Enric Reverter1, Puneeta Tandon2, Salvador Augustin3, Fanny Turon4, Stefania Casu4, Ravin Bastiampillai2, Adam Keough2, Elba Llop4, Antonio González3, Susana Seijo4, Annalisa Berzigotti4, Mang Ma2, Joan Genescà5, Jaume Bosch1, Joan Carles García-Pagán1, Juan G Abraldes6. 1. Hepatic Hemodynamic Laboratory, Liver Unit, Hospital Clínic, Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas, Barcelona, Spain. 2. Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada. 3. Liver Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain. 4. Hepatic Hemodynamic Laboratory, Liver Unit, Hospital Clínic, Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain. 5. Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas, Barcelona, Spain; Liver Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain. 6. Hepatic Hemodynamic Laboratory, Liver Unit, Hospital Clínic, Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas, Barcelona, Spain; Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada. Electronic address: juan.g.abraldes@ualberta.ca.
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with cirrhosis with acute variceal bleeding (AVB) have high mortality rates (15%-20%). Previously described models are seldom used to determine prognoses of these patients, partially because they have not been validated externally and because they include subjective variables, such as bleeding during endoscopy and Child-Pugh score, which are evaluated inconsistently. We aimed to improve determination of risk for patients with AVB. METHODS: We analyzed data collected from 178 patients with cirrhosis (Child-Pugh scores of A, B, and C: 15%, 57%, and 28%, respectively) and esophageal AVB who received standard therapy from 2007 through 2010. We tested the performance (discrimination and calibration) of previously described models, including the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and developed a new MELD calibration to predict the mortality of patients within 6 weeks of presentation with AVB. MELD-based predictions were validated in cohorts of patients from Canada (n = 240) and Spain (n = 221). RESULTS: Among study subjects, the 6-week mortality rate was 16%. MELD was the best model in terms of discrimination; it was recalibrated to predict the 6-week mortality rate with logistic regression (logit, -5.312 + 0.207 • MELD; bootstrapped R(2), 0.3295). MELD values of 19 or greater predicted 20% or greater mortality, whereas MELD scores less than 11 predicted less than 5% mortality. The model performed well for patients from Canada at all risk levels. In the Spanish validation set, in which all patients were treated with banding ligation, MELD predictions were accurate up to the 20% risk threshold. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a MELD-based model that accurately predicts mortality among patients with AVB, based on objective variables available at admission. This model could be useful to evaluate the efficacy of new therapies and stratify patients in randomized trials.
BACKGROUND & AIMS:Patients with cirrhosis with acute variceal bleeding (AVB) have high mortality rates (15%-20%). Previously described models are seldom used to determine prognoses of these patients, partially because they have not been validated externally and because they include subjective variables, such as bleeding during endoscopy and Child-Pugh score, which are evaluated inconsistently. We aimed to improve determination of risk for patients with AVB. METHODS: We analyzed data collected from 178 patients with cirrhosis (Child-Pugh scores of A, B, and C: 15%, 57%, and 28%, respectively) and esophageal AVB who received standard therapy from 2007 through 2010. We tested the performance (discrimination and calibration) of previously described models, including the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and developed a new MELD calibration to predict the mortality of patients within 6 weeks of presentation with AVB. MELD-based predictions were validated in cohorts of patients from Canada (n = 240) and Spain (n = 221). RESULTS: Among study subjects, the 6-week mortality rate was 16%. MELD was the best model in terms of discrimination; it was recalibrated to predict the 6-week mortality rate with logistic regression (logit, -5.312 + 0.207 • MELD; bootstrapped R(2), 0.3295). MELD values of 19 or greater predicted 20% or greater mortality, whereas MELD scores less than 11 predicted less than 5% mortality. The model performed well for patients from Canada at all risk levels. In the Spanish validation set, in which all patients were treated with banding ligation, MELD predictions were accurate up to the 20% risk threshold. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a MELD-based model that accurately predicts mortality among patients with AVB, based on objective variables available at admission. This model could be useful to evaluate the efficacy of new therapies and stratify patients in randomized trials.
Authors: Andrew M Moon; Pamela K Green; Don C Rockey; Kristin Berry; George N Ioannou Journal: Aliment Pharmacol Ther Date: 2019-11-27 Impact factor: 8.171
Authors: Ipshita Gupta; Jonathan M Fenkel; John R Eisenbrey; Priscilla Machado; Maria Stanczak; Corinne E Wessner; Colette M Shaw; Cynthia Miller; Michael C Soulen; Kirk Wallace; Flemming Forsberg Journal: Acad Radiol Date: 2020-12-16 Impact factor: 3.173