Jake Krige1,2, Richard T Spence3,4, Eduard Jonas3,5, Marius Hoogerboord4, James Ellsmere4. 1. Department of Surgery, J45 OMB, University of Cape Town Health Sciences Faculty, Anzio Road, Observatory, Cape Town, 7925, South Africa. jej.krige@uct.ac.za. 2. Surgical Gastroenterology and HPB Unit, Groote Schuur Hospital, Cape Town, South Africa. jej.krige@uct.ac.za. 3. Department of Surgery, J45 OMB, University of Cape Town Health Sciences Faculty, Anzio Road, Observatory, Cape Town, 7925, South Africa. 4. Department of Surgery, Dalhousie University, 1276 South Park Street, Halifax, NS, B3H 2Y9, Canada. 5. Surgical Gastroenterology and HPB Unit, Groote Schuur Hospital, Cape Town, South Africa.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: There currently is no consensus on how to accurately predict early rebleeding and death after a major variceal bleed. This study investigated the relative predictive performances of the original Child-Pugh (CP), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and a four-category recalibrated Child-Pugh (rCP). METHODS: This prospective study included all adult patients admitted to Groote Schuur Hospital with acute esophageal variceal bleeding secondary to alcoholic cirrhosis, between January 2000 and December 2017. CP and rCP grades and MELD score were calculated on admission, and the predictive ability in discriminating in-hospital rebleeding and death was compared by area under receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curves. RESULTS: During the study period, 403 consecutive adult patients were treated for bleeding esophageal varices of whom 225 were secondary to alcoholic cirrhosis. Twenty-four (10.6%) patients were CP grade A, 88 (39.1%) grade B and 113 (50.2%) grade C on hospital admission. MELD scores ranged from 6 to 40. Thirty-one (13.8%) patients rebleed, and 41 (18.2%) patients died. There was no difference in the discriminatory capacity of the CP (AUROC 0.59, 95% CI 0.50-0.670) and MELD (AUROC 0.62, 95% CI 0.51-0.73) to predict rebleeding (p = 0.72), or between the Child-Pugh (AUROC 0.75, 95% CI 0.71-0.81) and MELD (AUROC 0.71, 95% CI 0.62-0.80) to predict death (p = 0.35). The rCP classification (A-D) had a significantly improved discriminatory capacity (AUROC 0.83 95% CI 0.77-0.89) compared to the CP score (A-C) and MELD to predict death (p = 0.004). CONCLUSION: A recalibrated Child-Pugh score outperforms the original Child-Pugh grade and MELD score in predicting in-hospital death in patients with bleeding esophageal varices secondary to alcoholic cirrhosis.
BACKGROUND: There currently is no consensus on how to accurately predict early rebleeding and death after a major variceal bleed. This study investigated the relative predictive performances of the original Child-Pugh (CP), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and a four-category recalibrated Child-Pugh (rCP). METHODS: This prospective study included all adult patients admitted to Groote Schuur Hospital with acute esophageal variceal bleeding secondary to alcoholic cirrhosis, between January 2000 and December 2017. CP and rCP grades and MELD score were calculated on admission, and the predictive ability in discriminating in-hospital rebleeding and death was compared by area under receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curves. RESULTS: During the study period, 403 consecutive adult patients were treated for bleeding esophageal varices of whom 225 were secondary to alcoholic cirrhosis. Twenty-four (10.6%) patients were CP grade A, 88 (39.1%) grade B and 113 (50.2%) grade C on hospital admission. MELD scores ranged from 6 to 40. Thirty-one (13.8%) patients rebleed, and 41 (18.2%) patientsdied. There was no difference in the discriminatory capacity of the CP (AUROC 0.59, 95% CI 0.50-0.670) and MELD (AUROC 0.62, 95% CI 0.51-0.73) to predict rebleeding (p = 0.72), or between the Child-Pugh (AUROC 0.75, 95% CI 0.71-0.81) and MELD (AUROC 0.71, 95% CI 0.62-0.80) to predict death (p = 0.35). The rCP classification (A-D) had a significantly improved discriminatory capacity (AUROC 0.83 95% CI 0.77-0.89) compared to the CP score (A-C) and MELD to predict death (p = 0.004). CONCLUSION: A recalibrated Child-Pugh score outperforms the original Child-Pugh grade and MELD score in predicting in-hospital death in patients with bleeding esophageal varices secondary to alcoholic cirrhosis.
Authors: K Thomopoulos; G Theocharis; K Mimidis; Ch Lampropoulou-Karatza; E Alexandridis; V Nikolopoulou Journal: Dig Liver Dis Date: 2006-09-26 Impact factor: 4.088