Jie Zeng1, Junguo Zhang1, Ziyi Li1, Tianwang Li2, Guowei Li1. 1. Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Methodology (CCEM), Guangdong Second Provincial General Hospital, Guangzhou, China. 2. Department of Rheumatology and Immunology, Guangdong Second Provincial General Hospital, Guangzhou, China.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Risk of hyperuricemia (HU) has been shown to be strongly associated with dietary factors. However, there is scarce evidence on prediction models incorporating dietary factors to estimate the risk of HU. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model to predict the risk of HU in Chinese adults based on dietary information. DESIGN: Our study was based on a cross-sectional survey, which recruited 1,488 community residents aged 18 to 60 years in Beijing from October 2010 to January 2011. The eligible participants were randomly divided into a training set (n 1 = 992) and a validation set (n 2 = 496) in the ratio of 2:1. We developed the prediction model in three stages. We first used a logistic regression model (LRM) based on the training set to select a set of dietary risk factors which were related to the risk of HU. Artificial neural network (ANN) was then used to construct the prediction model using the training set. Finally, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to assess the accuracy of the prediction model using training and validation sets. RESULTS: In the training set, the mean age of participants with and without HU was 39.3 (standard deviation [SD]: 9.65) and 38.2 (SD: 9.38) years, respectively. Patients with HU consisted of 101 males (77.7%) and 29 females (22.3%). The LRM found that food frequency (vegetables [odds ratio (OR) = 0.73], meat [0.72], eggs [0.80], plant oil [0.78], tea [0.51], eating habits (breakfast [OR = 1.28]), and the salty cooking style (OR = 1.33) were associated with risk of HU. In the ANN analysis, we selected a three-layer back propagation neural network (BPNN) model with 14, 3, and 1 neuron in the input, hidden, and output layers, respectively, as the best prediction model. The areas under the ROC of the training and validation sets were 0.827 and 0.814, respectively. HU would occur when the incidence probability is greater than 0.128. The indicators of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and Yuden Index suggested that the ANN model in our study is successful and valuable. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that the ANN model could be used to predict the risk of HU in Chinese adults. Further prospective studies are needed to improve the accuracy and to generalize the use of model.
BACKGROUND: Risk of hyperuricemia (HU) has been shown to be strongly associated with dietary factors. However, there is scarce evidence on prediction models incorporating dietary factors to estimate the risk of HU. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model to predict the risk of HU in Chinese adults based on dietary information. DESIGN: Our study was based on a cross-sectional survey, which recruited 1,488 community residents aged 18 to 60 years in Beijing from October 2010 to January 2011. The eligible participants were randomly divided into a training set (n 1 = 992) and a validation set (n 2 = 496) in the ratio of 2:1. We developed the prediction model in three stages. We first used a logistic regression model (LRM) based on the training set to select a set of dietary risk factors which were related to the risk of HU. Artificial neural network (ANN) was then used to construct the prediction model using the training set. Finally, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to assess the accuracy of the prediction model using training and validation sets. RESULTS: In the training set, the mean age of participants with and without HU was 39.3 (standard deviation [SD]: 9.65) and 38.2 (SD: 9.38) years, respectively. Patients with HU consisted of 101 males (77.7%) and 29 females (22.3%). The LRM found that food frequency (vegetables [odds ratio (OR) = 0.73], meat [0.72], eggs [0.80], plant oil [0.78], tea [0.51], eating habits (breakfast [OR = 1.28]), and the salty cooking style (OR = 1.33) were associated with risk of HU. In the ANN analysis, we selected a three-layer back propagation neural network (BPNN) model with 14, 3, and 1 neuron in the input, hidden, and output layers, respectively, as the best prediction model. The areas under the ROC of the training and validation sets were 0.827 and 0.814, respectively. HU would occur when the incidence probability is greater than 0.128. The indicators of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and Yuden Index suggested that the ANN model in our study is successful and valuable. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that the ANN model could be used to predict the risk of HU in Chinese adults. Further prospective studies are needed to improve the accuracy and to generalize the use of model.