| Literature DB >> 31360884 |
Stefania Galimberti1, Meenakshi Devidas2, Ausiliatrice Lucenti1, Giovanni Cazzaniga3, Anja Möricke4, Claus R Bartram5, Georg Mann6, William Carroll7, Naomi Winick8, Michael Borowitz9, Brent Wood10, Giuseppe Basso11, Valentino Conter12, Martin Zimmermann13, Stefan Suciu14, Andrea Biondi12, Martin Schrappe4, Stephen P Hunger15, Maria Grazia Valsecchi1.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to assess whether minimal residual disease (MRD) at the end of induction front-line treatment can serve as a surrogate endpoint for event-free survival (EFS) in childhood B-lineage acute lymphoblastic leukemia.Entities:
Year: 2018 PMID: 31360884 PMCID: PMC6649800 DOI: 10.1093/jncics/pky069
Source DB: PubMed Journal: JNCI Cancer Spectr ISSN: 2515-5091
Observed treatment effects, with corresponding 95% CIs, on MRD and EFS in the main groups*
| EFS | MRD | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group | Treatment | No. | No. EFS events | At 5 y (%) | HR (95% CI)† | Negative (%) | Low positive (%) | Positive (%) | OR (95% CI) |
| AIEOP-BFM | pred | 1495 | 291 | 82.6 | 47.8 | 30.8 | 21.4 | ||
| dexa | 1460 | 210 | 87.9 | 0.72 (0.60 to 0.86) | 51.1 | 32.8 | 16.1 | 0.82 (0.72 to 0.95) | |
| COG-HD MTX | pred | 472 | 104 | 79.7 | 67.0 | 16.7 | 16.3 | ||
| dexa | 458 | 69 | 86.2 | 0.67 (0.49 to 0.90) | 67.5 | 15.7 | 16.8 | 0.99 (0.76 to 1.29) | |
| COG-Capizzi | pred | 475 | 110 | 78.1 | 66.5 | 16.2 | 17.3 | ||
| dexa | 470 | 106 | 78.9 | 0.95 (0.73 to 1.24) | 57.9 | 21.7 | 20.4 | 1.39 (1.08 to 1.8) | |
CI = confidence interval; dexa = dexamethasone; EFS = event-free survival; HR = hazard ratio; MRD = minimal residual disease; OR = odds ratio; pred = prednisone.
HR of event for dexamethasone vs prednisone (reference category) and 95% CI estimated from a Cox model.
(Cumulative) OR of high MRD for dexamethasone vs prednisone (reference category) and 95% CI estimated from a proportional odds model.
Figure 1.A–D) Event-free survival (EFS) curves by treatment within minimal residual disease (MRD) categories: A) overall, B) in AIEOP-BFM, C) in COG-HD, and D) in COG-Capizzi group.
Figure 2.Trial level association between estimated (copula model) treatment effects (dexamethasone vs prednisone) on minimal residual disease (MRD) (odds ratio [OR]) vs event-free survival (EFS) (hazard ratio [HR]) in the 28 trial units that are represented with circles with size proportional to their sample size. Shading distinguishes trial units within main groups, whose overall effects are also represented.
Results of sensitivity and subgroup analyses on surrogacy at patient and trial levels
| Patient-level association | Trial level association | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Type of analysis | No. | θindiv (95% CI) | |
| Overall | 4830 | 3.90 (3.35 to 4.44) | 0.09 (0.00 to 0.29) |
| Sensitivity analyses | |||
| Censoring EFS at 2 years | 4726 | 4.30 (3.38 to 5.21) | 0.02 (0.00 to 0.13) |
| Censoring EFS at 3 years | 4830 | 3.98 (3.30 to 4.66) | 0.05 (0.00 to 0.20) |
| MRD in 2 categories (0 vs >0) | 4830 | 3.38 (2.85 to 3.91) | 0.08 (0.00 to 0.28) |
| MRD in 2 categories (<5 × 104 vs | 4830 | 4.70 (3.95 to 5.46) | 0.06 (0.00 to 0.23) |
| Relapse-free survival | 4830 | 4.25 (3.63 to 4.86) | 0.19 (0.00 to 0.45) |
| Subgroup analyses | |||
| High-risk NCI criteria | 2577 | 3.68 (3.01 to 4.34) | 0.01 (0.00 to 0.06) |
| Age <10 y | 3376 | 4.01 (3.30 to 4.72) | 0.09 (0.00 to 0.29) |
| Excluding COG-Capizzi | 3885 | 3.96 (3.34 to 4.59) | 0.02 (0.00 to 0.12) |
| AIEOP-BFM only (ie, MRD-PCR only) | 2955 | 4.10 (3.35 to 4.85) | 0.01 (0.00 to 0.05) |
| COG only (ie, MRD-Flow only) | 1875 | 3.77 (2.95 to 4.60) | 0.13 (0.00 to 0.49) |
One trial unit (Switzerland) was excluded because there was no EFS event. CI = confidence interval; EFS = event-free survival; MRD = minimal residual disease; NCI = National Cancer Institute.