Jingjing Kang1, Matthew S Ning2, Han Feng3, Hongqi Li4, Houda Bahig5, Eric D Brooks2, James W Welsh2, Rui Ye6, Hongyu Miao3, Joe Y Chang7. 1. Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas; Department of Radiation Oncology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China. 2. Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas. 3. Department of Biostatistics and Data Science, School of Public Health, University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, Texas. 4. Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas; Department of Radiation Oncology, Airforce General Hospital PLA, Beijing, China. 5. Department of Radiation Oncology, Centre Hospitalier de l'Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada. 6. Experimental Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas; Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas. 7. Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas. Electronic address: jychang@mdanderson.org.
Abstract
PURPOSE: Our purpose was to develop predictive nomograms for overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and time-to-progression (TTP) at 5 years in patients with early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (ES-NSCLC) treated with stereotactic ablative radiation therapy (SABR). METHODS AND MATERIALS: The study cohort included 714 ES-NSCLC patients treated with SABR from 2004-2015 with median follow-up of 59 months, divided into training and testing sets (8:2), with the former used for nomogram development. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator were initially employed to screen for predictors of OS, PFS, and TTP, and identified predictors were subsequently applied toward Cox proportional hazards regression modeling. Significant predictors (P < .05) on multivariable regression were then used to develop nomograms, which were validated via evaluation of concordance indexes (C-index) and calibration plots. Finally, Kaplan-Meier method and Gray's test were employed to compare and confirm differences in outcomes among various groups and explore prognostic factors associated with local versus distant disease progression. RESULTS: Significant predictors of both OS and PFS at 5 years included age, sex, Charlson comorbidity index, diffusing capacity of carbon monoxide, systemic immune-inflammation index, and tumor size (P ≤ .01 for all). Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status predicted for OS as well (P = .01), and both tumor size (P < .01) and minimum biological equivalent dose to 95% of planning target volume (PTV D95 BED10; P < .01) were predictive of TTP. The C-indexes for the OS, PFS, and TTP nomograms were 0.73, 0.68, and 0.60 in the training data set and 0.72, 0.66, and 0.59 in the testing data set, respectively. Tumor size > 2.45 cm and PTV D95 BED10 < 113 Gy were significantly associated with both local and distant progression. CONCLUSIONS: These prognostic nomograms can accurately predict for OS, PFS, and TTP at 5 years after SABR for ES-NSCLC and may thus help identify high-risk patients who could benefit from additional systemic therapy. Published by Elsevier Inc.
PURPOSE: Our purpose was to develop predictive nomograms for overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and time-to-progression (TTP) at 5 years in patients with early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (ES-NSCLC) treated with stereotactic ablative radiation therapy (SABR). METHODS AND MATERIALS: The study cohort included 714 ES-NSCLCpatients treated with SABR from 2004-2015 with median follow-up of 59 months, divided into training and testing sets (8:2), with the former used for nomogram development. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator were initially employed to screen for predictors of OS, PFS, and TTP, and identified predictors were subsequently applied toward Cox proportional hazards regression modeling. Significant predictors (P < .05) on multivariable regression were then used to develop nomograms, which were validated via evaluation of concordance indexes (C-index) and calibration plots. Finally, Kaplan-Meier method and Gray's test were employed to compare and confirm differences in outcomes among various groups and explore prognostic factors associated with local versus distant disease progression. RESULTS: Significant predictors of both OS and PFS at 5 years included age, sex, Charlson comorbidity index, diffusing capacity of carbon monoxide, systemic immune-inflammation index, and tumor size (P ≤ .01 for all). Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status predicted for OS as well (P = .01), and both tumor size (P < .01) and minimum biological equivalent dose to 95% of planning target volume (PTV D95 BED10; P < .01) were predictive of TTP. The C-indexes for the OS, PFS, and TTP nomograms were 0.73, 0.68, and 0.60 in the training data set and 0.72, 0.66, and 0.59 in the testing data set, respectively. Tumor size > 2.45 cm and PTV D95 BED10 < 113 Gy were significantly associated with both local and distant progression. CONCLUSIONS: These prognostic nomograms can accurately predict for OS, PFS, and TTP at 5 years after SABR for ES-NSCLC and may thus help identify high-risk patients who could benefit from additional systemic therapy. Published by Elsevier Inc.
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