Yong Yang1, Hong Xue2, Shiyong Liu3, Youfa Wang4. 1. School of Public Health, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, 38152. 2. Department of Health Behavior and Policy, School of Medicine, Virginia Commonwealth University. 3. Research Institute of Economics and Management, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, #55 Guanghuacun Street, Chengdu, Sichuan, China. 4. Department of Nutrition and Health Sciences, College of Health, Ball State University, Muncie, IN 47306.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Economic growth and urbanization may contribute to the decline of active travel to school (ATS). We aim to explain the change of ATS in China between 1997 and 2011 and to predict the prevalence of ATS in China within the next 30 years using various scenario. METHODS: We developed a system dynamics model to study ATS and the model assumes the prevalence of ATS is determined by the dynamic interaction of four exogenous and eight endogenous variables. RESULTS: The simulated prevalence of ATS is roughly consistent with empirical data. Economic development and urban sprawl are more influential than urban design and crime in terms of ATS. Under a relatively reasonable scenario, the prevalence of ATS is projected to decrease from 73% in 2011 to 65% in 2014, and the prevalence of childhood overweight & obesity is projected to increase from 24% in 2011 to 34% in 2041. With the maintaining of economic development grow, to control urban sprawl is the most effective measure to promote ATS and decrease childhood obesity. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the model enabled us to conduct experiments to test the possible effects of changing one or more factors taking into account their dynamic interrelationship, and our study may provide implications for policy intervention.
BACKGROUND: Economic growth and urbanization may contribute to the decline of active travel to school (ATS). We aim to explain the change of ATS in China between 1997 and 2011 and to predict the prevalence of ATS in China within the next 30 years using various scenario. METHODS: We developed a system dynamics model to study ATS and the model assumes the prevalence of ATS is determined by the dynamic interaction of four exogenous and eight endogenous variables. RESULTS: The simulated prevalence of ATS is roughly consistent with empirical data. Economic development and urban sprawl are more influential than urban design and crime in terms of ATS. Under a relatively reasonable scenario, the prevalence of ATS is projected to decrease from 73% in 2011 to 65% in 2014, and the prevalence of childhood overweight & obesity is projected to increase from 24% in 2011 to 34% in 2041. With the maintaining of economic development grow, to control urban sprawl is the most effective measure to promote ATS and decrease childhood obesity. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the model enabled us to conduct experiments to test the possible effects of changing one or more factors taking into account their dynamic interrelationship, and our study may provide implications for policy intervention.
Entities:
Keywords:
Active travel to school (ATS); China; children; economic growth; urbanization
Authors: Dorota Kleszczewska; Joanna Mazur; Jens Bucksch; Anna Dzielska; Catherina Brindley; Agnieszka Michalska Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2020-11-24 Impact factor: 3.390
Authors: Ellen Haug; Otto Robert Frans Smith; Jens Bucksch; Catherina Brindley; Jan Pavelka; Zdenek Hamrik; Joanna Inchley; Chris Roberts; Frida Kathrine Sofie Mathisen; Dagmar Sigmundová Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2021-02-22 Impact factor: 4.614