A series of unfortunate events: characterizing the contingent nature of physiological extremes using long-term environmental records.

Accelerating shifts in global climate have focused the attention of ecologists and physiologists on extreme environmental events. However, the dynamic process of physiological acclimatization complicates study of these events' consequences. Depending on the range of plasticity and the amplitude and speed of environmental variation, physiology can be either in tune with the surroundings or dangerously out of synch. We implement a modified quantitative approach to identifying extreme events in environmental records, proposing that organisms are stressed by deviations of the environment from the current level of acclimatization, rather than by the environment's absolute state. This approach facilitates an unambiguous null model for the consequences of environmental variation, identifying a unique subset of events as 'extremes'. Specifically, it allows one to examine how both the temporal extent (the acclimatization window) and type of an environmental signal affect the magnitude and timing of extreme environmental events. For example, if physiology responds to the moving average of past conditions, a longer acclimatization window generally results in greater imposed stress. If instead physiology responds to historical maxima, longer acclimatization windows reduce imposed stress, albeit perhaps at greater constitutive cost. This approach should be further informed and tested with empirical experiments addressing the history-dependent nature of acclimatization.