| Literature DB >> 31258749 |
Ya-Xin Zhao1,2, Yi-Rong Liu1,2, Shao Xie2, Yi-Zhou Jiang1,2, Zhi-Ming Shao1,2,3.
Abstract
Background: Patients with early stage breast cancer with lymph nodes metastasis were proven to have more aggressive biologically phenotypes. This study aimed to build a nomogram to predict lymph node metastasis in patients with T1 breast cancer.Entities:
Keywords: T1 breast cancer; lymph nodes metastasis; predictive nomogram
Year: 2019 PMID: 31258749 PMCID: PMC6584352 DOI: 10.7150/jca.30386
Source DB: PubMed Journal: J Cancer ISSN: 1837-9664 Impact factor: 4.207
Clinicopathologic characteristics of the cohort by lymph node status.
| Whole cohort | Training set | Validation set | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO. | LN negative | LN positive | P | NO. | LN negative | LN positive | P | NO. | LN negative | LN positive | P | |
| <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | ||||||||||
| <45 | 8179 | 7458 (91.18%) | 721 (8.82%) | 4077 | 3717 (91.17%) | 360 (8.83%) | 4102 | 3741 (91.20%) | 361 (8.80%) | |||
| 45-64 | 45088 | 43007 (95.38%) | 2081 (4.62%) | 22472 | 21418 (95.31%) | 1054 (4.69%) | 22616 | 21589 (95.46%) | 1027 (4.54%) | |||
| >64 | 37982 | 36971 (97.34%) | 1011 (2.66%) | 19079 | 18553 (97.24%) | 526 (2.76%) | 18903 | 18418 (97.43%) | 485 (2.57%) | |||
| <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | ||||||||||
| White | 74766 | 71788 (96.02%) | 2978 (3.98%) | 37374 | 35854 (95.93%) | 1520 (4.07%) | 37392 | 35934 (96.10%) | 1458 (3.90%) | |||
| Black | 8194 | 7679 (93.71%) | 515 (6.29%) | 4048 | 3786 (93.53%) | 262 (6.47%) | 4146 | 3893 (93.90%) | 253 (6.10%) | |||
| Others | 8289 | 7969 (96.14%) | 320 (3.86%) | 4206 | 4048 (96.24%) | 158 (3.76%) | 4083 | 3921 (96.03%) | 162 (3.97%) | |||
| 0.897 | 0.563 | 0.439 | ||||||||||
| Married | 55788 | 53453 (95.81%) | 2335 (4.19%) | 27874 | 26701 (95.79%) | 1173 (4.21%) | 27914 | 26752 (95.84%) | 1162 (4.16%) | |||
| Unmarried | 35461 | 33983 (95.83%) | 1478 (4.17%) | 17754 | 16987 (95.63%) | 767 (4.32%) | 17707 | 16996 (95.98%) | 711 (4.02%) | |||
| <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | ||||||||||
| Central | 3577 | 3391 (94.80%) | 186 (5.20%) | 1767 | 1674 (94.74%) | 93 (5.26%) | 1810 | 1717 (94.86%) | 93 (5.14%) | |||
| Inner | 19254 | 18788 (97.58%) | 466 (2.42%) | 9658 | 9422 (97.56%) | 236 (2.44%) | 9596 | 9366 (97.60%) | 230 (2.40%) | |||
| Outer | 39063 | 37267 (95.40%) | 1796 (4.60%) | 19419 | 18511 (95.32%) | 908 (4.68%) | 19644 | 18756 (95.48%) | 888 (4.52%) | |||
| Tail | 427 | 382 (89.46%) | 45 (10.54%) | 216 | 196 (90.74%) | 20 (9.26%) | 211 | 186 (88.15%) | 25 (11.85%) | |||
| Overlap | 28928 | 27608 (95.44%) | 1320 (4.56%) | 14568 | 13885 (95.31%) | 683 (4.69%) | 14360 | 13723 (95.56%) | 637 (4.44%) | |||
| <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | ||||||||||
| I | 29859 | 29335 (98.25%) | 524 (1.75%) | 14929 | 14654 (98.16%) | 275 (1.84%) | 14930 | 14681 (98.33%) | 249 (1.67%) | |||
| II | 41097 | 39482 (96.07%) | 1615 (3.93%) | 20542 | 19720 (96.00%) | 822(4.00%) | 20555 | 19762 (96.14%) | 793 (3.86%) | |||
| III | 20293 | 18619 (91.75%) | 1674 (8.25%) | 10157 | 9314 (91.70%) | 843 (8.30%) | 10136 | 9305 (91.80%) | 831 (8.20%) | |||
| <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | ||||||||||
| IDC | 71415 | 68259 (95.58%) | 3156 (4.42%) | 35654 | 34063 (95.54%) | 1591 (4.46%) | 35761 | 34196 (95.62%) | 1565 (4.38%) | |||
| ILC | 6607 | 6364 (96.32%) | 243 (3.68%) | 3299 | 3172 (96.15%) | 127 (3.85%) | 3308 | 3192 (96.49%) | 116 (3.51%) | |||
| Others | 13227 | 12813 (96.87%) | 414 (3.13%) | 6675 | 6453 (96.67%) | 222 (3.33%) | 6552 | 6360 (97.07%) | 192 (2.93%) | |||
| <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | ||||||||||
| T1mi | 1615 | 1589 (98.39%) | 26 (1.61%) | 812 | 802 (98.77%) | 10 (1.23%) | 803 | 787 (98.00%) | 16 (2.00%) | |||
| T1a | 11060 | 10909 (98.63%) | 151 (1.37%) | 5565 | 5486 (98.58%) | 79 (1.42%) | 5495 | 5423 (98.69%) | 72 (1.31%) | |||
| T1b | 28383 | 27770 (97.84%) | 613 (2.16%) | 14309 | 13985 (97.74%) | 324 (2.26%) | 14074 | 13785 (97.95%) | 289 (2.05%) | |||
| T1c | 50191 | 47168 (93.98%) | 3023 (6.02%) | 24942 | 23415 (93.88%) | 1527 (6.12%) | 25249 | 23753 (94.08%) | 1496 (5.92%) | |||
| <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | ||||||||||
| ER+ | 79797 | 76855 (96.31%) | 2942 (3.69%) | 39884 | 38391 (96.26%) | 1493 (3.74%) | 39913 | 38464 (96.37%) | 1449 (3.63%) | |||
| ER- | 11452 | 10581 (92.39%) | 871 (7.61%) | 5744 | 5297 (92.22%) | 447 (7.78%) | 5708 | 5284 (92.57%) | 424 (7.43%) | |||
| <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | ||||||||||
| PR+ | 71263 | 68723 (96.44%) | 2540 (3.56%) | 35561 | 34263 (96.35%) | 1298 (3.65%) | 35702 | 34460 (96.52%) | 1242 (3.48%) | |||
| PR- | 19986 | 18713 (93.63%) | 1273 (6.37%) | 10067 | 9425 (93.62%) | 642 (6.38%) | 9919 | 9288 (93.67%) | 631 (6.36%) | |||
| <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | ||||||||||
| HER2+ | 10813 | 9969 (92.20%) | 844 (7.80%) | 5440 | 5023 (92.33%) | 417 (7.67%) | 5373 | 4946 (92.05%) | 427 (7.95%) | |||
| HER2- | 80436 | 77467 (96.31%) | 2969 (3.69%) | 40188 | 38665 (96.21%) | 1523 (3.79%) | 40248 | 38802 (96.41%) | 1446 (3.59%) | |||
| <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | ||||||||||
| HR+/HER2- | 72579 | 70145 (96.65%) | 2434 (3.35%) | 36268 | 35014 (96.54%) | 1254 (3.46%) | 36311 | 35131 (96.75%) | 1180 (3.25%) | |||
| HR-/HER2+ | 2913 | 2641 (90.67%) | 272 (9.33%) | 1493 | 1347 (90.22%) | 146 (9.78%) | 1420 | 1294 (91.13%) | 126 (8.87%) | |||
| HR+/HER2+ | 7900 | 7328 (92.76%) | 572 (7.24%) | 3947 | 3676 (93.13%) | 271 (6.87%) | 3953 | 3652 (92.39%) | 301 (7.61%) | |||
| TNBC | 7857 | 7322 (93.19%) | 535 (6.81%) | 3920 | 3651 (93.14%) | 269 (6.86%) | 3937 | 3671 (93.24%) | 266 (6.76%) | |||
Notes: Central: code C500 and C501; Inner: code C502 and C503; Outer: code C504 and C505; Tail: code C506; Overlap: code C508 and C509. From SEER program coding and staging manual 2015, coding guideline breast C500-C509. Abbreviations: IDC: invasive ductal carcinoma. ILC: invasive ductal carcinoma. ER: estrogen receptor. PR: progesterone receptors. HER2: human epidermal growth factor receptor 2. TNBC: Triple Negative Breast Cancer. LN: lymph nodes.
Multivariate logistic regression analysis of possible variables in predicting positive lymph nodes in training set.
| OR | 95% CI | P | |
|---|---|---|---|
| P<0.001 | |||
| <45 | 1.67 | 1.47-1.90 | |
| 45-64 | Reference | Reference | |
| >64 | 0.63 | 0.57-0.70 | |
| P<0.001 | |||
| White | Reference | Reference | |
| Black | 1.31 | 1.14-1.50 | |
| Others | 0.82 | 0.69-0.97 | |
| P<0.001 | |||
| Central | 1.22 | 0.97-1.52 | |
| Inner | 0.49 | 0.42-0.57 | |
| Outer | Reference | Reference | |
| Tail | 1.68 | 1.04-2.73 | |
| Overlap | 0.99 | 0.89-1.10 | |
| P<0.001 | |||
| I | 0.55 | 0.48-0.63 | |
| II | Reference | Reference | |
| III | 1.67 | 1.49-1.87 | |
| P=0.138 | |||
| IDC | Reference | Reference | |
| ILC | 0.89 | 0.77-1.03 | |
| Others | 1.11 | 0.92-1.34 | |
| P<0.001 | |||
| T1mi | 0.15 | 0.08-0.29 | |
| T1a | 0.25 | 0.20-0.32 | |
| T1b | 0.43 | 0.38-0.49 | |
| T1c | Reference | Reference | |
| P<0.001 | |||
| HR+/HER2- | Reference | Reference | |
| HR-/HER2+ | 1.90 | 1.56-2.31 | |
| HR+/HER2+ | 1.34 | 1.16-1.54 | |
| TNBC | 1.09 | 0.93-1.27 |
Notes: T1mic:0-1mm, T1a:2-5mm, T1b:6-10mm, T1c:11-20mm. Abbreviations: IDC: invasive ductal carcinoma. ILC: invasive ductal carcinoma. ER: estrogen receptor. PR: progesterone receptors. HER2: human epidermal growth factor receptor 2. TNBC: Triple Negative Breast Cancer.
Figure 1Nomogram predicting the probability of positive lymph nodes.
Figure 2Calibration plot of the nomogram for the probability of positive lymph nodes (bootstrap 1000 repetitions) .
Figure 3Validation of the nomogram. A. Internal validation using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) is 0.733, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.7222-0.7437. B. External validation using ROC. The AUC is 0.741, 95% CI: 0.7305-0.752
Univariate logistic regression analysis of total points in predicting positive lymph nodes in training set and validation set.
| Training set | Validation set | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OR | 95%CI | P | OR | 95%CI | P | |
| P<0.001 | P<0.001 | |||||
| Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | |||
| 4.15 | 3.77-4.57 | 4.53 | 4.10-5.00 | |||
Notes: low score:<=182; high score:>182. T1mic:0-1mm, T1a:2-5mm, T1b:6-10mm, T1c:11-20mm.Abbreviations: IDC: invasive ductal carcinoma. ILC: invasive ductal carcinoma. ER: estrogen receptor. PR: progesterone receptors. HER2: human epidermal growth factor receptor 2. TNBC: Triple Negative Breast Cancer.