Lauren Zajac1, Roni W Kobrosly2, Bret Ericson3, Jack Caravanos4, Philip J Landrigan2, Anne M Riederer5. 1. Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, One Gustave L. Levy Place, Box 1057, New York, NY, 10029, USA. Electronic address: lauren.zajac@mssm.edu. 2. Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, One Gustave L. Levy Place, Box 1057, New York, NY, 10029, USA. 3. Pure Earth, 475 Riverside Drive, Suite 860, New York, NY, 10115, USA; Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Macquarie University, North Ryde, Sydney, NSW, 2109, Australia. 4. College of Global Public Health, New York University, 665 Broadway, New York, NY, 10012, USA. 5. Pure Earth, 475 Riverside Drive, Suite 860, New York, NY, 10115, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, 950 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC, 20052, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Washington, 1959 NE Pacific Street, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Prior estimates of pediatric lead-related disease burden in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) used population estimates of maternal blood lead levels (BLLs). This approach may underestimate fetal BLLs by not considering potentially high prenatal lead exposure from toxic hotspots. OBJECTIVES: We developed a probabilistic approach to using the Adult Lead Methodology (ALM) to estimate fetal BLLs from prenatal exposure to lead-contaminated soil at hotspots in the Toxic Site Identification Program (TSIP). METHODS: We created distributions for each ALM parameter using published literature and extracted soil lead measurements from the TSIP database. Each iteration of the probabilistic ALM randomly selected values from the input distributions to generate a site-specific fetal BLL estimate. For each site, we ran 5000 model iterations, producing a site-specific fetal BLL distribution. RESULTS: 195 TSIP sites, in 33 LMICs, met our study inclusion criteria; an estimated 820,000 women of childbearing age are at risk for lead exposure at these sites. The predicted geometric means (GM) for site-specific fetal BLLs ranged from 3.3 μg/dL to 534 μg/dL, and 98% of sites had estimated GM fetal BLLs >5 μg/dL, the current reference level of the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), while 11 sites had estimated GM fetal BLLs above the CDC chelation threshold of 45 μg/dL. DISCUSSION: The TSIP soil lead data and this probabilistic approach to the ALM show that pregnant women living near TSIP sites may have BLLs that put their fetus at risk for neurologic damage and other sequelae, underscoring the need for interventions to reduce lead exposure at toxic hotspots.
BACKGROUND: Prior estimates of pediatric lead-related disease burden in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) used population estimates of maternal blood lead levels (BLLs). This approach may underestimate fetal BLLs by not considering potentially high prenatal lead exposure from toxic hotspots. OBJECTIVES: We developed a probabilistic approach to using the Adult Lead Methodology (ALM) to estimate fetal BLLs from prenatal exposure to lead-contaminated soil at hotspots in the Toxic Site Identification Program (TSIP). METHODS: We created distributions for each ALM parameter using published literature and extracted soil lead measurements from the TSIP database. Each iteration of the probabilistic ALM randomly selected values from the input distributions to generate a site-specific fetal BLL estimate. For each site, we ran 5000 model iterations, producing a site-specific fetal BLL distribution. RESULTS: 195 TSIP sites, in 33 LMICs, met our study inclusion criteria; an estimated 820,000 women of childbearing age are at risk for lead exposure at these sites. The predicted geometric means (GM) for site-specific fetal BLLs ranged from 3.3 μg/dL to 534 μg/dL, and 98% of sites had estimated GM fetal BLLs >5 μg/dL, the current reference level of the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), while 11 sites had estimated GM fetal BLLs above the CDC chelation threshold of 45 μg/dL. DISCUSSION: The TSIP soil lead data and this probabilistic approach to the ALM show that pregnant women living near TSIP sites may have BLLs that put their fetus at risk for neurologic damage and other sequelae, underscoring the need for interventions to reduce lead exposure at toxic hotspots.
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