Shi Zhao1,2, Salihu S Musa2, Jiayi Meng3, Jing Qin1, Daihai He2. 1. School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. 2. Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. 3. School of Economics and Finance, Xi'an International Studies University, Xi'an, China.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Dengue remains a severe threat to public health in tropical and subtropical regions. In China, over 85% of domestic dengue cases are in the Guangdong province and there were 53 139 reported cases during 2008-2018. In Guangdong, the 2014 dengue outbreak was the largest in the last 20 y and it was probably triggered by a new strain imported from other regions. METHODS: We studied the long-term patterns of dengue infectivity in Guangdong from 2008-2018 and compared the infectivity estimates across different periods. RESULTS: We found that the annual epidemics approximately followed exponential growth during 2011-2014. The transmission rates were at a low level during 2008-2012, significantly increased 1.43-fold [1.22, 1.69] during 2013-2014 and then decreased back to a low level after 2015. By using the mosquito index and the likelihood-inference approach, we found that the new strain most likely invaded Guangdong in April 2014. CONCLUSIONS: The long-term changing dynamics of dengue infectivity are associated with the new dengue virus strain invasion and public health control programmes. The increase in infectiousness indicates the potential for dengue to go from being imported to becoming an endemic in Guangdong, China.
BACKGROUND: Dengue remains a severe threat to public health in tropical and subtropical regions. In China, over 85% of domestic dengue cases are in the Guangdong province and there were 53 139 reported cases during 2008-2018. In Guangdong, the 2014 dengue outbreak was the largest in the last 20 y and it was probably triggered by a new strain imported from other regions. METHODS: We studied the long-term patterns of dengue infectivity in Guangdong from 2008-2018 and compared the infectivity estimates across different periods. RESULTS: We found that the annual epidemics approximately followed exponential growth during 2011-2014. The transmission rates were at a low level during 2008-2012, significantly increased 1.43-fold [1.22, 1.69] during 2013-2014 and then decreased back to a low level after 2015. By using the mosquito index and the likelihood-inference approach, we found that the new strain most likely invaded Guangdong in April 2014. CONCLUSIONS: The long-term changing dynamics of dengue infectivity are associated with the new dengue virus strain invasion and public health control programmes. The increase in infectiousness indicates the potential for dengue to go from being imported to becoming an endemic in Guangdong, China.
Authors: Shi Zhao; Xiujuan Tang; Xue Liang; Marc K C Chong; Jinjun Ran; Salihu S Musa; Guangpu Yang; Peihua Cao; Kai Wang; Benny C Y Zee; Xin Wang; Daihai He; Maggie H Wang Journal: Infect Drug Resist Date: 2020-06-17 Impact factor: 4.003
Authors: Xiaobo Liu; Keke Liu; Yujuan Yue; Haixia Wu; Shu Yang; Yuhong Guo; Dongsheng Ren; Ning Zhao; Jun Yang; Qiyong Liu Journal: Front Public Health Date: 2021-01-18