Paulina Wieszczy1, Michal F Kaminski2, Robert Franczyk3, Magnus Loberg4, Jarek Kobiela5, Maria Rupinska6, Bartlomiej Kocot7, Maciej Rupinski6, Oyvind Holme8, Urszula Wojciechowska9, Joanna Didkowska9, David Ransohoff10, Michael Bretthauer4, Mette Kalager4, Jaroslaw Regula6. 1. Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Clinical Oncology, Centre of Postgraduate Medical Education, Warsaw, Poland; Department of Oncological Gastroenterology and Department of Cancer Prevention, the Maria Sklodowska-Curie Memorial Cancer Center and Institute of Oncology, Warsaw, Poland; Frontier Science Foundation, Boston, Massachusetts. Electronic address: p.wieszczy@gmail.com. 2. Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Clinical Oncology, Centre of Postgraduate Medical Education, Warsaw, Poland; Department of Oncological Gastroenterology and Department of Cancer Prevention, the Maria Sklodowska-Curie Memorial Cancer Center and Institute of Oncology, Warsaw, Poland; Clinical Effectiveness Research Group, Institute of Health and Society, University of Oslo and Department of Transplantation Medicine Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway. 3. Department of Oncological Gastroenterology and Department of Cancer Prevention, the Maria Sklodowska-Curie Memorial Cancer Center and Institute of Oncology, Warsaw, Poland; Department of Descriptive and Clinical Anatomy, Center of Biostructure Research, Medical University of Warsaw, Poland. 4. Clinical Effectiveness Research Group, Institute of Health and Society, University of Oslo and Department of Transplantation Medicine Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway; Department of Transplantation Medicine and K. G. Jebsen Center for Colorectal Cancer Research, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway. 5. Department of General, Endocrine and Transplant Surgery, Medical University of Gdansk, Gdansk, Poland. 6. Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Clinical Oncology, Centre of Postgraduate Medical Education, Warsaw, Poland; Department of Oncological Gastroenterology and Department of Cancer Prevention, the Maria Sklodowska-Curie Memorial Cancer Center and Institute of Oncology, Warsaw, Poland. 7. Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Clinical Oncology, Centre of Postgraduate Medical Education, Warsaw, Poland. 8. Clinical Effectiveness Research Group, Institute of Health and Society, University of Oslo and Department of Transplantation Medicine Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway; Department of Medicine, Sorlandet Hospital Kristiansand, Kristiansand, Norway. 9. National Cancer Registry of Poland, the Maria Sklodowska-Curie Memorial Cancer Center and Institute of Oncology, Warsaw, Poland. 10. Departments of Medicine and Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina.
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Recommendation of surveillance colonoscopy should be based on risk of colorectal cancer and death after adenoma removal. We aimed to develop a risk classification system based on colorectal cancer incidence and mortality following adenoma removal. METHODS: We performed a multicenter population-based cohort study of 236,089 individuals (median patient age, 56 years; 37.8% male) undergoing screening colonoscopies with adequate bowel cleansing and cecum intubation at 132 centers in the Polish National Colorectal Cancer Screening Program, from 2000 through 2011. Subjects were followed for a median 7.1 years and information was collected on colorectal cancer development and death. We used recursive partitioning and multivariable Cox models to identify associations between colorectal cancer risk and patient and adenoma characteristics (diameter, growth pattern, grade of dysplasia, and number of adenomas). We developed a risk classification system based on standardized incidence ratios, using data from the Polish population for comparison. The primary endpoints were colorectal cancer incidence and colorectal cancer death. RESULTS: We identified 130 colorectal cancers in individuals who had adenomas removed at screening (46.5 per 100,000 person-years) vs 309 in individuals without adenomas (22.2 per 100,000 person-years). Compared with individuals without adenomas, adenomas ≥20 mm in diameter and high-grade dysplasia were associated with increased risk of colorectal cancer (adjusted hazard ratios 9.25; 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.39-13.39, and 3.58; 95% CI 1.96-6.54, respectively). Compared with the general population, colorectal cancer risk was higher or comparable only for individuals with adenomas ≥20 mm in diameter (standardized incidence ratio [SIR] 2.07; 95% CI 1.40-2.93) or with high-grade dysplasia (SIR 0.79; 95% CI 0.39-1.41), whereas for individuals with other adenoma characteristics the risk was lower (SIR 0.35; 95% CI 0.28-0.44). We developed a high-risk classification based on adenoma size ≥20 mm or high-grade dysplasia (instead of the current high-risk classification cutoff of ≥3 adenomas or any adenoma with villous growth pattern, high-grade dysplasia, or ≥10 mm in diameter). Our classification system would reduce the number of individuals classified as high-risk and requiring intensive surveillance from 15,242 (36.5%) to 3980 (9.5%), without increasing risk of colorectal cancer in patients with adenomas (risk difference per 100,000 person-years, 5.6; 95% CI -10.7 to 22.0). CONCLUSIONS: Using data from the Polish National Colorectal Cancer Screening Program, we developed a risk classification system that would reduce the number of individuals classified as high risk and require intensive surveillance more than 3-fold, without increasing risk of colorectal cancer in patients with adenomas. This system could optimize the use of surveillance colonoscopy.
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Recommendation of surveillance colonoscopy should be based on risk of colorectal cancer and death after adenoma removal. We aimed to develop a risk classification system based on colorectal cancer incidence and mortality following adenoma removal. METHODS: We performed a multicenter population-based cohort study of 236,089 individuals (median patient age, 56 years; 37.8% male) undergoing screening colonoscopies with adequate bowel cleansing and cecum intubation at 132 centers in the Polish National Colorectal Cancer Screening Program, from 2000 through 2011. Subjects were followed for a median 7.1 years and information was collected on colorectal cancer development and death. We used recursive partitioning and multivariable Cox models to identify associations between colorectal cancer risk and patient and adenoma characteristics (diameter, growth pattern, grade of dysplasia, and number of adenomas). We developed a risk classification system based on standardized incidence ratios, using data from the Polish population for comparison. The primary endpoints were colorectal cancer incidence and colorectal cancer death. RESULTS: We identified 130 colorectal cancers in individuals who had adenomas removed at screening (46.5 per 100,000 person-years) vs 309 in individuals without adenomas (22.2 per 100,000 person-years). Compared with individuals without adenomas, adenomas ≥20 mm in diameter and high-grade dysplasia were associated with increased risk of colorectal cancer (adjusted hazard ratios 9.25; 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.39-13.39, and 3.58; 95% CI 1.96-6.54, respectively). Compared with the general population, colorectal cancer risk was higher or comparable only for individuals with adenomas ≥20 mm in diameter (standardized incidence ratio [SIR] 2.07; 95% CI 1.40-2.93) or with high-grade dysplasia (SIR 0.79; 95% CI 0.39-1.41), whereas for individuals with other adenoma characteristics the risk was lower (SIR 0.35; 95% CI 0.28-0.44). We developed a high-risk classification based on adenoma size ≥20 mm or high-grade dysplasia (instead of the current high-risk classification cutoff of ≥3 adenomas or any adenoma with villous growth pattern, high-grade dysplasia, or ≥10 mm in diameter). Our classification system would reduce the number of individuals classified as high-risk and requiring intensive surveillance from 15,242 (36.5%) to 3980 (9.5%), without increasing risk of colorectal cancer in patients with adenomas (risk difference per 100,000 person-years, 5.6; 95% CI -10.7 to 22.0). CONCLUSIONS: Using data from the Polish National Colorectal Cancer Screening Program, we developed a risk classification system that would reduce the number of individuals classified as high risk and require intensive surveillance more than 3-fold, without increasing risk of colorectal cancer in patients with adenomas. This system could optimize the use of surveillance colonoscopy.
Authors: Mingyang Song; Louise Emilsson; Soran R Bozorg; Long H Nguyen; Amit D Joshi; Kyle Staller; Jennifer Nayor; Andrew T Chan; Jonas F Ludvigsson Journal: Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol Date: 2020-03-17
Authors: Naim Abu-Freha; Lior H Katz; Revital Kariv; Elez Vainer; Ido Laish; Nathan Gluck; Elizabeth E Half; Zohar Levi Journal: United European Gastroenterol J Date: 2021-06-02 Impact factor: 4.623