| Literature DB >> 31064416 |
W Tanner Porter1, Peter J Motyka2, Julie Wachara2, Zachary A Barrand2, Zahraa Hmood2, Marya McLaughlin2, Kelsey Pemberton2, Nathan C Nieto2.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Tick-borne disease is the result of spillover of pathogens into the human population. Traditionally, literature has focused on characterization of tick-borne disease pathogens and ticks in their sylvatic cycles. A limited amount of research has focused on human-tick exposure in this system, especially in the Northeastern United States. Human-tick interactions are crucial to consider when assessing the risk of tick-borne disease since a tick bite is required for spillover to occur.Entities:
Keywords: Amblyomma; Borrelia; Citizen science; Dermacentor; Ixodes; Lyme disease; Tick-borne disease; Ticks
Mesh:
Year: 2019 PMID: 31064416 PMCID: PMC6505254 DOI: 10.1186/s12942-019-0173-0
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Int J Health Geogr ISSN: 1476-072X Impact factor: 3.918
Fig. 1County level distribution of total submitted ticks (a) and I. scapularis submissions (b)
Percentage of ticks collected by citizen scientists per species and state [% (#/n, 95% CI)]
|
|
|
| |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connecticut | 56.1 (105/187, 48.7-63.3) | 42.2 (79/187, 35.1–49.7) | 0.5 (1/187, 0–3.4) |
| Massachusetts | 59.9 (430/718, 56.2–63.5) | 39.1 (281/718, 35.6–42.8) | 0.7 (5/718, 0.3–1.7) |
| Maine | 63.8 (339/531, 59.6–67.9) | 33.5 (178/531, 29.5–37.7) | 1.3 (7/531, 0.6–2.8) |
| New Hampshire | 46.2 (152/329, 40.7–51.8) | 51.1 (168/329, 45.5–56.6) | 0.3 (1/329, 0–2) |
| New Jersey | 36.9 (149/404, 32.2–41.8) | 32.9 (133/404, 28.4–37.8) | 29.5 (119/404, 25.1–34.2) |
| New York | 69.4 (686/988, 66.4–72.3) | 19.1 (189/988, 16.8–21.8) | 9.3 (92/988, 7.6–11.3) |
| Pennsylvania | 63.3 (609/962, 60.2–66.3) | 33.8 (325/962, 30.8–36.9) | 1.5 (14/962, 0.8–2.5) |
| Rhode Island | 74.5 (35/47, 59.4–85.6) | 23.4 (11/47, 12.8–38.4) | 2.1 (1/47, 0.1–12.7) |
| Vermont | 72.6 (69/95, 62.4–81) | 25.3 (24/95, 17.2–35.4) | 1.1 (1/95, 0.1–6.6) |
Fig. 2Seasonality of tick submissions by census division (a), tick species (b), and I. scapularis by life stage (c)
Fig. 3Citizen scientist reported activity during tick exposure
Fig. 4County level prevalence of B. burgdorferi s.l. (Lyme group) (a), hard tick relapsing fever (TBRF) (b), counties with < 10 ticks were excluded
Prevalence of associated pathogens for I. scapularis by reported citizen scientist activity [% (# / n, 95% CI)]
| Hard-tick relapsing fever | ||
|---|---|---|
| Community level recreation | 16.3 (105/643, 13.6–19.5) | 1.2 (8/643, 0.6–2.5) |
| Daily activities | 15 (61/406, 11.8–19) | 0.7 (3/406, 0.2–2.3) |
| Gardening, yard work, mowing | 21.1 (110/521, 17.7–24.9) | 1.5 (8/521, 0.7–3.1) |
| Outdoor recreation | 22.4 (74/330, 18.1–27.4) | 1.2 (4/330, 0.4–3.3) |
| Unknown | 23.4 (51/218, 18.1–29.7) | 2.8 (6/218, 1.1–6.2) |
| Walking/walking pet | 24.1 (110/456, 20.3–28.4) | 2 (9/456, 1–3.8) |
Spearman rank correlation (ρ) of county I. scapularis submissions compared to reported CDC Lyme disease cases in 2016
| Census division | ρ | |
|---|---|---|
| Connecticut | New England | 0.61 |
| Massachusetts | New England | 0.27 |
| Maine | New England | 0.85 |
| New Hampshire | New England | 0.90 |
| New Jersey | Middle Atlantic | 0.76 |
| New York | Middle Atlantic | 0.59 |
| Pennsylvania | Middle Atlantic | 0.52 |
| Rhode Island | New England | 0.90 |
| Vermont | New England | 0.76 |
Results of model selection using citizen science to explain CDC reported Lyme disease cases in 2016
| Model | Model parameters |
| Deviance |
| Null deviance | Residual deviance | AIC | ΔAIC | MAE | RMSE | NRMSE | ρ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 262.7 | 253.3 | 2498 | – | 94.1 | 131.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | ||||
| 1 | 9.4 | 0.002 | ||||||||||
| 2 | 430.2 | 242.4 | 2398.2 | 99.8 | 66.5 | 107.3 | 0.91 | 0.77 | ||||
| 1 | 15.6 | < 0.00001 | ||||||||||
| State | 8 | 147.9 | < 0.00001 | |||||||||
| Submissions: State | 8 | 24.4 | 0.002 | |||||||||
| 3 | 536.9 | 239.4 | 2345.3 | 152.7 | 60.7 | 101.7 | 0.86 | 0.83 | ||||
| 1 | 19.6 | < 0.00001 | ||||||||||
| State | 8 | 185.9 | < 0.00001 | |||||||||
| Population | 1 | 61.2 | < 0.00001 | |||||||||
| Submissions: State | 8 | 30.9 | 0.00001 |
Fig. 5Performance of CS based model predictions compared to actual CDC reported Lyme disease cases in 2016. Four elements have been included to improve interpretation: (1) 1:1 black line indicating a perfect model; (2) grey ribbon indicating one standard deviation of the reported Lyme disease cases from the 1:1 line; and (3) points colored based on U.S. Census Division (New England = blue, Middle Atlantic = red)
Fig. 6Performance of CS based model predictions by division (a) and state (b) compared to actual CDC reported Lyme disease cases in 2016. Three elements have been included to improve interpretation: (1) 1:1 black line indicating a perfect model; (2) grey ribbon indicating one standard deviation of the reported Lyme disease cases from the 1:1 line; and (3) points colored based on division (New England = blue, Middle Atlantic = red)