| Literature DB >> 31039662 |
Brent McSharry1, Lahn Straney2, Janet Alexander3, Tom Gentles4, David Winlaw5,6, John Beca1, Johnny Millar7,8, Frank Shann7,8, Barry Wilkins9, Andrew Numa10, Christian Stocker11, Simon Erickson12, Anthony Slater11.
Abstract
Background Outcomes for pediatric cardiac surgery are commonly reported from international databases compiled from voluntary data submissions. Surgical outcomes for all children in a country or region are less commonly reported. We aimed to describe the bi-national population-based outcome for children undergoing cardiac surgery in Australia and New Zealand and determine whether the Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery ( RACHS ) classification could be used to create a model that accurately predicts in-hospital mortality in this population. Methods and Results The study was conducted in all children's hospitals performing cardiac surgery in Australia and New Zealand between January 2007 and December 2015. The performance of the original RACHS -1 model was assessed and compared with an alternative RACHS - ANZ (Australia and New Zealand) model, developed balancing discrimination with parsimonious variable selection. A total of 14 324 hospital admissions were analyzed. The overall hospital mortality was 2.3%, ranging from 0.5% for RACHS category 1 procedures, to 17.0% for RACHS category 5 or 6 procedures. The original RACHS -1 model was poorly calibrated with death overpredicted (1161 deaths predicted, 289 deaths observed). The RACHS - ANZ model had better performance in this population with excellent discrimination (Az- ROC of 0.830) and acceptable Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit ( P=0.216). Conclusions The original RACHS -1 model overpredicts mortality in children undergoing heart surgery in the current era. The RACHS - ANZ model requires only 3 risk variables in addition to the RACHS procedure category, can be applied to a wider range of patients than RACHS -1, and is suitable to use to monitor regional pediatric cardiac surgery outcomes.Entities:
Keywords: cardiac surgery; congenital heart disease; outcome and process assessment; pediatric; risk model
Mesh:
Year: 2019 PMID: 31039662 PMCID: PMC6512128 DOI: 10.1161/JAHA.118.011390
Source DB: PubMed Journal: J Am Heart Assoc ISSN: 2047-9980 Impact factor: 5.501
Figure 1Flow diagram for cases analyzed over 9 years. *Includes 6 patients aged over 18 years and 36 patients receiving surgery for acquired heart disease; †Includes 7 patients aged over 18 years receiving surgery for acquired heart disease. RACHS‐ANZ indicates Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery Score, Australia and New Zealand.
RACHS‐1 Risk Categories in All Patients and in Subgroups of Patients Aged >18 Years and Patients Who Received Surgery for Acquired Heart Disease
| RACHS‐1 Risk Category | All Cases | Surgery for Acquired Heart Disease | Age >18 Years | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. of Cases | No. of Deaths (%) | No. of Cases | No. of Deaths (%) | No. of Cases | No. of Deaths (%) | |
| 1 | 1758 | 8 (0.5) | 8 | 1 (12.5) | 13 | 0 |
| 2 | 5033 | 38 (0.8) | 64 | 1 (1.6) | 30 | 0 |
| 3 | 5207 | 104 (2.0) | 537 | 7 (1. 3) | 55 | 1 (1.8) |
| 4 | 1388 | 85 (6.1) | 28 | 3 (10.7) | 3 | 1 (33) |
| 5 | 23 | 6 (26.1) | 0 | … | 0 | … |
| 6 | 376 | 62 (16.5) | 2 | 0 | 0 | … |
| Total | 13 785 | 303 (2.2) | 639 | 12 (1.9) | 101 | 2 (2.0) |
RACHS indicates Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery Score.
Cardiac Surgery Procedures in 539 Hospital Admissions Where a RACHS Procedure Code Could Not Be Assigned
| Procedure | Cases | Deaths |
|---|---|---|
| Pacemaker insertion or replacement | 191 | 2 |
| Heart transplant | 52 | 1 |
| PDA surgery ≤30 d | 43 | 1 |
| Pulmonary venous stenosis repair | 7 | 1 |
| Fontan conversion | 2 | 0 |
| Cardiac surgery other | 244 | 14 |
| Total | 539 | 19 |
PDA indicates patent ductus arteriosus.
Risk Factors for Mortality
| No. of Cases | No. of Deaths | |
|---|---|---|
| RACHS procedure category 1 | 1758 | 8 (0.5) |
| RACHS procedure category 2 | 5033 | 38 (0.8) |
| RACHS procedure category 3 | 5207 | 104 (2.0) |
| RACHS procedure category 4 | 1388 | 85 (6.1) |
| RACHS procedure category 5 | 23 | 6 (26.1) |
| RACHS procedure category 6 | 376 | 62 (16.5) |
| Combination procedure | 3681 | 118 (3.2) |
| Major noncardiac structural anomaly | 939 | 45 (4.8) |
| ICU before surgery | 1742 | 142 (8.2) |
| Age ≤30 d | 2726 | 184 (6.8) |
| Age 31 d–1 y | 5025 | 80 (1.6) |
| Weight ≤2.5 kg | 383 | 46 (12.0) |
ICU indicates intensive care unit; RACHS, Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery Score.
Inclusive of acquired heart disease and those aged over 18 years.
Deaths during the same hospital admission the procedure occurred.
Figure 2Four continuous variables plotted as smooths added to generalized additive models containing RACHS2‐4, RACHS5 or 6, and ICU before surgery. Dashed lines represent 2 standard errors above and below the estimate of the smooth. A, Weight in kg. B, Age in years. C, Weight transformed as weight <4.0 kg. D, Age transformed as days <2 years. ICU indicates intensive care unit; RACHS, Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery Score.
Recalibrated RACHS‐1 and RACHS‐ANZ Models Applied to the Population Used for the Original Version of RACHS‐1, and the Final RACHS‐ANZ Model Applied to the Population Inclusive of Children With Acquired Heart Disease and Adults With Congenital Heart Disease
| Recalibrated RACHS‐1 | RACHS‐ANZ—Limited | RACHS‐ANZ—Final Model | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OR (95% CI) | OR (95% CI) | OR (95% CI) | Coefficient (95% CI) | |
| RACHS 1 (reference) | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | ··· |
| RACHS 2 | 1.20 (0.53–2.74) | 1.38 (0.61–3.14) | 1.23 (0.57–2.67) | 0.2081 (−0.5666 to 0.9828) |
| RACHS 3 | 2.88 (1.31–6.34) | 3.09 (1.41–6.76) | 2.74 (1.32–5.69) | 1.0071 (0.2747–1.7395) |
| RACHS 4 | 5.51 (2.42–12.54) | 5.70 (2.54–12.76) | 5.09 (2.39–10.87) | 1.6280 (0.8704–2.3856) |
| RACHS 5 | 22.25 (6.41–77.16) | |||
| RACHS 6 | 16.14 (6.94–37.55) | |||
| RACHS 5 or 6 | 13.18 (5.76–30.20) | 11.23 (5.14–24.55) | 2.4189 (1.6371–3.2008) | |
| Neonate | 4.32 (2.84–6.56) | |||
| Infant | 2.07 (1.35–3.18) | |||
| Premature | 2.37 (1.72–3.28) | |||
| Combination procedure | 1.39 (1.08–1.80) | |||
| Major noncardiac structural anomaly | 2.46 (1.73–3.48) | |||
| ICU before surgery | 2.21 (1.68–2.89) | 2.29 (1.76–2.99) | 0.8294 (0.5648–1.0940) | |
| Weight <4.0 kg (per kg) | 2.35 (1.89–2.92) | 2.34 (1.89–2.89) | 0.8482 (0.6352–1.0612) | |
| Days <2 y (per d) | 1.0008 (1.0001–1.0014) | 1.0008 (0.0002–1.0014) | 0.000780 (0.000160–0.001399) | |
| Constant | −5.7416 (−6.4577 to −5.0256) | |||
ANZ indicates Australia and New Zealand; ICU, intensive care unit; OR, odds ratio; RACHS, Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery Score.
Limited to those aged 18 years or less without acquired heart disease.
ICU before surgery: code as 1 if the patient was managed in ICU immediately before surgery or 0 if the patient was admitted to ICU for recovery following surgery.
Weight <4.0 kg=4.0—weight in kg. Code as zero if weight ≥4.0 kg.
Days <2 years=730—age in days. Code as zero if age ≥730 days.