Thomas R Hird1,2, Ella Zomer3, Alice Owen3, Lei Chen4, Zanfina Ademi3, Dianna J Magliano3,4, Danny Liew3. 1. School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia. Tom.Hird@monash.edu. 2. Department of Clinical Diabetes and Epidemiology, Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. Tom.Hird@monash.edu. 3. School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia. 4. Department of Clinical Diabetes and Epidemiology, Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Abstract
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Diabetes increases the risk of premature death and reduces work productivity. We estimated the impact of diabetes in China in terms of mortality, years of life lost, and productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs) lost in the Chinese population. METHODS: Life table modelling was used with simulated follow-up of those with diabetes in the Chinese population of working age (20-49 years in women and 20-59 years in men) until retirement age (50 years for women and 60 years for men). Data regarding the prevalence of diabetes, as well as excess mortality, labour force dropout and productivity loss attributable to diabetes, were taken from published sources. Models were constructed for the cohort with diabetes and repeated for the same cohort assuming that they had no diabetes. The differences in number of deaths, years of life lived and PALYs lived between the two models reflected the impact of diabetes. The WHO standard 3% annual discount rate was applied to years of life and PALYs lived. RESULTS: In 2017, an estimated 56.4 million people of working age in China (7.1%) had diabetes. With simulated follow-up until retirement, those with diabetes were predicted to experience an estimated 4.1 million more deaths, the loss of an additional 22.7 million years of life (3.7%) and the loss of an additional 75.8 million PALYs (15.1%). This was equivalent to an average of 1.3 PALYs lost per person with diabetes. Based on gross domestic product (GDP) per full-time worker in 2017, the loss in PALYs equated to a total of Chinese ¥17.4 trillion (US$2.6 trillion) in lost GDP owing to reduced productivity, with an average of ¥307,925 (US$45,959) lost per person with diabetes. CONCLUSIONS/ INTERPRETATION: Our study demonstrates the significant cumulative impact of diabetes on productivity across the working lifetime in the Chinese population, highlighting the potential economic benefits of diabetes prevention in the longer term.
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Diabetes increases the risk of premature death and reduces work productivity. We estimated the impact of diabetes in China in terms of mortality, years of life lost, and productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs) lost in the Chinese population. METHODS: Life table modelling was used with simulated follow-up of those with diabetes in the Chinese population of working age (20-49 years in women and 20-59 years in men) until retirement age (50 years for women and 60 years for men). Data regarding the prevalence of diabetes, as well as excess mortality, labour force dropout and productivity loss attributable to diabetes, were taken from published sources. Models were constructed for the cohort with diabetes and repeated for the same cohort assuming that they had no diabetes. The differences in number of deaths, years of life lived and PALYs lived between the two models reflected the impact of diabetes. The WHO standard 3% annual discount rate was applied to years of life and PALYs lived. RESULTS: In 2017, an estimated 56.4 million people of working age in China (7.1%) had diabetes. With simulated follow-up until retirement, those with diabetes were predicted to experience an estimated 4.1 million more deaths, the loss of an additional 22.7 million years of life (3.7%) and the loss of an additional 75.8 million PALYs (15.1%). This was equivalent to an average of 1.3 PALYs lost per person with diabetes. Based on gross domestic product (GDP) per full-time worker in 2017, the loss in PALYs equated to a total of Chinese ¥17.4 trillion (US$2.6 trillion) in lost GDP owing to reduced productivity, with an average of ¥307,925 (US$45,959) lost per person with diabetes. CONCLUSIONS/ INTERPRETATION: Our study demonstrates the significant cumulative impact of diabetes on productivity across the working lifetime in the Chinese population, highlighting the potential economic benefits of diabetes prevention in the longer term.
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