| Literature DB >> 31961379 |
Atheendar Venkataramani1,2, Sebastian Daza3,4, Ezekiel Emanuel1.
Abstract
Importance: Despite substantial research, the drivers of the widening gap in life expectancy between rich and poor individuals in the United States-known as the longevity gap-remain unknown. The hypothesis of this study is that social mobility may play an important role in explaining the longevity gap. Objective: To assess whether social mobility is associated with income-related differences in life expectancy in the United States. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional, ecological study used data from 1559 counties in the United States to assess the association of social mobility with average life expectancy at age 40 years by sex and income quartile among adult men and women over the period of January 2000 through December 2014. Bayesian generalized linear multilevel regression models were used to estimate the association, with adjustment for a range of socioeconomic, demographic, and health care system characteristics. Exposures: County-level social mobility, here operationalized as the association of the income rank of individuals born during the period of January 1980 through December 1982 (based on tax record data, averaged over the period January 2010 through December 2012) with the income ranks of their parents (averaged over the period January 1996 through December 2000) using the location where the parent first claimed the child as a dependent at age 15 years to identify counties. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was life expectancy at age 40 years by sex and income quartile.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2020 PMID: 31961379 PMCID: PMC6990844 DOI: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2019.6532
Source DB: PubMed Journal: JAMA Intern Med ISSN: 2168-6106 Impact factor: 21.873
Characteristics of Study Counties
| Characteristic | Mean (SD) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Full Sample (N = 1559) | Social Mobility, Quartile | ||
| Lowest (n = 719) | Highest (n = 718) | ||
| Social mobility (relative income mobility, inverted) | −0.27 (0.07) | −0.36 (0.03) | −0.18 (0.03) |
| Gini coefficient (for 2000) | 0.40 (0.08) | 0.45 (0.07) | 0.38 (0.09) |
| Average household income (for 2000), $ | 34 855 (7578) | 31 504 (5071) | 38 072 (9300) |
| Population size (for 2000) | 168 543 (399 949) | 130 832 (324 502) | 234 028 (608 657) |
| Black (for 2000), % | 9.4 (13.1) | 23.3 (16.3) | 2.8 (6.3) |
| Hispanic (for 2000), % | 6.5 (11.5) | 3.7 (6.0) | 10.1 (16.7) |
| Income segregation (for 2000) | 0.04 (0.03) | 0.04 (0.03) | 0.05 (0.03) |
| Unemployed (for 2000), % | 5.0 (1.6) | 5.5 (1.5) | 5.0 (2.1) |
| Uninsured (for 2010), % | 17.2 (5.2) | 19.0 (3.8) | 15.6 (5.9) |
| Medicare expenses per capita (for 2010), $ | 9357 (1422) | 9947 (1254) | 8524 (1415) |
Social mobility, ie, the relative mobility measure, was multiplied by −1 so that larger values reflect greater mobility. All data were obtained from the Health Inequality Project database.
Figure. Unadjusted Estimates of the Association of Life Expectancy at Age 40 Years With Social Mobility by Income Quartile and Sex
Estimates of the association of life expectancy at age 40 years with the social mobility measure obtained from separate nonparametric, local polynomial regression models estimated for women (A) and men (B) in the highest and lowest income quartiles. Each dot represents a county-income quartile observation, and the lines represent the fitted unadjusted, nonparametric association. Social mobility refers to the relative income mobility measure, which represents the association of a child’s income rank in his or her birth cohort’s income distribution as an adult with his or her parents’ income rank in their income distribution. This measure was multiplied by −1 so that higher values would reflect greater social mobility. A total of 1559 counties were included for all models.
Adjusted Estimates of the Association of Life Expectancy at Age 40 Years With Social Mobility by Income Quartile and Sex
| Income Quartile | Adjusted Estimate (95% CrI) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Women | Men | |||
| Base Model | Additional Covariates | Base Model | Additional Covariates | |
| 1 (Poorest) | 0.34 (0.26 to 0.41) | 0.29 (0.21 to 0.38) | 0.47 (0.40 to 0.55) | 0.38 (0.29 to 0.47) |
| 2 | 0.24 (0.16 to 0.31) | 0.12 (0.03 to 0.21) | 0.37 (0.29 to 0.45) | 0.23 (0.14 to 0.32) |
| 3 | 0.13 (0.05 to 0.22) | −0.01 (−0.11 to 0.09) | 0.30 (0.21 to 0.38) | 0.13 (0.04 to 0.22) |
| 4 (Richest) | 0.22 (0.12 to 0.32) | 0.08 (−0.05 to 0.20) | 0.18 (0.07 to 0.28) | 0.10 (−0.02 to 0.22) |
Abbreviation: CrI, credible interval.
Adjusted estimates were derived from Bayesian general linear multilevel models by sex and income quartile. Estimates reflect standardized coefficients, ie, the change in life expectancy at age 40 years associated with a 1-SD increase in the social mobility measure. Full estimates are provided in eTable 1 in the Supplement. All models include state-specific random effects to allow for the association of outcomes across counties within states. A total of 1559 counties were included for all models.
Base model regressions adjust for logged county-level average household income, z score of Gini coefficient, and logged total population size.
Additional covariate regressions adjust for logged county-level average household income, z score of Gini coefficient, logged total population size, logged percentage of black individuals, logged percentage of Hispanic individuals, logged unemployment rate, z score of percentage of uninsured individuals, and z score of percentage of Medicare expenditures per capita.
Estimates of the Association of Life Expectancy at Age 40 Years With Social Mobility by Income Quartile and Sex, Adjusted for Area-Level Education
| Income Quartile | Adjusted Estimate (95% CrI) | |
|---|---|---|
| Women | Men | |
| 1 (Poorest) | 0.15 (0.05 to 0.25) | 0.15 (0.07 to 0.24) |
| 2 | 0.05 (−0.04 to 0.15) | 0.11 (0.02 to 0.19) |
| 3 | −0.08 (−0.19 to 0.03) | 0.02 (−0.07 to 0.11) |
| 4 (Richest) | 0 (−0.14 to 0.14) | −0.02 (−0.15 to 0.12) |
Abbreviation: CrI, credible interval.
Models are identical to those presented in Table 2 in the Additional Covariates columns but are additionally adjusted for the county-level share of college graduates. Estimates reflect standardized coefficients, ie, the change in life expectancy at age 40 years associated with a 1-SD increase in the social mobility measure. A total of 1559 counties were included for all models.
Predicted Changes in Gaps in Life Expectancy at Age 40 Years Between Richest and Poorest Income Quartiles Associated With Counties Achieving the Highest Level of Social Mobility
| Sex | Actual Gap, y | Base Model, Estimate (95% CrI), y | Additional Covariates, Estimate (95% CrI), y | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predicted Gap | Difference (Actual − Predicted Gap) | Predicted Gap | Difference (Actual − Predicted Gap) | ||
| Women | 5.5 | 4.3 (3.5-5.1) | 1.2 (0.6-1.9) | 4.4 (3.3-5.6) | 1.1 (0.5-1.6) |
| Men | 8.5 | 6.8 (6.0-7.8) | 1.7 (0.8-2.6) | 7.1 (5.6-8.5) | 1.4 (0.7-2.1) |
Abbreviation: CrI, credible interval.