An excess mortality of 2400 to 4000 deaths was observed. Excess mortality was associated with older age groups (over age 65) [corrected]. DISCUSSION: The data suggests a ternary explanation for early excess mortality: COVID-19, non-identified COVID-19 and decrease in access to healthcare. The estimates have implications in terms of communication of non-pharmaceutical actions, for research, and to healthcare professionals. CONCLUSION: Despite the inherent uncertainty, the excess mortality occurred between March 1 and April 22 could be 3.5- to 5-fold higher than what can be explained by the official COVID-19deaths [corrected].
Entities:
Keywords:
Coronavirus; Coronavirus Infections; Disease Outbreaks; Mortality; Pandemics; Portugal