| Literature DB >> 30998739 |
Gabriel Šaffa1,2, Anna Maria Kubicka3, Martin Hromada1,4, Karen Leslie Kramer5.
Abstract
Timing of menarche has largely been studied in the context of a secular trend. However, since mortality and fertility rates are fundamental demographic factors linked to a population's developmental and reproductive characteristics, we expect that the timing of menarche, a precondition to reproduction, is also associated with these vital rates. We conduct an analysis of 89 countries and 21 demographic, socioeconomic, nutritional, and educational variables selected for their known influence on menarche. Model results predict that a country's fertility and adult female mortality rates are significant predictors of mean age at menarche, while other covariates are not. Specifically, menarche is delayed in countries with high mortality and high fertility, which may be proxies for assessing overall environmental quality. We emphasize that, for a comprehensive understanding of the timing of menarche, it is critical to take into account both individual- and population-level influences.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2019 PMID: 30998739 PMCID: PMC6472797 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0215462
Source DB: PubMed Journal: PLoS One ISSN: 1932-6203 Impact factor: 3.240
Fig 1Global distribution of the dependent covariate mean age at menarche for 89 countries included in the sample.
Each country is plotted by mean age at menarche from a given year. Legend shows scaled ages at menarche.
Definitions and sources of the analysed covariates.
| Covariate | Definition | Reference |
|---|---|---|
| Mean age at menarche | age of first menstruation | various sources (see |
| Life expectancy at birth | total (years) | [ |
| Fertility rate | total (children per woman) | [ |
| Adolescent fertility (15–19) | births per 1,000 women aged 15–19 | [ |
| Maternal mortality ratio | modelled estimate, per 100,000 live births | [ |
| Infant mortality | per 1,000 live births | [ |
| Under-five mortality | per 1,000 live births | [ |
| Adult female mortality | probability of female dying between the ages 15–60 | [ |
| Adult male mortality | probability of male dying between the ages 15–60 | [ |
| Total adult mortality | probability of dying between the ages 15–60 | average adult male/female mortality rate |
| Average size of household | average number of persons per household | various sources (see |
| Rural population | % of total population | [ |
| Energy use | kg of oil | [ |
| Fossil fuel energy consumption | % of total energy consumption | [ |
| Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita | current US$ | [ |
| Livestock production index | meat, milk, dairy, eggs, etc. | [ |
| Food production index | food crops (except coffee and tea) | [ |
| Energy consumption per capita | kcal/person/day | various sources (see |
| Sugar consumption | g/person/day | [ |
| Body mass index (BMI) female | kg/m2 | [ |
| Out of primary school, female | number of females not enrolled in either primary or secondary schools | [ |
| Primary completion rate, female | % of females entrants in the last grade of primary education | [ |
Standardised coefficients in the PLS regression.
| Covariate | N | Standardized model coefficients |
|---|---|---|
| Life expectancy at birth | 89 | -5.224* |
| Fertility rate | 89 | 0.972* |
| Adolescent fertility (15–19) | 89 | -0.432 |
| Maternal mortality ratio | 73 | -0.767 |
| Infant mortality | 87 | -4.438* |
| Under-five mortality | 87 | 4.069* |
| Adult female mortality | 87 | 0.877* |
| Adult male mortality | 87 | -0.899* |
| Total adult mortality | 87 | -0.014 |
| Average size of household | 70 | -0.607 |
| Rural population | 89 | -0.065 |
| Energy use | 79 | -0.607 |
| Fossil fuel energy consumption | 78 | -0.402 |
| Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita | 84 | -0.572 |
| Livestock production index | 89 | -0.101 |
| Food production index | 89 | -0.144 |
| Energy consumption per capita | 72 | 0.021 |
| Sugar consumption | 75 | 0.014 |
| Body mass index (BMI) female | 79 | 0.021 |
| Out of primary school female | 56 | 0.316 |
| Primary completion rate female | 55 | -0.470 |
Asterisk (*) indicates covariates selected for GLM analysis.
Fig 2Graphical representation of the main findings.
Arrows depict bidirectional associations of individual- and population-level covariates with the timing of menarche. Circles filled with italic and bold point to the model results.
General linear model of the effects of fertility rate and adult female mortality on the mean age at menarche calculated for 89 countries.
| Covariate | Estimate | Standard error | t-value | p-value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intercept | 12.277 | 0.181 | 67.673 | <0.001 |
| Fertility rate | 0.196 | 0.074 | 2.651 | 0.009 |
| Adult female mortality | 0.003 | 0.001 | 2.209 | 0.029 |
AIC = 203.81