| Literature DB >> 31064141 |
Abstract
The definition of test cut-offs is a critical determinant of many paired and unitary measures of diagnostic or screening test accuracy, such as sensitivity and specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and correct classification accuracy. Revision of test cut-offs from those defined in index studies is frowned upon as a potential source of bias, seemingly accepting any biases present in the index study, for example related to sample bias. Data from a large pragmatic test accuracy study examining the Mini-Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination (MACE) were interrogated to determine optimal test cut-offs for the diagnosis of dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) using either the maximal Youden index or the maximal correct classification accuracy. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and precision recall (PR) curves for dementia and MCI were also plotted, and MACE predictive values across a range of disease prevalences were calculated. Optimal cut-offs were found to be a point lower than those defined in the index study. MACE had good metrics for the area under the ROC curve and for the effect size (Cohen's d) for both dementia and MCI diagnosis, but PR curves suggested the superiority for MCI diagnosis. MACE had high negative predictive value at all prevalences, suggesting that a MACE test score above either cut-off excludes dementia and MCI in any setting.Entities:
Keywords: Mini-Addenbrooke’s Cognitive Examination; dementia; diagnosis; mild cognitive impairment
Year: 2019 PMID: 31064141 PMCID: PMC6627673 DOI: 10.3390/diagnostics9020051
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Diagnostics (Basel) ISSN: 2075-4418
Figure 1Mini-Addenbrooke’s Cognitive Examination (MACE) scores versus patient diagnosis (n = 755). MCI: mild cognitive impairment; SMC: subjective memory complaint.
Diagnosis of dementia: paired measures of discrimination at various MACE cut-offs.
| Cut-off | Sensitivity (= Recall); Specificity | False Positive Rate (FPR); False Negative Rate (FNR) | PPV (= Precision); NPV | LR+; LR− | CUI+; CUI− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤29/30 | 1.00; 0.02 | 0.98; 0 | 0.15; 1.00 | 1.02; 0 | 0.15; 0.02 |
| ≤28/30 | 0.99; 0.06 | 0.94; 0.01 | 0.16; 0.97 | 1.05; 0.16 | 0.16; 0.05 |
| ≤27/30 | 0.99; 0.13 | 0.87; 0.01 | 0.17; 0.99 | 1.14; 0.07 | 0.17; 0.13 |
| ≤26/30 | 0.99; 0.22 | 0.78; 0.01 | 0.18; 0.99 | 1.27; 0.04 | 0.18; 0.22 |
| ≤25/30 * | 0.99; 0.32 | 0.68; 0.01 | 0.20; 0.99 | 1.45; 0.03 | 0.20; 0.32 |
| ≤24/30 | 0.98; 0.41 | 0.59; 0.02 | 0.23; 0.99 | 1.66; 0.04 | 0.23; 0.41 |
| ≤23/30 | 0.98; 0.49 | 0.51; 0.02 | 0.25; 0.99 | 1.91; 0.04 | 0.25; 0.49 |
| ≤22/30 | 0.97; 0.56 | 0.44; 0.03 | 0.28; 0.99 | 2.23; 0.05 | 0.27; 0.55 |
| ≤21/30 * | 0.95; 0.64 | 0.36; 0.05 | 0.32; 0.99 | 2.64; 0.08 | 0.30; 0.63 |
| ≤20/30 | 0.91; 0.71 | 0.29; 0.09 | 0.36; 0.98 | 3.11; 0.12 | 0.33; 0.70 |
| ≤19/30 | 0.86; 0.76 | 0.24; 0.14 | 0.38; 0.97 | 3.51; 0.19 | 0.33; 0.74 |
| ≤18/30 | 0.80; 0.80 | 0.20; 0.20 | 0.42; 0.96 | 4.03; 0.25 | 0.34; 0.77 |
| ≤17/30 | 0.74; 0.82 | 0.18; 0.26 | 0.42; 0.95 | 4.11; 0.32 | 0.31; 0.78 |
| ≤16/30 | 0.72; 0.86 | 0.14; 0.28 | 0.48; 0.95 | 5.24; 0.33 | 0.35; 0.82 |
| ≤15/30 | 0.66; 0.90 | 0.10; 0.34 | 0.53; 0.94 | 6.29; 0.38 | 0.35; 0.85 |
| ≤14/30 | 0.59; 0.92 | 0.08; 0.41 | 0.56; 0.93 | 7.11; 0.45 | 0.33; 0.86 |
| ≤13/30 | 0.48; 0.93 | 0.07; 0.52 | 0.57; 0.91 | 7.36; 0.55 | 0.27; 0.85 |
CUI+ and CUI−: positive and negative clinical utility indices; LR+ and LR−: positive and negative likelihood ratios; NPV: negative predictive value; PPV: positive predictive value. * Test cut-off established in index study (Hsieh et al. 2015 [1]).
Diagnosis of dementia: unitary measures of discrimination at various MACE cut-offs.
| Cut-off | Acc; Inacc | Y | PSI | II | DOR | SUI | F Measure (F1 Score) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤29/30 | 0.17; 0.83 | 0.02 | 0.15 | −0.66 | ∞ | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| ≤28/30 | 0.20; 0.80 | 0.05 | 0.13 | −0.61 | 6.72 | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| ≤27/30 | 0.26; 0.74 | 0.12 | 0.16 | −0.48 | 17.3 | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| ≤26/30 | 0.37; 0.63 | 0.21 | 0.17 | −0.33 | 31.9 | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| ≤25/30 * | 0.42; 0.58 | 0.31 | 0.19 | −0.17 | 52.0 | 0.52 | 0.34 |
| ≤24/30 | 0.49; 0.51 | 0.39 | 0.22 | −0.01 | 38.7 | 0.64 | 0.37 |
| ≤23/30 | 0.56; 0.44 | 0.47 | 0.24 | 0.12 | 52.8 | 0.74 | 0.40 |
| ≤22/30 | 0.63; 0.37 | 0.53 | 0.27 | 0.25 | 47.7 | 0.82 | 0.44 |
| ≤21/30 * | 0.69; 0.31 | 0.59 | 0.31 | 0.37 | 32.2 | 0.93 | 0.48 |
| ≤20/30 | 0.74; 0.26 | 0.619 | 0.34 | 0.48 | 25.1 | 1.03 | 0.51 |
| ≤19/30 | 0.77; 0.23 | 0.614 | 0.35 | 0.54 | 18.9 | 1.07 | 0.53 |
| ≤18/30 | 0.80; 0.20 | 0.60 | 0.38 | 0.60 | 16.0 | 1.11 | 0.55 |
| ≤17/30 | 0.81; 0.19 | 0.56 | 0.37 | 0.62 | 12.8 | 1.09 | 0.54 |
| ≤16/30 | 0.84; 0.16 | 0.58 | 0.43 | 0.68 | 16.1 | 1.17 | 0.58 |
| ≤15/30 | 0.859; 0.14 | 0.56 | 0.46 | 0.72 | 16.5 | 1.20 | 0.59 |
| ≤14/30 | 0.867; 0.13 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 0.74 | 15.8 | 1.19 | 0.57 |
| ≤13/30 | 0.866; 0.13 | 0.41 | 0.49 | 0.73 | 13.3 | 1.12 | 0.52 |
Acc: correct classification accuracy; DOR: diagnostic odds ratio; II: identification index; Inacc: inaccuracy; PSI: predictive summary index; Sens: sensitivity; Spec: specificity; SUI: summary utility index; Y: Youden index. * Test cut-off established in index study (Hsieh et al. 2015 [1]).
Diagnosis of dementia: “number needed to” measures (rounded to next highest integer value) and “likelihood to be diagnosed or misdiagnosed” at various MACE cut-offs.
| Cut-off | NND (= 1/Y) | NNP (= 1/PSI) | NNM (= 1/Inacc) | NNS (= 1/II) | NNSU (= 1/SUI) | LDM (= NNM/NND; NNM/NNP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤29/30 | 50 | 7 | 2 | −2 | 7 | 0.04; 0.29 |
| ≤28/30 | 20 | 8 | 2 | −2 | 5 | 0.10; 0.25 |
| ≤27/30 | 9 | 7 | 2 | −3 | 4 | 0.22; 0.29 |
| ≤26/30 | 5 | 6 | 2 | −4 | 3 | 0.40; 0.33 |
| ≤25/30 * | 4 | 6 | 2 | −7 | 2 | 0.50; 0.33 |
| ≤24/30 | 3 | 5 | 2 | −108 | 2 | 0.67; 0.40 |
| ≤23/30 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 1.00; 0.60 |
| ≤22/30 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1.50; 0.75 |
| ≤21/30 * | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2.00; 1.00 |
| ≤20/30 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2.00; 1.33 |
| ≤19/30 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2.50; 1.67 |
| ≤18/30 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2.50; 1.67 |
| ≤17/30 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3.00; 2.00 |
| ≤16/30 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3.50; 2.33 |
| ≤15/30 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4.00; 2.67 |
| ≤14/30 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4.00; 2.67 |
| ≤13/30 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2.67; 2.67 |
LDM: likelihood to diagnose or misdiagnose; NND: number needed to diagnose; NNM: number needed to misdiagnose; NNP: number needed to predict; NNS: number needed to screen; NNSU: number needed for screening utility. * Test cut-off established in index study (Hsieh et al. 2015 [1]).
Diagnosis of MCI: paired measures of discrimination at various MACE cut-offs.
| Cut-off | Sensitivity (= Recall); Specificity | False Positive (FPR); False Negative (FNR) | PPV (= Precision); NPV | LR+; LR− | CUI+; CUI− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤29/30 | 1.00; 0.03 | 0.97; 0 | 0.35; 1.00 | 1.03; 0 | 0.35; 0.03 |
| ≤28/30 | 1.00; 0.09 | 0.91, 0 | 0.37; 1.00 | 1.09; 0 | 0.37; 0.09 |
| ≤27/30 | 0.99; 0.20 | 0.80; 0.01 | 0.40; 0.99 | 1.25; 0.02 | 0.40; 0.20 |
| ≤26/30 | 0.98; 0.32 | 0.68; 0.02 | 0.43; 0.96 | 1.45; 0.07 | 0.42; 0.31 |
| ≤25/30 * | 0.95; 0.46 | 0.54; 0.05 | 0.48; 0.95 | 1.76; 0.10 | 0.46; 0.44 |
| ≤24/30 | 0.90; 0.57 | 0.43; 0.10 | 0.53; 0.92 | 2.11; 0.17 | 0.48; 0.52 |
| ≤23/30 | 0.82; 0.64 | 0.36; 0.18 | 0.55; 0.87 | 2.29; 0.29 | 0.45; 0.56 |
| ≤22/30 | 0.73; 0.72 | 0.28; 0.27 | 0.58; 0.84 | 2.63; 0.37 | 0.42; 0.60 |
| ≤21/30 * | 0.64; 0.79 | 0.21; 0.36 | 0.61; 0.80 | 2.99; 0.46 | 0.39; 0.63 |
| ≤20/30 | 0.54; 0.84 | 0.16; 0.46 | 0.63; 0.77 | 3.33; 0.55 | 0.34; 0.65 |
| ≤19/30 | 0.47; 0.88 | 0.12; 0.53 | 0.67; 0.76 | 3.81; 0.60 | 0.31; 0.67 |
| ≤18/30 | 0.37; 0.89 | 0.11; 0.63 | 0.65; 0.73 | 3.56; 0.70 | 0.24; 0.65 |
LR+; LR− = positive and negative likelihood ratio; CUI+; CUI− = positive and negative clinical utility index. * = test cut-off established in index study (Hsieh et al. 2015 [1]).
Diagnosis of MCI: unitary measures of discrimination at various MACE cut-offs.
| Cut-off | Acc; Inacc | Y (= Sens + Spec − 1) | PSI (= PPV + NPV − 1) | II (= 2(Acc − 1)) | DOR (= LR+/LR−) | SUI (= CUI+ + CUI−) | F Measure (F1 Score) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤29/30 | 0.37; 0.63 | 0.03 | 0.35 | −0.26 | ∞ | 0.38 | 0.52 |
| ≤28/30 | 0.40; 0.60 | 0.09 | 0.37 | −0.20 | ∞ | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| ≤27/30 | 0.48; 0.52 | 0.19 | 0.39 | −0.05 | 55.4 | 0.60 | 0.57 |
| ≤26/30 | 0.55; 0.45 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.10 | 20.9 | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| ≤25/30 * | 0.63; 0.37 | 0.41 | 0.43 | 0.26 | 17.9 | 0.90 | 0.64 |
| ≤24/30 | 0.69; 0.31 | 0.47 | 0.45 | 0.37 | 12.2 | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| ≤23/30 | 0.70; 0.30 | 0.46 | 0.42 | 0.41 | 8.00 | 1.01 | 0.66 |
| ≤22/30 | 0.73; 0.27 | 0.45 | 0.42 | 0.45 | 7.13 | 1.02 | 0.65 |
| ≤21/30* | 0.73; 0.27 | 0.43 | 0.41 | 0.47 | 6.45 | 1.02 | 0.62 |
| ≤20/30 | 0.73; 0.27 | 0.38 | 0.40 | 0.47 | 6.07 | 0.99 | 0.58 |
| ≤19/30 | 0.74; 0.26 | 0.35 | 0.43 | 0.47 | 6.33 | 0.98 | 0.55 |
| ≤18/30 | 0.71; 0.29 | 0.26 | 0.38 | 0.43 | 5.09 | 0.89 | 0.48 |
Acc: correct classification accuracy; DOR: diagnostic odds ratio; II: identification index; Inacc: inaccuracy; PSI: predictive summary index; SUI: summary utility index; Y: Youden index. * Test cut-off established in index study (Hsieh et al. 2015 [1]).
Diagnosis of MCI: “number needed to” measures (rounded to next highest integer value) and “likelihood to be diagnosed or misdiagnosed” at various MACE cut-offs.
| Cut-off | NND (= 1/Y) | NNP (= 1/PSI) | NNM (= 1/Inaccuracy) | NNS (= 1/II) | NNSU (= 1/SUI) | LDM (= NNM/NND; NNM/NNP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤29/30 | 34 | 3 | 2 | −4 | 3 | 0.06; 0.67 |
| ≤28/30 | 12 | 3 | 2 | −6 | 3 | 0.17; 0.67 |
| ≤27/30 | 6 | 3 | 2 | −21 | 2 | 0.33; 0.67 |
| ≤26/30 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 0.75; 1.00 |
| ≤25/30 * | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1.00; 1.00 |
| ≤24/30 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1.33; 1.33 |
| ≤23/30 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1.33; 1.33 |
| ≤22/30 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1.33; 1.33 |
| ≤21/30 * | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1.33; 1.33 |
| ≤20/30 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1.33; 1.33 |
| ≤19/30 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1.33; 1.33 |
| ≤18/30 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1.00; 1.33 |
LDM: likelihood to diagnose or misdiagnose; NND: number needed to diagnose; NNM: number needed to misdiagnose; NNP: number needed to predict; NNS: number needed to screen; NNSU: number needed for screening utility. * Test cut-off established in index study (Hsieh et al. 2015 [1]).
Figure 2MACE receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots for the diagnosis of dementia (upper; area under the curve (AUC) = 0.89) and MCI (lower; AUC = 0.81) with chance diagonal (y = x) and anti-diagonal (y = 1 − x) lines.
Figure 3MACE precision recall (PR) curves for the diagnosis of dementia (lower) and MCI (upper); note the reversal of position versus ROC curves.
MACE predictive values at differing disease prevalence of dementia and MCI (0.05–0.4).
| Prevalence | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.1 | 0.15 (Observed) | 0.2 | 0.29 (Observed) | 0.4 | |
| PPV dementia (cut-off ≤20/30) | 0.14 | 0.26 | 0.36 | 0.44 | - | 0.68 |
| NPV dementia (cut-off ≤20/30) | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.97 | - | 0.92 |
| PPV MCI (cut-off ≤24/30) | 0.10 | 0.19 | - | 0.34 | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| NPV MCI (cut-off ≤24/30) | 0.99 | 0.98 | - | 0.96 | 0.92 | 0.90 |