Literature DB >> 31810030

African swine fever emerging in China: Distribution characteristics and high-risk areas.

Jun Ma1, Hao Chen1, Xiang Gao1, Jianhua Xiao1, Hongbin Wang2.   

Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious disease that currently has no specific treatment or vaccine. In August 2018, ASF entered China causing great economic losses. In this study, data on 98 ASF cases in China from August 1st, 2018 to January 1st, 2019 were collected and analyzed. Spatio-temporal cluster and directional distribution analysis were performed to characterize the distribution of ASF cases. High risk areas for ASF outbreaks in China were identified using the presence-only maximum entropy (MaxEnt) ecological niche model. The distribution of ASF cases from Aug 1st, 2018 to Jan 1st, 2019 in China showed a significant directional trend (northeast-southwest) (P < 0.05) and a spatio-temporal cluster was detected in northeast China. A risk map for ASF infection was developed and pig density was identified as the most important predictor for ASF outbreak. This work presents ASF risk zones in China and may provide useful information for the development of effective strategies for the prevention and control of ASF outbreaks.
Copyright © 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Entities:  

Keywords:  African swine fever; Distribution characteristics; Risk areas

Year:  2019        PMID： 31810030     DOI： 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2019.104861

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Prev Vet Med        ISSN： 0167-5877            Impact factor:   2.670


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