Shi Zhao1,2, Xiujuan Tang3, Xue Liang4, Marc K C Chong1,2, Jinjun Ran5, Salihu S Musa6, Guangpu Yang7, Peihua Cao8, Kai Wang9, Benny C Y Zee1,2, Xin Wang3, Daihai He6, Maggie H Wang1,2. 1. Division of Biostatistics, JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China. 2. Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China. 3. Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China. 4. Department of Hematology, The 989th Hospital of the Joint Logistics Support Force of Chinese PLA, Luoyang 471031, People's Republic of China. 5. School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China. 6. Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China. 7. Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China. 8. Clinical Research Centre, Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China. 9. Department of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830011, People's Republic of China.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Measles, a highly contagious disease, still poses a huge burden worldwide. Lately, a trend of resurgence threatened the developed countries. A measles outbreak occurred in the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) between March and April 2019, which infected 29 airport staff. During the outbreak, multiple measures were taken including daily situation updates, setting up a public enquiry platform on March 23, and an emergent vaccination program targeting unprotected staff. The outbreak was put out promptly. The effectiveness of these measures was unclear. METHODS: We quantified the transmissibility of outbreak in HKIA by the effective reproduction number, R eff(t), and basic reproduction number, R 0(t). The reproduction number was modelled as a function of its determinants that were statistically examined, including lags in hospitalization, situation update, and level of public awareness. Then, we considered a hypothetical no-measure scenario when improvements in reporting and public enquiry were absent and calculated the number of infected airport staff. RESULTS: Our estimated average R 0 is 10.09 (95% CI: 1.73-36.50). We found that R 0(t) was positively associated with lags in hospitalization and situation update, while negatively associated with the level of public awareness. The average predicted basic reproduction number, r 0, was 14.67 (95% CI: 9.01-45.32) under the no-measure scenario, which increased the average R 0 by 77.57% (95% CI: 1.71-111.15). The total number of infected staff would be 179 (IQR: 90-339, 95% CI: 23-821), namely the measure induced 8.42-fold (95% CI: 0.21-42.21) reduction in the total number of infected staff. CONCLUSION: Timely reporting on outbreak situation and public awareness measured by the number of public enquiries helped to control the outbreak.
BACKGROUND: Measles, a highly contagious disease, still poses a huge burden worldwide. Lately, a trend of resurgence threatened the developed countries. A measles outbreak occurred in the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) between March and April 2019, which infected 29 airport staff. During the outbreak, multiple measures were taken including daily situation updates, setting up a public enquiry platform on March 23, and an emergent vaccination program targeting unprotected staff. The outbreak was put out promptly. The effectiveness of these measures was unclear. METHODS: We quantified the transmissibility of outbreak in HKIA by the effective reproduction number, R eff(t), and basic reproduction number, R 0(t). The reproduction number was modelled as a function of its determinants that were statistically examined, including lags in hospitalization, situation update, and level of public awareness. Then, we considered a hypothetical no-measure scenario when improvements in reporting and public enquiry were absent and calculated the number of infected airport staff. RESULTS: Our estimated average R 0 is 10.09 (95% CI: 1.73-36.50). We found that R 0(t) was positively associated with lags in hospitalization and situation update, while negatively associated with the level of public awareness. The average predicted basic reproduction number, r 0, was 14.67 (95% CI: 9.01-45.32) under the no-measure scenario, which increased the average R 0 by 77.57% (95% CI: 1.71-111.15). The total number of infected staff would be 179 (IQR: 90-339, 95% CI: 23-821), namely the measure induced 8.42-fold (95% CI: 0.21-42.21) reduction in the total number of infected staff. CONCLUSION: Timely reporting on outbreak situation and public awareness measured by the number of public enquiries helped to control the outbreak.
Authors: Vincent C C Cheng; Shuk-Ching Wong; Sally C Y Wong; Siddharth Sridhar; Jonathan H K Chen; Cyril C Y Yip; Derek L L Hung; Xin Li; Vivien W M Chuang; Owen T Y Tsang; Gibson K S Woo; Shuk-Kwan Chuang; Kwok-Yung Yuen Journal: Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol Date: 2019-10-07 Impact factor: 3.254
Authors: Anton Camacho; Malika Bouhenia; Reema Alyusfi; Abdulhakeem Alkohlani; Munna Abdulla Mohammed Naji; Xavier de Radiguès; Abdinasir M Abubakar; Abdulkareem Almoalmi; Caroline Seguin; Maria Jose Sagrado; Marc Poncin; Melissa McRae; Mohammed Musoke; Ankur Rakesh; Klaudia Porten; Christopher Haskew; Katherine E Atkins; Rosalind M Eggo; Andrew S Azman; Marije Broekhuijsen; Mehmet Akif Saatcioglu; Lorenzo Pezzoli; Marie-Laure Quilici; Abdul Rahman Al-Mesbahy; Nevio Zagaria; Francisco J Luquero Journal: Lancet Glob Health Date: 2018-05-03 Impact factor: 26.763