Farid Foroutan1,2, Erik Loewen Friesen3, Kathryn Elizabeth Clark4, Shahrzad Motaghi2, Roman Zyla3, Yung Lee2, Rakhshan Kamran2, Emir Ali2, Mitch De Snoo5, Ani Orchanian-Cheff6, Christine Ribic5, Darin J Treleaven5, Gordon Guyatt2, Maureen O Meade2. 1. Ted Rogers Centre for Heart Research, Multi-Organ Transplant Program, Toronto General Hospital, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; farid.foroutan@uhn.ca. 2. Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact and. 3. Library and Information Services, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. 4. Ted Rogers Centre for Heart Research, Multi-Organ Transplant Program, Toronto General Hospital, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. 5. Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; and. 6. Department of Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: With expansion of the pool of kidney grafts, through the use of higher-risk donors, and increased attention to donor management strategies, the 1-year graft survival rate is subject to change. It is, therefore, useful to elucidate 1-year graft survival rates by dissecting the characteristics of the low-risk and high-risk kidney transplant cases. The objective of our study was to evaluate factors purported to influence the risk of 1-year graft loss in kidney transplant recipients. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: We searched bibliographic databases from 2000 to 2017 and included observational studies that measured the association between donor, recipient, the transplant operation, or early postoperative complications, and 1-year death-censored graft loss. RESULTS: We identified 35 eligible primary studies, with 20 risk factors amenable to meta-analysis. Six factors were associated with graft loss, with moderate to high degree of certainty: donor age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.11 per 10-year increase; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.04 to 1.18), extended criteria donors (HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.28 to 1.42), deceased donors (HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.32 to 1.82), number of HLA mismatches (HR, 1.08 per one mismatch increase; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.09), recipient age (HR, 1.17 per 10-year increase; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.25), and delayed graft function (HR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.46 to 2.47) as risk factors for 1-year graft loss. Pooled analyses also excluded, with a high degree of certainty, any associations of cold ischemia time, recipient race, pretransplant body mass index, diabetes, and hypertension with 1-year graft loss. CONCLUSIONS: Recipient age, donor age, standard versus extended criteria donor, living versus deceased donor, HLA mismatch, and delayed graft function all predicted 1-year graft survival. The effect of each risk factor is small.
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: With expansion of the pool of kidney grafts, through the use of higher-risk donors, and increased attention to donor management strategies, the 1-year graft survival rate is subject to change. It is, therefore, useful to elucidate 1-year graft survival rates by dissecting the characteristics of the low-risk and high-risk kidney transplant cases. The objective of our study was to evaluate factors purported to influence the risk of 1-year graft loss in kidney transplant recipients. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: We searched bibliographic databases from 2000 to 2017 and included observational studies that measured the association between donor, recipient, the transplant operation, or early postoperative complications, and 1-year death-censored graft loss. RESULTS: We identified 35 eligible primary studies, with 20 risk factors amenable to meta-analysis. Six factors were associated with graft loss, with moderate to high degree of certainty: donor age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.11 per 10-year increase; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.04 to 1.18), extended criteria donors (HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.28 to 1.42), deceased donors (HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.32 to 1.82), number of HLA mismatches (HR, 1.08 per one mismatch increase; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.09), recipient age (HR, 1.17 per 10-year increase; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.25), and delayed graft function (HR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.46 to 2.47) as risk factors for 1-year graft loss. Pooled analyses also excluded, with a high degree of certainty, any associations of cold ischemia time, recipient race, pretransplant body mass index, diabetes, and hypertension with 1-year graft loss. CONCLUSIONS: Recipient age, donor age, standard versus extended criteria donor, living versus deceased donor, HLA mismatch, and delayed graft function all predicted 1-year graft survival. The effect of each risk factor is small.
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