Unconditional Government Social Cash Transfer in Africa Does not Increase Fertility.

Among policymakers, a common perception surrounding the effects of cash transfer programmes, particularly unconditional programmes targeted to households with children, is that they induce increased fertility. We evaluate the Zambian Child Grant Programme, a government unconditional cash transfer targeted to households with a child under the age of five and examine impacts on fertility and household composition. The evaluation was a cluster randomized control trial, with data collected over four years from 2010 to 2014. Our results indicate there are no programme impacts on overall fertility. Our results contribute to a small evidence base demonstrating that there are no unintended incentives related to fertility due to cash transfers.