| Literature DB >> 31943509 |
Huixun Jia1, Qingguo Li2,3, Jing Yuan4, Xiaodong Sun1, Zhenyu Wu5.
Abstract
PURPOSE: This study aimed to profile the characteristics of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) with a second primary malignancy (SPM) and to identify patients with CRC at high risk of developing SPMs.Entities:
Keywords: Colorectal cancer; Competing-risk model; Nomogram; SEER; Second primary malignancy
Mesh:
Year: 2020 PMID: 31943509 PMCID: PMC7160402 DOI: 10.1634/theoncologist.2019-0266
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Oncologist ISSN: 1083-7159
Comparisons of characteristics between patients with colorectal cancer with only one primary malignancy and those with a second primary malignancy
| Variables | Overall, | OOPM cohort, | SPM cohort, |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enrolled patients with CRC | 179,884 | 161,599 (89.8) | 18,285 (10.2) | |
| Age at initial diagnosis, years | <.001 | |||
| <50 | 24,556 (13.7) | 23,265 (14.4) | 1,291 (7.1) | |
| 50–64 | 67,094 (37.2) | 60,845 (37.7) | 6,249 (34.2) | |
| 65–79 | 88,234 (49.1) | 77,489 (47.9) | 10,745 (58.7) | |
| Race | <.001 | |||
| Black | 21,390 (11.9) | 19,336 (12.0) | 2,054 (11.2) | |
| White | 142,365 (79.1) | 127,522 (78.9) | 14,843 (81.2) | |
| Other | 16,129 (9.0) | 14,741 (9.1) | 1,388 (7.6) | |
| Sex | <.001 | |||
| Female | 83,742 (46.6) | 76,156 (47.1) | 7,586 (41.5) | |
| Male | 96,142 (53.4) | 85,443 (52.9) | 10,699 (58.5) | |
| Initial diagnosed site | <.001 | |||
| Colon | 129,511 (72.0) | 115,858 (71.7) | 13,653 (74.7) | |
| Rectum | 50,373 (28.0) | 45,741 (28.3) | 4,632 (25.3) | |
| Tumor size, cm | <.001 | |||
| 0–3 | 40,967 (22.8) | 36,177 (22.4) | 4,790 (26.2) | |
| 3–5 | 65,749 (36.5) | 59,096 (36.5) | 6,653 (36.4) | |
| 5–10 | 65,938 (36.7) | 59,732 (37.0) | 6,206 (33.9) | |
| >10 | 7,230 (4.0) | 6,594 (4.1) | 636 (3.5) | |
| Extent of disease | <.001 | |||
| Localized | 66,355 (36.9) | 57,632 (35.7) | 8,723 (47.7) | |
| Regional | 81,372 (45.2) | 72,858 (45.1) | 8,514 (46.6) | |
| Distant | 32,157 (17.9) | 31,109 (19.2) | 1,048 (5.7) | |
| Lymph nodes examined | <.001 | |||
| <12 | 77,138 (42.9) | 68,848 (42.6) | 8,290 (45.4) | |
| ≥12 | 102,570 (57.1) | 92,590 (57.4) | 9,980 (54.6) | |
| Tumor grade | <.001 | |||
| I | 15,583 (8.7) | 13,765 (8.5) | 1,818 (9.9) | |
| II | 127,676 (71.0) | 114,307 (70.7) | 13,369 (73.1) | |
| III | 36,625 (20.3) | 33,527 (20.8) | 3,098 (17.0) | |
| Radiation | <.001 | |||
| No | 155,211 (86.3) | 139,112 (86.1) | 16,099 (88.0) | |
| Yes | 24,673 (13.7) | 22,487 (13.9) | 2,186 (12.0) | |
| Surgery | <.001 | |||
| No surgery | 5,162 (2.9) | 4,980 (3.1) | 182 (1.0) | |
| Local/partial resection | 161,331 (89.7) | 144,436 (89.4) | 16,895 (92.4) | |
| Total resection | 13,391 (7.4) | 12,183 (7.5) | 1,208 (6.6) | |
| Length of follow‐up, years | <.001 | |||
| 5–10 | 90,545 (50.3) | 82,779 (51.2) | 7,766 (42.5) | |
| 10–15 | 75,003 (41.7) | 66,299 (41.1) | 8,704 (47.6) | |
| 15–18 | 14,336 (8.0) | 12,521 (7.7) | 1,815 (9.9) | |
| Status | <.001 | |||
| Alive | 86,327 (48.0) | 78,130 (48.3) | 8,197 (44.8) | |
| Dead | 93,557 (52.0) | 83,469 (51.7) | 10,088 (55.2) | |
| Cause of death | <.001 | |||
| First primary cancer | 60,448 (64.6) | 56,922 (68.2) | 3,526 (34.9) | |
| Multiple malignancies | 4,111 (4.4) | 0 (0.0) | 4,111 (40.7) | |
| Noncancer cause | 27,453 (29.3) | 25,109 (30.1) | 2,344 (23.3) | |
| Unknown | 1,545 (1.7) | 1,438 (1.7) | 107 (1.1) |
Abbreviations: CRC, colorectal cancer; OOPM, only one primary malignancy; SPM, secondary primary malignancy.
Figure 1Distribution of causes of death in the two study cohorts and overall.Abbreviations: OOPM, only one primary malignancy; SPM, secondary primary malignancy.
Figure 2Estimates of overall survival and overall cumulative incidence of developing a second malignancy. (A): Estimates of overall survival for patients with colorectal cancer with only one primary malignancy; for patients with second primary malignancies from their initial diagnosis and from their second diagnosis. (B): Estimates of overall cumulative incidence of developing a second malignancy, taking death as a competing event.Abbreviations: OOPM, only one primary malignancy; SPM, secondary primary malignancy.
Significant risk factors associated with the development of a second primary malignancy, estimated by the Fine and Gray subdistribution hazards model
| Factors | HR (95% CI) | χ2 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Age at initial diagnosis | |||
| <50 | 1 | ||
| 50–64 | 1.68 (1.58–1.78) | 16.91 | <.001 |
| 65–79 | 2.12 (2.00–2.24) | 25.32 | <.001 |
| Race | |||
| White | 1 | ||
| Black | 1.01 (0.97–1.06) | 0.54 | .587 |
| Other | 0.88 (0.83 –0.93) | −4.63 | <.001 |
| Sex | |||
| Female | 1 | ||
| Male | 1.28 (1.24–1.32) | 16.39 | <.001 |
| Initial diagnosed site | |||
| Rectum | 1 | ||
| Colon | 1.15 (1.11–1.19) | 7.63 | <.001 |
| Extent of disease | |||
| Distant | 1 | ||
| Regional | 3.11 (2.91–3.31) | 34.36 | <.001 |
| Localized | 3.84 (3.59–4.09) | 40.42 | <.001 |
| Tumor grade | |||
| III | 1 | ||
| II | 1.08 (1.04–1.13) | 3.89 | .001 |
| I | 1.10 (1.03–1.16) | 3.05 | .002 |
| Surgery | |||
| No surgery | 1 | ||
| Local or partial resection | 1.82 (1.57–2.11) | 7.94 | <.001 |
| Total resection | 1.74 (1.49–2.04) | 6.96 | <.001 |
Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio.
Figure 3Nomogram for predicting 3‐year, 5‐year, and 10‐year probabilities of developing a second primary malignancy in patients with colorectal cancer.
Figure 4Decision curve analysis for the competing‐risk nomogram. The y‐axis represents the net benefit. The blue solid line represents the competing‐risk nomogram. The golden dashed line represents the hypothesis that all patients had secondary primary malignancies (SPMs). The gray solid line represents the hypothesis that no patients had an SPM. The x‐axis represents the threshold probability. The decision curve showed that if the threshold probability was between 1% and 17%, then using the competing‐risk nomogram to predict the probability of developing SPMs added more benefit than treating either all or no patients would have an SPM.