Y Wang1, X Y You1, Y J Wang2, L P Peng1, Z C Du1, S Gilmour3, D Yoneoka3, J Gu4, C Hao4, Y T Hao4, J H Li4. 1. School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China. 2. School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke's International University, Tokyo 104-0045, Japan. 3. Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke's International University, Tokyo 104-0045, Japan. 4. School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.
Abstract
Objective: The number of confirmed and suspected cases of the COVID-19 in Hubei province is still increasing. However, the estimations of the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 varied greatly across studies. The objectives of this study are 1) to estimate the basic reproduction number (R(0)) of COVID-19 reflecting the infectiousness of the virus and 2) to assess the effectiveness of a range of controlling intervention. Methods: The reported number of daily confirmed cases from January 17 to February 8, 2020 in Hubei province were collected and used for model fit. Four methods, the exponential growth (EG), maximum likelihood estimation (ML), sequential Bayesian method (SB) and time dependent reproduction numbers (TD), were applied to estimate the R(0). Results: Among the four methods, the EG method fitted the data best. The estimated R(0) was 3.49 (95%CI: 3.42-3.58) by using EG method. The R(0) was estimated to be 2.95 (95%CI: 2.86-3.03) after taking control measures. Conclusions: In the early stage of the epidemic, it is appropriate to estimate R(0) using the EG method. Meanwhile, timely and effective control measures were warranted to further reduce the spread of COVID-19.
Objective: The number of confirmed and suspected cases of the COVID-19 in Hubei province is still increasing. However, the estimations of the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 varied greatly across studies. The objectives of this study are 1) to estimate the basic reproduction number (R(0)) of COVID-19 reflecting the infectiousness of the virus and 2) to assess the effectiveness of a range of controlling intervention. Methods: The reported number of daily confirmed cases from January 17 to February 8, 2020 in Hubei province were collected and used for model fit. Four methods, the exponential growth (EG), maximum likelihood estimation (ML), sequential Bayesian method (SB) and time dependent reproduction numbers (TD), were applied to estimate the R(0). Results: Among the four methods, the EG method fitted the data best. The estimated R(0) was 3.49 (95%CI: 3.42-3.58) by using EG method. The R(0) was estimated to be 2.95 (95%CI: 2.86-3.03) after taking control measures. Conclusions: In the early stage of the epidemic, it is appropriate to estimate R(0) using the EG method. Meanwhile, timely and effective control measures were warranted to further reduce the spread of COVID-19.
Authors: David Bell; Kristian Schultz Hansen; Agnes N Kiragga; Andrew Kambugu; John Kissa; Anthony K Mbonye Journal: Am J Trop Med Hyg Date: 2020-09 Impact factor: 2.345
Authors: Jin Shen; Hongyang Duan; Baoying Zhang; Jiaqi Wang; John S Ji; Jiao Wang; Lijun Pan; Xianliang Wang; Kangfeng Zhao; Bo Ying; Song Tang; Jian Zhang; Chen Liang; Huihui Sun; Yuebin Lv; Yan Li; Tao Li; Li Li; Hang Liu; Liubo Zhang; Lin Wang; Xiaoming Shi Journal: Environ Pollut Date: 2020-07-31 Impact factor: 8.071