| Literature DB >> 31641377 |
Xiao Wu1, Guoqing Liu2, Wu Zhou3, Aihua Ou4, Xian Liu2, Yuhan Wang1, Sifan Zhou1, Wenting Luo1, Bo Liu2.
Abstract
Previous studies have identified various factors associated with the outcomes of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) but considered only 1 or 2 predictive factors. The present study aimed to use outcome-related factors derived from biochemical, imaging and clinical data to establish a logistic regression model that can predict the outcome of patients with AIS following endovascular treatment (EVT). The data of 118 patients with anterior circulation AIS (ACAIS) who underwent EVT between October 2014 and August 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into 2 groups based on the modified Rankin Scale score at three months after surgery, where 0-2 points were considered to indicate a favorable outcome and 3-6 points were considered a poor outcome. Non-conditional logistic stepwise regression was used to identify independent variables that were significantly associated with patient outcome, which were subsequently used to establish a predictive statistical model, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to show the performance of statistical model and analyze the specific association between each factor and outcome. Among the 118 patients, 47 (39.83%) exhibited a good and 71 (60.17%) exhibited a poor outcome. Multivariate analysis revealed that the predictive model was statistically significant (χ2=78.92; P<0.001), and that the predictive accuracy of the model was 83.1%, which was higher compared with that obtained using only a single factor. ROC curve analysis shows the area under curve of the statistical model was 0.823, the analysis of diagnostic threshold for prognostic factors indicated that age, diffusion-weighted imaging lesion volume, glucose on admission, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score on admission and hypersensitive C-reactive protein were valuable predictive factors for the outcome of EVT (P<0.05). In conclusion, a predictive model based on non-conditional logistic stepwise regression analysis was able to predict the outcome of EVT for patients with ACAIS. Copyright: © Wu et al.Entities:
Keywords: acute ischemic stroke; biochemical indicators; clinical factors; endovascular treatment; imaging characteristics; infarct lesion volume; outcome prediction
Year: 2019 PMID: 31641377 PMCID: PMC6796376 DOI: 10.3892/etm.2019.8054
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Exp Ther Med ISSN: 1792-0981 Impact factor: 2.447
Demographic and baseline data of the patients (categorical variables).
| Item | Poor outcome[ | Favorable outcome[ | Sum | χ2 | P-value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sex | |||||
| Males | 37 (52.1) | 35 (74.5) | 72 | 5.94 | 0.02 |
| Females | 34 (47.9) | 12 (25.5) | 46 | ||
| Smoking | |||||
| Yes | 20 (28.2) | 19 (40.4) | 39 | 1.92 | 0.23 |
| No | 51 (71.8) | 28 (59.6) | 79 | ||
| Drinking | |||||
| Yes | 7 (9.9) | 9 (19.1) | 16 | 2.08 | 0.18 |
| No | 64 (90.1) | 38 (80.9) | 102 | ||
| Hypertension | |||||
| Yes | 45 (63.4) | 29 (61.7) | 74 | 0.03 | 1.00 |
| No | 26 (36.6) | 18 (38.3) | 44 | ||
| Diabetes | |||||
| Yes | 18 (25.4) | 7 (14.9) | 25 | 1.85 | 0.25 |
| No | 53 (74.6) | 40 (85.1) | 93 |
The mRS score at 3 months after EVT was used as the efficacy criterion, in which 0–2 was considered as a favorable outcome and 3–6 was considered as poor outcome.
Patient data in association with the outcome.
| Poor outcome (n=71)[ | Favorable outcome (n=47)[ | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Item | Mean (SD) | Median (P75-P25) | Mean (SD) | Median (P75-P25) | t/Z | P-value |
| Age (years) | 70.5 (10.2) | 72 (14) | 63.49 (11.21) | 62.0 (16.0) | 3.53 | <0.01 |
| DWI lesion volume (mm3) | 30,914.6 (41489.7) | 12,921.9 (34015.8) | 7,724.8 (7606.2) | 5,840.3 (6852.0) | 3.60 | <0.01[ |
| AG (mmol/l) | 9.6 (4.6) | 8.1 (3.2) | 7.1 (1.9) | 6.6 (2.3) | 3.93 | <0.01[ |
| NIHSS score | 15.0 (5.8) | 14.0 (7.0) | 9.4 (3.4) | 9.0 (5.0) | 5.40 | <0.01[ |
| ORT (min) | 376.4 (232.2) | 300.0 (225.0) | 301.4 (141.4) | 270.0 (177.0) | 1.61 | 0.11[ |
| hs-CRP (mg/l) | 52.0 (36.3) | 45.2 (32.0) | 39.0 (25.8) | 33.1 (33.5) | 2.13 | 0.03[ |
| Operation time (min) | 142.1 (56.4) | 135 (80) | 133.6 (56.3) | 130 (46) | 0.82 | 0.41[ |
| SBP (mmHg) | 152.4 (25.1) | 152 (34) | 153.7 (24.9) | 149.0 (31.0) | 0.07 | 0.94[ |
| DBP (mmHg) | 84.9 (15.0) | 81 (25) | 88.8 (15.7) | 85 (21) | 1.33 | 0.18[ |
| HDL (mmol/l) | 1.2 (0.3) | 1.1 (0.2) | 1.1 (0.3) | 1.1 (0.3) | 1.04 | 0.30[ |
| LDL (mmol/l) | 2.9 (1.0) | 2.8 (1.2) | 2.9 (0.7) | 2.9 (1.1) | 0.26 | 0.79[ |
| TC (mmol/l) | 4.6 (1.1) | 4.4 (1.5) | 4.3 (0.8) | 4.2 (1.1) | 1.31 | 0.19 |
The mRS score at 3 months after EVT was used as the efficacy criterion, which 0–2 was considered as a favorable outcome and 3–6 was considered as poor outcome (16,17).
Rank-Sum test. DWI, diffusion-weighted imaging; AG, glucose on admission; NIHSS, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale; ORT, onset-to-reperfusion time; hs-CRP, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein; SBP, systolic blood pressure; DBP, diastolic blood pressure; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; LDL, low-density lipoprotein; TC, total cholesterol.
Figure 1.Manual delineation of the infarct lesion in a DWI map (B=1,000) by referring to the ADC map of the same cross section. (A) Outline of the DWI lesion. (B) ADC map corresponding to DWI slice. DWI, diffusion-weighted imaging; ADC, apparent diffusion coefficient.
Omnibus tests of model coefficients.
| Step 6 | χ2 | Degree of freedom | P-value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Step | 4.134 | 1 | 0.042 |
| Block | 78.916 | 6 | <0.001 |
| Model | 78.916 | 6 | <0.001 |
Classification Table.
| Predicted | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Groups | |||
| Observed | Favorable outcome | Poor outcome | Percentage correct |
| Step 6 | |||
| Groups | |||
| Favorable outcome | 37 | 10 | 78.7 |
| Poor outcome | 10 | 61 | 85.9 |
| Overall percentage | 83.1 | ||
The role of each factor for the prediction of AIS in the non-conditional logistic stepwise regression model[a].
| 95% EXP (β) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | β | S.E. | Wald | P-value | Exp (β) | Lower limit | Upper limit |
| Sex | 1.221 | 0.611 | 3.984 | 0.046 | 3.389 | 1.022 | 11.235 |
| Age | 0.090 | 0.031 | 8.537 | 0.003 | 1.094 | 1.030 | 1.163 |
| DWI lesion volume | <0.001 | 0.001 | 11.208 | 0.001 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| AG | 0.421 | 0.153 | 7.602 | 0.006 | 1.524 | 1.129 | 2.055 |
| NIHSS score | 0.193 | 0.072 | 7.108 | 0.008 | 1.213 | 1.052 | 1.397 |
| ORT | 0.004 | 0.002 | 4.548 | 0.033 | 1.004 | 1.000 | 1.007 |
In the statistical mode, the mRS score at 3 months after EVT was used as the dependent variable (Favorable outcome, Y=0; Poor outcome, Y=1). DWI, diffusion weighted imaging; AG, admission glucose; NIHSS, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale; ORT, onset-to-reperfusion time; β, regression coefficient; S.E., standard error; Exp (β), odds ratio; 95% EXP (β), 95% confidence interval of odds ratio.
Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis of statistical model for the outcome of patients with anterior circulation acute ischemic stroke[a].
| Asymptotic 95% CI | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUC | S.E. | P-value | Lower limit | Upper limit |
| 0.823 | 0.042 | <0.001 | 0.740 | 0.906 |
Null hypothesis: The classification cutoff value for each patient is 0.5. S.E., standard error.
Figure 2.Receiver operating characteristic curves of factors associated with outcome. DWI, diffusion-weighted imaging; AG, glucose on admission; NIHSS, National Institute of Health Stroke Scale score at admission; hs-CRP, hypersensitive C-reactive protein; ORT, onset-to-reperfusion time.
Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis of predictive factors for the outcome of patients with anterior circulation acute ischemic stroke.
| Asymptotic 95% CI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome measure | AUC | Cut-off value | P-value | Lower limit | Upper limit | Specificity (%) | Sensitivity (%) |
| Age | 0.677 | 68.5 | 0.001 | 0.578 | 0.776 | 63.4 | 61.7 |
| DWI lesion volume | 0.696 | 6494.5 | <0.001 | 0.603 | 0.790 | 70.4 | 61.7 |
| AG | 0.714 | 7.2 | <0.001 | 0.620 | 0.809 | 73.2 | 61.7 |
| NIHSS score | 0.794 | 11.5 | <0.001 | 0.713 | 0.874 | 76.1 | 70.2 |
| hs-CRP | 0.616 | 39.5 | 0.034 | 0.512 | 0.720 | 60.6 | 63.8 |
| ORT | 0.588 | 272.5 | 0.108 | 0.483 | 0.692 | 53.5 | 55.3 |
DWI, diffusion-weighted imaging; AG, glucose on admission; NIHSS, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale; hs-CRP, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein; ORT, onset-to-reperfusion time; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; LDL, low-density lipoprotein; TC, total cholesterol; SBP, systolic blood pressure; DBP, diastolic blood pressure; CI, confidence interval; AUC, Area Under the ROC Curve.