Chia-Pin Chio1, Wei-Cheng Lo2, Ben-Jei Tsuang3, Chieh-Chun Hu4, Kai-Chen Ku3, Yung-Jen Chen5, Hsien-Ho Lin6, Chang-Chuan Chan7. 1. Innovation and Policy Center for Population Health and Sustainable Environment, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, No. 17, Xuzhou Rd, Taipei, 10055, Taiwan; Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Science, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, No. 17, Xuzhou Rd, Taipei, 10055, Taiwan. 2. Graduate Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, No. 17, Xuzhou Rd, Taipei, 10055, Taiwan; Institute of Statistical Science, Academia Sinica, No. 128, Academia Rd., Sec. 2, Nankang, Taipei, 11529, Taiwan. 3. Department of Environmental Engineering, Innovation and Development Center of Sustainable Agriculture (IDCSA), National Chung-Hsing University, Taiwan. No. 145, Xingda Rd., Taichung, 40227, Taiwan. 4. Graduate Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, No. 17, Xuzhou Rd, Taipei, 10055, Taiwan. 5. Greenpeace East Asia, No.109, Sec. 1, Chongqing S. Rd., Taipei, 10045, Taiwan. 6. Innovation and Policy Center for Population Health and Sustainable Environment, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, No. 17, Xuzhou Rd, Taipei, 10055, Taiwan; Graduate Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, No. 17, Xuzhou Rd, Taipei, 10055, Taiwan. Electronic address: hsienho@ntu.edu.tw. 7. Innovation and Policy Center for Population Health and Sustainable Environment, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, No. 17, Xuzhou Rd, Taipei, 10055, Taiwan; Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Science, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, No. 17, Xuzhou Rd, Taipei, 10055, Taiwan. Electronic address: ccchan@ntu.edu.tw.
Abstract
PURPOSE: To investigate the impact of a planned coal-fired power plant (CFPPT) in Shenao on air quality and health at subnational levels in Taiwan. METHODS: We applied the Gaussian trajectory transfer-coefficient (GTx) model to estimate annual average PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm) increments in 19 Taiwanese cities and counties caused by CFPPT operation. A population health risk assessment was performed by incorporating evidence of the health effects of PM2.5 provided by prospective studies and estimating long-term PM2.5 exposure. Additionally, we considered ischemic heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, and chronic obstruct pulmonary disease as the primary outcomes. The population-attributable fraction was used to estimate the county-level mortality burden attributable to CFPPT-generated PM2.5 in 2025. RESULTS: The estimated annual PM2.5 increments ranged from 0.004 μg/m3 (Taitung County) to 0.28 μg/m3 (Hsinchu County) due to the Shenao CFPPT. The total and premature deaths attributable to PM2.5 from Shenao CFPPT operation in Taiwan during 2025-2040 would be 576 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 537-619) and 145 (95% CI: 136-155), respectively. Notably, we estimated 198 (95% CI: 169-234) deaths and 58 (95% CI: 51-66) premature deaths, respectively, in New Taipei City, which accounted for over a quarter of the total deaths. Overall, the mortality rate attributable to the Shenao CFPPT in Taiwan was 6 per 10,000. CONCLUSION: A scientific approach should be adopted for assessing the impacts of CFPPT operation on population health, which can serve as a valuable policymaking reference for the government.
PURPOSE: To investigate the impact of a planned coal-fired power plant (CFPPT) in Shenao on air quality and health at subnational levels in Taiwan. METHODS: We applied the Gaussian trajectory transfer-coefficient (GTx) model to estimate annual average PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm) increments in 19 Taiwanese cities and counties caused by CFPPT operation. A population health risk assessment was performed by incorporating evidence of the health effects of PM2.5 provided by prospective studies and estimating long-term PM2.5 exposure. Additionally, we considered ischemic heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, and chronic obstruct pulmonary disease as the primary outcomes. The population-attributable fraction was used to estimate the county-level mortality burden attributable to CFPPT-generated PM2.5 in 2025. RESULTS: The estimated annual PM2.5 increments ranged from 0.004 μg/m3 (Taitung County) to 0.28 μg/m3 (Hsinchu County) due to the Shenao CFPPT. The total and premature deaths attributable to PM2.5 from Shenao CFPPT operation in Taiwan during 2025-2040 would be 576 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 537-619) and 145 (95% CI: 136-155), respectively. Notably, we estimated 198 (95% CI: 169-234) deaths and 58 (95% CI: 51-66) premature deaths, respectively, in New Taipei City, which accounted for over a quarter of the total deaths. Overall, the mortality rate attributable to the Shenao CFPPT in Taiwan was 6 per 10,000. CONCLUSION: A scientific approach should be adopted for assessing the impacts of CFPPT operation on population health, which can serve as a valuable policymaking reference for the government.