Assessing remedial effectiveness through the blood lead:soil/dust lead relationship at the Bunker Hill Superfund Site in the Silver Valley of Idaho.

The 21 square mile Bunker Hill Superfund Site in northern Idaho includes several thousand acres of contaminated hillsides and floodplain, a 365-acre abandoned lead/zinc smelter and is home to more than 7000 people in 5 residential communities. Childhood lead poisoning was epidemic in the 1970s with >75% of children exceeding 40 microg/dl blood lead. Health response activities have been ongoing for three decades. In 1991, a blood lead goal of 95% of children with levels less than 10 microg/dl was adopted. The cleanup strategy, based on biokinetic pathways models, was to reduce house dust lead exposure through elimination of soil-borne sources. An interim health intervention program, that included monitoring blood lead and exposures levels, was instituted to reduce exposures through parental education during the cleanup. In 1989 and 2001, 56% and 3% of children, respectively, exceeded the blood lead criteria. More than 4000 paired blood lead/environmental exposure observations were collected during this period. Several analyses of these data were accomplished. Slope factors derived for the relationship between blood lead, soil and dust concentrations are age-dependent and similar to literature reported values. Repeat measures analysis assessing year to year changes found that the remediation effort (without intervention) had approximately a 7.5 microg/dl effect in reducing a 2-year-old child's mean blood lead level over the course of the last ten years. Those receiving intervention had an additional 2-15 microg/dl decrease. Structural equations models indicate that from 40 to 50% of the blood lead absorbed from soils and dusts is through house dust with approximately 30% directly from community-wide soils and 30% from the home yard and immediate neighborhood. Both mean blood lead levels and percent of children to exceed 10 microg/dl have paralleled soil/dust lead intake rates estimated from the pathways model. Application of the IEUBK model for lead indicates that recommended USEPA default parameters overestimate mean blood lead levels, although the magnitude of over-prediction is diminished in recent years. Application of the site-specific model, using the soil and dust partitions suggested in the pathways model and an effective bioavailability of 18%, accurately predicts mean blood lead levels and percent of children to exceed 10 microg/dl throughout the 11-year cleanup period. This reduced response rate application of the IEUBK is consistent with the analysis used to originally develop the cleanup criteria and indicates the blood lead goal will be achieved.