Secular Trends in the Incidence of Hip Fracture Among Nursing Home Residents.

A recent study suggested a decline in the incidence of hip fracture among US women between 2002 and 2012, followed by a leveling in the incidence rate from 2013 to 2015. Newly admitted nursing home residents are particularly vulnerable to hip fracture, and it is unclear whether that trend is observed in this high risk group. The purpose of our study was to describe trends in hip fracture rates and postfracture mortality among 2.6 million newly admitted US nursing home residents from 2007 to 2015, and to examine whether these trends could be explained by differences in resident characteristics. Medicare claims data were linked with the Minimum Data Set (MDS), a clinical assessment performed quarterly on all nursing home residents. In each year (2007-2015), we identified newly admitted long-stay (ie, 100 days in the same facility) nursing home residents. Hip fracture was defined using Medicare Part A diagnostic codes. Follow-up time was calculated from the index date until the first event of hospitalized hip fracture, Medicare disenrollment, death, or until 1 year. Poisson regression was used to adjust rates of hip fracture for age and sex. The number of newly admitted nursing home residents ranged from 324,508 in 2007 to 257,350 in 2015. Although mean age remained similar (83 years), residents were more functionally dependent over time. There was a small absolute decrease in the incidence rate of hip fracture between 2007 (3.32/100 person-years) and 2013 (2.82/100 person-years), with an increase again in 2015 (3.03/100 person-years). Adjusting for patient characteristics somewhat attenuated these trends. One-year mortality was high following fracture in all years (42.6% in 2007, 42.1% in 2014). In summary, we observed a recent slight rise in the incidence rates of hip fracture among nursing home residents that was at least partially explained by differences in resident characteristics over time.