Gunhild Hagen1, Jon Magnussen2, Grethe Tell3, Tone Omsland4. 1. Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway. Electronic address: gunhild.hagen@fhi.no. 2. Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway. 3. Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway. 4. Department of Community Medicine and Global Health, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The incidence rate of hip fractures seems to be declining in many western countries. However, due to the ageing of the population, the number of fractures may still be on the rise. No papers so far have quantified the future burden of hip fractures in terms of both health loss (as measured in disability adjusted life years DALY) and costs. The purpose of this paper is to assess the future health and economic burden of hip fractures. METHODS: We collected population projections from Statistics Norway up until the year 2040. The medium projection was used for the base case analysis. Fracture rates for 2008 were estimated based on information from the Norwegian Epidemiologic Osteoporosis Studies (NOREPOS) hip fracture database (NORHip), which includes information about all hip fractures in Norway. Future fracture rate was assumed to decline by 0.7% per year in the base case. We used the same assumptions as the global burden of disease project on years of remaining life and disability weights. Cost of hip fracture was based on the published literature. In sensitivity analyses, we assessed the impact of changing underlying assumptions on demographic change, development in hip fracture rate, assumed life expectancy and choice of disability weights. RESULTS: Assuming a medium population growth and a continued decline in fracture rate, our estimates indicate that health lost to hip fractures will approximately double, from 32,850 DALYs in 2020 to 60,555 in 2040. Over the same period, costs are estimated to increase by 65%. Sensitivity analyses indicate that estimates are highly sensitive to assumptions on both population growth, fracture rate development, disability weights and assumed life expectancy. CONCLUSION: The burden of hip fractures in terms of DALYs lost and cost incurred is likely to increase even if the fracture rate continues to decline.
BACKGROUND: The incidence rate of hip fractures seems to be declining in many western countries. However, due to the ageing of the population, the number of fractures may still be on the rise. No papers so far have quantified the future burden of hip fractures in terms of both health loss (as measured in disability adjusted life years DALY) and costs. The purpose of this paper is to assess the future health and economic burden of hip fractures. METHODS: We collected population projections from Statistics Norway up until the year 2040. The medium projection was used for the base case analysis. Fracture rates for 2008 were estimated based on information from the Norwegian Epidemiologic Osteoporosis Studies (NOREPOS) hip fracture database (NORHip), which includes information about all hip fractures in Norway. Future fracture rate was assumed to decline by 0.7% per year in the base case. We used the same assumptions as the global burden of disease project on years of remaining life and disability weights. Cost of hip fracture was based on the published literature. In sensitivity analyses, we assessed the impact of changing underlying assumptions on demographic change, development in hip fracture rate, assumed life expectancy and choice of disability weights. RESULTS: Assuming a medium population growth and a continued decline in fracture rate, our estimates indicate that health lost to hip fractures will approximately double, from 32,850 DALYs in 2020 to 60,555 in 2040. Over the same period, costs are estimated to increase by 65%. Sensitivity analyses indicate that estimates are highly sensitive to assumptions on both population growth, fracture rate development, disability weights and assumed life expectancy. CONCLUSION: The burden of hip fractures in terms of DALYs lost and cost incurred is likely to increase even if the fracture rate continues to decline.
Authors: Johannes Gleich; Daniel Pfeufer; Alexander M Keppler; Stefan Mehaffey; Julian Fürmetz; Wolfgang Böcker; Christian Kammerlander; Carl Neuerburg Journal: Arch Orthop Trauma Surg Date: 2021-01-23 Impact factor: 2.928
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Authors: Periklis Charalampous; Elena Pallari; Vanessa Gorasso; Elena von der Lippe; Brecht Devleesschauwer; Sara M Pires; Dietrich Plass; Jane Idavain; Che Henry Ngwa; Isabel Noguer; Alicia Padron-Monedero; Rodrigo Sarmiento; Marek Majdan; Balázs Ádám; Ala'a AlKerwi; Seila Cilovic-Lagarija; Benjamin Clarsen; Barbara Corso; Sarah Cuschieri; Keren Dopelt; Mary Economou; Florian Fischer; Alberto Freitas; Juan Manuel García-González; Federica Gazzelloni; Artemis Gkitakou; Hakan Gulmez; Paul Hynds; Gaetano Isola; Lea S Jakobsen; Zubair Kabir; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Ann Kristin Knudsen; Naime Meriç Konar; Carina Ladeira; Brian Lassen; Aaron Liew; Marjeta Majer; Enkeleint A Mechili; Alibek Mereke; Lorenzo Monasta; Stefania Mondello; Joana Nazaré Morgado; Evangelia Nena; Edmond S W Ng; Vikram Niranjan; Iskra Alexandra Nola; Rónán O'Caoimh; Panagiotis Petrou; Vera Pinheiro; Miguel Reina Ortiz; Silvia Riva; Hanen Samouda; João Vasco Santos; Cornelia Melinda Adi Santoso; Milena Santric Milicevic; Dimitrios Skempes; Ana Catarina Sousa; Niko Speybroeck; Fimka Tozija; Brigid Unim; Hilal Bektaş Uysal; Fabrizio Giovanni Vaccaro; Orsolya Varga; Milena Vasic; Francesco Saverio Violante; Grant M A Wyper; Suzanne Polinder; Juanita A Haagsma Journal: BMC Public Health Date: 2022-08-17 Impact factor: 4.135