| Literature DB >> 32300559 |
Kai-Li Xing1,2,3, Liang-He Lu2,3,4, Xin Huang1,2,3, Chao-Bin He1,2,3, Yun-Da Song1,2,3, Rong-Ping Guo2,3,4, Sheng-Ping Li1,2,3.
Abstract
Background: The prognosis of patients with post-operative recurrent intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is at great variance. We aimed to propose a novel efficient prognostic nomogram in facilitating the risk stratification for post-operative recurrent ICC patients.Entities:
Keywords: intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma; nomogram; post-recurrence survival; recurrence; resection
Year: 2020 PMID: 32300559 PMCID: PMC7142225 DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2020.00434
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Front Oncol ISSN: 2234-943X Impact factor: 6.244
Demographics and clinicopathologic characteristics of patients.
| Age (y) | ||||
| ≤60 | 120 | 67.4 | 36 | 61.0 |
| >60 | 58 | 32.6 | 23 | 39.0 |
| Sex | ||||
| Male | 119 | 66.9 | 44 | 74.6 |
| Female | 59 | 33.1 | 15 | 25.4 |
| History of hepatitis | ||||
| Yes | 84 | 47.2 | 26 | 44.1 |
| No | 94 | 52.8 | 33 | 55.9 |
| Alpha-fetoprotein (ng/mL) | ||||
| ≤25 | 159 | 89.3 | 50 | 84.7 |
| >25 | 19 | 10.7 | 9 | 15.3 |
| Carbohydrate antigen 19–9 (U/mL) | ||||
| ≤200 | 129 | 72.5 | 42 | 71.2 |
| >200 | 49 | 27.5 | 17 | 28.8 |
| Platelet count (×109/L) | ||||
| ≤100 | 6 | 3.4 | 0 | 0 |
| >100 | 172 | 96.6 | 59 | 100.0 |
| Liver function | ||||
| Alanine aminotransferase (U/L) | ||||
| ≤40 | 131 | 73.6 | 49 | 83.1 |
| >40 | 47 | 26.4 | 10 | 16.9 |
| Prothrombin time (s) | ||||
| ≤13.5 | 163 | 91.6 | 51 | 86.4 |
| >13.5 | 15 | 8.4 | 8 | 13.6 |
| Serum albumin (g/L) | ||||
| ≤35 | 11 | 6.2 | 7 | 11.9 |
| >35 | 167 | 93.8 | 52 | 88.1 |
| Total bilirubin (μmol/L) | ||||
| ≤20.5 | 155 | 87.1 | 52 | 88.1 |
| >20.5 | 23 | 12.9 | 7 | 11.9 |
| Liver cirrhosis | ||||
| Present | 56 | 31.5 | 9 | 15.3 |
| Absent | 122 | 68.5 | 50 | 84.7 |
| ALBI grade | ||||
| 1 | 149 | 83.7 | 48 | 81.4 |
| 2 | 29 | 16.3 | 11 | 18.6 |
| Tumor burden | ||||
| Greatest tumor size (cm) | ||||
| ≤5 | 82 | 46.1 | 23 | 39.0 |
| >5 | 96 | 53.9 | 36 | 61.0 |
| Tumor number | ||||
| Single | 156 | 87.6 | 44 | 74.6 |
| Multiple | 22 | 12.4 | 15 | 25.4 |
| Macroscopic vascular invasion | ||||
| Present | 38 | 21.3 | 7 | 11.9 |
| Absent | 140 | 78.7 | 52 | 88.1 |
| Lymph node metastasis | ||||
| N0 | 43 | 24.2 | 7 | 11.9 |
| N1 | 28 | 15.7 | 11 | 18.6 |
| NX | 107 | 60.1 | 41 | 69.5 |
| Capsule | ||||
| Incomplete | 155 | 87.1 | 52 | 88.1 |
| Complete | 23 | 12.9 | 7 | 11.9 |
| Anatomic resection | ||||
| Yes | 103 | 57.9 | 37 | 62.7 |
| No | 75 | 42.1 | 22 | 37.3 |
| Surgical margin (cm) | ||||
| ≤1 | 70 | 39.3 | 30 | 50.8 |
| >1 | 108 | 60.7 | 29 | 49.2 |
| Blood loss (ml) | ||||
| ≤400 | 138 | 77.5 | 44 | 74.6 |
| >400 | 40 | 22.5 | 15 | 25.4 |
| Tumor differentiation | ||||
| Well | 2 | 1.1 | 1 | 1.7 |
| Moderate | 123 | 69.1 | 43 | 72.9 |
| Poor | 53 | 29.8 | 15 | 25.4 |
| Adjuvant therapy | ||||
| Yes | 20 | 11.2 | 10 | 16.9 |
| No | 158 | 88.8 | 49 | 83.1 |
| Characteristics at recurrence | ||||
| Time to recurrence (y) | ||||
| >2 | 11 | 6.2 | 1 | 1.7 |
| 1-2 | 42 | 23.6 | 8 | 13.6 |
| ≤1 | 125 | 70.2 | 50 | 84.7 |
| Number at recurrence | ||||
| Single | 83 | 46.6 | 22 | 37.3 |
| Multiple | 95 | 53.4 | 37 | 62.7 |
| Size of recurrence (cm) | ||||
| ≤5 | 153 | 86.0 | 57 | 96.6 |
| >5 | 25 | 14.0 | 2 | 3.4 |
| Site of recurrence | ||||
| Intrahepatic | 104 | 58.4 | 32 | 54.2 |
| Extrahepatic | 17 | 9.6 | 9 | 15.3 |
| Intra- and extrahepatic | 57 | 32.0 | 18 | 30.5 |
| CA19-9 at recurrence (U/mL) | ||||
| ≤200 | 132 | 74.2 | 47 | 79.7 |
| >200 | 46 | 25.8 | 12 | 20.3 |
| ALBI grade at recurrence | ||||
| 1 | 121 | 68.0 | 42 | 71.2 |
| 2 | 55 | 30.9 | 16 | 27.1 |
| 3 | 2 | 1.1 | 1 | 1.7 |
| Treatment allocation | ||||
| Supportive care | 46 | 25.8 | 14 | 23.7 |
| Non-radical treatment | 64 | 36.0 | 20 | 33.9 |
| Radical treatment | 68 | 38.2 | 25 | 42.4 |
HBV, hepatitis B virus; HCV, hepatitis C virus; ALBI, albumin-bilirubin.
Lymph node metastasis: N0, negative; N1, positive; NX, lymph nodes not harvested.
Surgical margin: the shortest measured distance from the edge of the tumor to the plane of liver transection.
Non-radical treatment: TACE, systematic chemotherapy or radiotherapy; radical treatment: resection or ablation.
Cox proportional hazards regression model showing the association of variables with post-recurrence survival.
| Characteristics at initial liver resection | ||||
| Age, years (>60: ≤60) | 1.079 (0.674–1.727) | 0.751 | ||
| Sex (female: male) | 1.042 (0.652–1.666) | 0.862 | ||
| Hepatitis (yes: no) | 1.141 (0.733–1.774) | 0.559 | ||
| AFP, ng/mL (>25: ≤25) | 1.502 (0.748–3.015) | 0.252 | ||
| CA19-9, U/mL (>200: ≤200) | 2.506 (1.527–4.114) | <0.001 | 2.318 (1.347–3.990) | 0.002 |
| PLT, ×109/L (>100: ≤100) | 0.327 (0.141–0.758) | 0.009 | ||
| ALT, U/L (>40: ≤40) | 1.349 (0.824–2.209) | 0.234 | ||
| ALBI grade, (II: I) | 1.611 (0.951–2.728) | 0.076 | ||
| Liver cirrhosis (yes: no) | 1.093 (0.690–1.730) | 0.705 | ||
| Tumor size, cm (>5: ≤5) | 2.093 (1.301–3.369) | 0.002 | ||
| Tumor number (multiple: single) | 2.016 (1.019–3.986) | 0.044 | ||
| Lymph node metastasis | ||||
| N0 | 1.0 [reference] | 0.019 [reference] | ||
| N1 | 2.117 (1.044–4.295) | |||
| NX | 0.920 (0.519–1.632) | |||
| Capsule (complete: incomplete) | 1.336 (0.721–2.475) | 0.357 | ||
| Macroscopic vascular invasion (yes: no) | 1.554 (0.879–2.747) | 0.130 | ||
| Anatomic resection (yes: no) | 0.996 (0.766–1.218) | 0.769 | ||
| Surgical margin, cm (>1: ≤1) | 1.064 (0.880–1.286) | 0.522 | ||
| Blood loss, ml (>400: ≤400) | 1.323 (0.801–2.184) | 0.275 | ||
| Tumor differentiation | ||||
| Well | 1.0 [reference] | 0.712 [reference] | ||
| Moderate | 2.093 (0.287–15.237) | |||
| Poor | 1.859 (0.249–13.889) | |||
| Adjuvant therapy (yes: no) | 1.027 (0.512–2.061) | 0.940 | ||
| Characteristics at recurrence | ||||
| Time to recurrence, years | ||||
| ≤1 | 1.0 [reference] | 0.014 [reference] | 1.0 [reference] | 0.010 |
| 1–2 | 0.510 (0.296–0.881) | 0.609 (0.333–1.115) | ||
| >2 | 0.361 (0.130–1.003) | 0.202 (0.067–0.245) | ||
| Number at recurrence (multiple: single) | 2.180 (1.377–3.453) | 0.001 | 1.735 (1.062–2.834) | 0.028 |
| Size of recurrence, cm (>5: ≤5) | 1.391 (0.780–2.482) | 0.264 | ||
| Site of recurrence | ||||
| Intrahepatic | 1.0 [reference] | 0.058 [reference] | ||
| Extrahepatic | 1.038 (0.466–2.311) | |||
| Intra- and extrahepatic | 1.779 (1.099–2.881) | |||
| CA19-9 at recurrence, U/mL (>200: ≤200) | 2.643 (1.613–4.333) | <0.001 | ||
| ALBI grade at recurrence | ||||
| I | 1.0 [reference] | <0.001 [reference] | 1.0 [reference] | <0.001 |
| II | 2.420 (2.536–3.813) | 2.549 (1.568–4.146) | ||
| III | 3.397 (0.816–14.140) | 9.672 (1.896–49.334) | ||
| Treatment allocation | ||||
| Supportive care | 1.0 [reference] | <0.001 [reference] | 1.0 [reference] | <0.001 |
| Non-radical treatment | 0.609 (0.370–1.004) | 0.663 (0.393–1.119) | ||
| Radical treatment | 0.144 (0.078–0.266) | 0.135 (0.071–0.259) | ||
95% CI, 95% confidence interval; AFP, alpha-fetoprotein; PLT, platelet; ALT, alanine aminotransferase; ALBI, albumin-bilirubin.
Lymph node metastasis: N0, negative; N1, positive; NX, lymph nodes not harvested.
Surgical margin: the shortest measured distance from the edge of the tumor to the plane of liver transection.
Non-radical treatment: TACE, systematic chemotherapy or radiotherapy; radical treatment: resection or ablation.
Figure 1Nomogram for predicting the 1 and 3 years post-recurrence survival rates in patients with post-operative recurrence of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.
Figure 2The calibration curve for predicting patient survival at (A) 1 year and (B) 3 years in the training cohort and at (C) 1 year in the validation cohort. Nomogram-predicted probability of overall survival is plotted on the x-axis; actual overall survival is plotted on the y-axis.
Figure 3Kaplan-Meier survival curves categorized by different staging systems: the training cohort: [(A) American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th edition; (B) Nathan; (C) Okabayashi; (D) Liver Cancer Study Group of Japan (LCSGJ); (E) our nomogram]; the validation cohort: [(F) AJCC 8th edition; (G) Nathan; (H) Okabayashi; (I) LCSGJ; (J) our nomogram].